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Some excellent points here.

MRP is simply a cleverer model for turning voting intention data into seats.

If you have incorrect polling data, it will cleverly turn that into incorrect seats with more precision.

I had a clever model in #GE17 and look how that turned out! /1
I am not a pollster and so had to rely on published polls that turned out to be wrong in the North & Midlands.

Had the polls been right, my seat forecast would have been near perfect as I demonstrated in my post mortem.

marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk… /2
My biggest regret in #GE2017 was not to realise that this chart I created in my most widely read post during the campaign contained a clue that Labour was doing better than expected in Wales, North & Midlands.

marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk…

/3
When I publish my forecast next week, I will be looking for similar clues regarding polling errors.

After all, 5 out of the last 7 elections have seen at least one party experienced a polling error of 4 points or more.

marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk…

/end
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Nigel Marriott
@MarriottNigel
My #GE2019 poll tracker is now up to date on my blog here bit.ly/34u8Bky.

As before, I've compared latest polls to election results from GE74 to #GE17 & broken the data down by region, #GE2017, #Brexit & class.

Full details in the blog but here are the key pts. /1
#ConservativeParty are back to #GE2017 levels in all regions. Votes are being redistributed from remainers to leavers and the key to a majority is the efficiency of this transfer. /2
#Labour are around 10 pts behind where they were in #GE2017. Can they repeat the comeback of GE17 again? The key is reclaiming the defectors to the #LibDems and they have been doing that but they are leaking to the #Tories as well. /3
Read 6 tweets
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Nigel Marriott
@MarriottNigel
OK, if you want to follow the #conservativeleadership race, here is a summary of the declared candidates so far. I've done this as a #Diversity analysis i.e. how much they differ from the norm but I also found it a very good way of getting to know their backgrounds @sundersays /1
Nominations close on June 10th so if people are interested, I will keep this up to date. Once the nominees are known, I will switch to a political summary instead e.g. voting record, years as MP, etc /2
Sticking with the diversity angle, it is interesting to see how #Conservative Prime Ministers started to diverge from the norm after the abolition of the magic circle and the candidates' Difference from Norm scores are on average similar to their predecessors. /3
Read 7 tweets
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Nigel Marriott
@MarriottNigel
How can Corbyn get into Downing St at the next election if one comes soon? Here is my thread looking at what needs to change from the 2017 #GeneralElection when #Labour won 262 seats. /1
To become the largest party, Labour needs to gain around 30 seats. It so happens that there are 29 seats where Labour is in 2nd place less than 3 pts behind the incumbent. 21 are held by the #CONSERVATIVES, 7 by the SNP, 1 by #plaidcymru. /2
To get a working majority, Labour needs to gain 61 seats given Sinn Fein don't take their seats. It so happens there are 62 seats where Labour is in 2nd place less than 7 pts behind the incumbent. 45 are held by the Conservatives, 16 by the SNP, 1 by Plaid Cymru /3
Read 19 tweets

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Ahmad Barclay
@bothness
1/ I've been following the debate about #TacticalVoting in UK #GeneralElection2019, and particularly the controversy about @BestForBritain's site getvoting.org, which is accused of giving "bogus" advice based on a fairly opaque methodology theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
2/ So... I decided to get the constituency-by-constituency data from this site and a couple of others (tactical.vote & tacticalvote.co.uk) to see how they compare, and whether they pass a basic "plausibility" test based on % voting swing needed from 2017 results
3/ I narrowed down my analysis to the 317 seats won by @Conservatives at the 2017 General election, since these are the core focus for tactical voting, whether to get the #ToriesOut or #StopBrexit. This chart shows which party came second in each of these constituencies in 2017
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VapingIT, SPE, EEI
@Vapingit
Hi, @FrankPallone

I was one of the alleged bots #NotABot defamed for that @JoeSmyser @DrArturoNJ @NicholsonForNJ @PublicGoodProj @WSJ report.

Shall I expect an invite to @EnergyCommerce offices to sign in, in person, to my account?

We can also discuss manipulation of #data.
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Blayne Haggart
@bhaggart
Since July I've written 47 posts analyzing Sidewalk Labs' plans for Toronto, with my final post (barring some new twist) coming on Friday. So it's an appropriate time for some reflections.
#ONpoli #TOpoli #smartcities #cdnpoli

blaynehaggart.wordpress.com/2019/08/26/liv…
I'm not sure that Torontonians realize the extent to which other countries are following, often in disbelief, the ongoing #Quayside debacle (which is what it is by any objective measure).
Over the past yr I've made several presentations in Europe to smart-city and internet scholars re Quayside. To a person they expressed disbelief that any of this, from the shoddy RFP to the Potemkin consultations to playing fast and loose with data definitions, is even happening.
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FlufferbotResearch
@Tesla_Bear
(1)

So, Elon Musk keeps promising he will produce 5,000 Model 3 a week. Or even 7,000.

But most media forget to ask THE most important question: Is there any demand for 5,000 per week?

The clear answer is: No.

Model 3 orders are currently imploding.

Proof? Read on.

$TSLA
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In this thread, I will present evidence that Model 3 demand in Europe is disastrous. (will cover US later, stay tuned).

Remember, Europe is THE story Tesla is trying to sell now: They claim that US deliveries are slow ONLY because they have to ship all those cars to Europe.
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Katie w/ the long last name
@konstantlykatie
Went to vote today in the advance polls for #KingTownship today. Hadn't received my registration card in the mail but I went anyhow because #democracy.

I had some questions too.
Upon arriving, I was told that I wasn't registered for #municipal voting, and that it was up to me to make sure that I was registered for every election.

So I filled out my document and registered at the polls. Then I voted, as you do.
Now, my address has been the same for the past 16 years. I've been eligible to vote for the last 6.

So why are my parents the only ones in our household who receive voter cards? Why isn't this data already available? 🤔
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