🚨 URGENT!
IHME now expects NY to need 1,341 more ICUs beds A DAY; today through April 8th up from a daily average of 338 the last five days.
Background: IHME expects 11,782 ICUs by April 9. Actual use as of yesterday is 3,731. This is a difference of 8,051. Split in 6 days.
IHME now expects NY to need 1,341 more ICUs beds A DAY; today through April 8th up from a daily average of 338 the last five days.
Background: IHME expects 11,782 ICUs by April 9. Actual use as of yesterday is 3,731. This is a difference of 8,051. Split in 6 days.
Over the last 8 days, this is by how much ICU use went up a day in NY:
172 Fri 3/27/20
282 Sat 3/28/20
315 Sun 3/29/20
367 Monday 3/30/20
303 Tuesday 3/31/20
374 Wed 4/1/20
335 Thur 4/2/20
Today through April 8, their math suggests the average will be 1,341 a day.
OMG.
172 Fri 3/27/20
282 Sat 3/28/20
315 Sun 3/29/20
367 Monday 3/30/20
303 Tuesday 3/31/20
374 Wed 4/1/20
335 Thur 4/2/20
Today through April 8, their math suggests the average will be 1,341 a day.
OMG.
The reason I am so alarmed about IHME’s expectation for April 9 is that 8 days ago they expected NY to need 10,839 ICUs by yesterday. It turned out being 3,731. I am aure they refined their models to be accurate in 6 days from now. Those now-accurate numbers are chilling.
Friday April 3d, New York had 4,126 Corona ICU beds in use. As of moments ago, @IHME_UW projects that NY needed 12,011 Sat April 4th. This means that ICU bed use jumped 7,885 from one day to the next.
ICU bed use rose:
367 Mo 3/30
303 Tues
374 Wed
335 Thur
395 Fri 4/3/20
ICU bed use rose:
367 Mo 3/30
303 Tues
374 Wed
335 Thur
395 Fri 4/3/20
NO! NO! NO! This CAN NOT GO UNANSWERED! 36 hours ago, @IHME_UW still predicted NY will need 12,782 beds by its April 9 peak, but now they say peak is April 8th at 6,664 beds. IHME models” which I saw all along to be wrong is setting nationwide/NY policy. ENOUGH ALREADY!
