I understand @ishaantharoor may not have chosen the title and that presenting this as a clash of two leaders’ ego is catchy. But this is missing major issues, at least four of them :
1/ How it started: there is a constant disregard in reports for the fact that FR-TUR tensions started and continue in Northeastern #Syria because Ankara’s milit interventions disturbed the fight c/ #ISIS. Why is it important ?
Because the US was the main player on the ground and the failure to find an understanding with TUR led to the escalation we saw in October 2019 when TUR intervened and the US withdrew without consulting its European allies.
At the time, France made proposals to address both TUR security concerns re #PKK and European security priorities re #ISIS. Ankara refused, as it refused what Washington proposed. The problem isn’t so much the disagreement as the refusal to find a mutually acceptable solution.
Remember the « NATO is brain dead » comment ? It was exactly about the inability of the US, Turkey and NATO in general to deal with the Northeastern problem. At that time allied buried their head in the sand. Why is it still relevant today? economist.com/europe/2019/11…
Because, some of the armed groups TUR is using in Northern Syria are borderline Jihadis and the main Jihadi one #HTS has influenced the killer of Samuel Paty. And today these groups are burning French flags while waving the ISIS one.
So I find the tendancy to report about FR-TUR tensions as an isolated problem between two annoying allies deeply unhelpful. These tensions have real security implications for everyone & Washington is part of this discussion since the beginning. #S400#EastMed#Libya#Karabakh
2/ Obviously there are domestic politics here. But it doesn’t mean an equivalence in the policies Macron & Erdogan design. It is questionable to compare a balanced reform of the French secular framework to TUR multiple foreign military interventions & crushing of any opposition.
Macron’s speech on Islam in France and the speech in honour of Samuel Paty were purely domestic matters. But Erdogan turned them into an international controversy for geopolitical gain. Nobody asked anything to Erdogan with regards to Samuel Paty, he made it a FR-TUR issue.
3/ Presenting this as a clash of leaders’ ego is problematic because it serves the TUR PR strategy to make this about Macron personally while ignoring all the issues at stake. Compare TUR and FR statements and you will see who needs the fight.
And presenting the laïcité framework as an attempt to « change religious practices » is misleading. The laïcité is about keeping a dialog with religious orga about security & health issues without intervening in religious matters.
The notion that France is cracking down on its 5M citizen of Muslim faith after the killing of Paty is simply not true. @john_lichfield said it better than I can.
A number of French Muslim organisations like the @CfcmOfficiel expressed themselves very clearly on this. There is a democratic debate in France about the Government’s policy. Support & opposition to it are expressed and that’s the way it should be before a Parliamentary debate.
I tried to summarise what was at stake for French society here & there is obviously a lot to unpack. But shaky equivalence based on an over personalisation of the issue isn’t going to help. washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
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THREAD – One of the many questions related to the #US election next week is the future of American engagement in the #MiddleEast. All actors in the region are already hedging their bets. But what about #Europe’s interest in the Middle East & North Africa ?
Through 50+ interviews, I have looked back at the evolution of transatlantic cooperation in the MENA region since the end of the Cold War & tried in this @WashInstitute piece to assess the potential implications of the US election next week. washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
Let’s start with a paradox: while for many in the MENA, Europe & the US represent the « West », there is no clear “Western” framework of cooperation about the Middle East.
I have been in DC for more than a year now and I'm struck by the soul searching going on in the US expert community regarding what to do in the #MiddleEast. Numerous articles discuss a potential #US "withdrawal" from the Middle East. Here is a thread and a reading list:
A first dimension of this debate is a 2016 article from Andrew J Bacevich, making a general case against interventionism and a call to "end endless wars". foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
But I feel that the discussion intensified in 2019 when voices like @Martin_Indyk, a Peace Process veteran, echoed similar concerns based on the analysis that only few vital American interests were still at stake in the Middle East. wsj.com/articles/the-m…
2/ A more serious analysis of the rethoric wld show TUR officials started issuing insulting statements against Macron personally in 2019, while his own statements focused on policy disagreements with TUR. There are simply no “rhetorical broadsides against Erdogan”.
Sérieux les gars, les clichés sur le mandat français et OSS117 c’est un peu court pour commenter la visite du PR au à #Beyrouth, et c’est quand même d’un grand manque de respect pour ce que vivent les Libanais depuis plusieurs mois, pour plusieurs raisons:
Le niveau de destruction causée par l’explosion dans une zone éco essentielle et la profondeur de la crise politique et sociale libanaise devraient inviter à regarder ce que cette visite permet et ce qu’elle dit de la situation, et pas se regarder le nombril français.
Ceux qui s’intéressent sincèrement au Liban savent qu’une crise politique sans précédent est en cours depuis le début du mouvement de protestation en octobre, notamment suscité par l’exaspération face à la crise éco et la mauvaise gouvernance, également rappelée par l’explosion.
2/ Three paradoxes: i/UN/NGOs do great work assisting millions but accept regime hijacking of aid ii/EU&US provided $30bn of UN aid since 2011 but don't push back on aid diversion iii/UN/NGOs centralize ops in Damascus but don't fix the system & ignore a fragmented huma reality.
3/ i/ The huma response in #Syria is a logistical masterpiece & an ethical conundrum: the UN has set one of the most robust coordination systems but the huma community is paralyzed on diversion, despite multiple reports 👉 @HaidHaid22@hrw@TheSyriaCmpgn@ScprSyria@annie_sparrow
The Syrian regime asks the #US and the #EU to lift its economic sanctions to let him respond to the #coronavirus outbreak in #Syria. Let’s look at these sanctions to see what the regime wants to achieve with that. Spoiler: not assisting its population. syria.news/40b096fb-19032…
1/ Western sanctions against the Syrian regime are not preventing the regime to provide medical assistance to Syrians. There is no general embargo on #Syria. #US and #EU sanctions do NOT target the medical sector.
2/ 71 entities and 277 individuals are targeted by #EU sanctions because they are tied to the repression or funding of the regime. Sanctions also target sectors at the heart of the financial networks of the regime : weapons, tech tools for repression, crude oil import...