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This, from @HarvardHBS, is the best analysis I've seen on what happened in Italy.…
Many lessons here. Most notable to me: 1. PARTIAL SOLUTIONS DON'T WORK. Italy locked down only high risk areas ("red zones"), but it only facilitated spread as people fled lockdown areas. "Italy followed the spread rather than prevented it." Exactly what the US is doing.
2. DEPLOY THE FULL PLAYBOOK. Lombardy (10M) and Veneto (5M) both closed shops and did social distancing. Veneto added testing, active contact tracing, good controls to protect health care & other essential workers, and home care for most cases. Lombardy had 5K deaths; Veneto 287.
3. ACCURATE, TIMELY DATA IS ESSENTIAL. Decision-makers have been hindered by lack of standardized data on the trajectory of spread, hospitalizations, deaths at local and regional levels.
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