#Hypothesis: Agreement to disengage in Pangong lake was reached in Sept-oct, but #CCP11 backtracked in Oct/nov on expectation of Biden win! Blinken's 6th Feb call to Yang Xi confirmed firm US policy towards China. #Xi gave approval for implantation of Pangong agreement thereafter
2/hy #CCPPLA will not abandon its #Creeping #Acquisition policy on India-Tibet border till there is a border settlement, or we establish #Hard #Deterrence viz #PLA, or both! Indian Nat security apparatus is working on this premise; Post-Galwan,political estblishment is on board!
3/hy Dis-engaging tanks & Heavy armor, from battle field positions, is the first step!
4/hype The 🐉🐍 will come back again (somewhere along Tibet border or in IO) after learning from Galwan & Pangong, just as they did after learning from Doklam. #Military gap filling & #Economic #Decoupling must continue!
5/pla #BeAware When #CCP accuses #India of doing anything bad, note it carefully, as that may exactly what they are doing or planning to do; eg "nibbling unremittingly"! 🧵
6/pla Sham Saran explains what I said in 2/hy ☝🏼about National Security establishment understanding #CCPPlA strategy & tactics : hindustantimes.com/opinion/has-ch…
7/hy Refn hypothesis at start of 🧵, the first signal of Indian military confidence (which I noted) was the announcement (mid-Oct) of Army chief's visit to Nepal (which took place in early Nov). So I date the outline of the withdrawal agreement. A date prior to Oct 15!
8/hy This article dates the broad agreement as having been reached in mid-Sept 2020, though details were probably worked out in subsequent weeks (ie within the sept-oct period I identified in my #Hypothesis)
10/hy The time line of discussions ☝🏼also suggests that the #Russians may be playing an intermediary role, by urging #China to agree to a border settlement with #India, perhaps on the lines of #Chou #EnLai's proposal of 1959 (as also suggested by @rwac48 in @ThePrintIndia ).
11/hy For the record: The three things which made CCP back down: (1) Comprehensive mobilization of the Indian military from may, (2)The heroic response of Indian soldiers at Galwan, (3)) The occupation of heights around Pangong lake at end-Aug.
12/hy In addition, (4) GOI's economic actions helped restore credibility of Indian Govt(damaged by decades of soft response to a variety of aggressive actions), by showing that we were willing to bear econ costs, to signal the seriousness of our intent to defend our territory!

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More from @dravirmani

12 Feb
Our territorial claims are known by our map; Has the "Tibetan Govt in exile", which Indian hawks want India to recognize as the "Govt of Tibet", ever accepted in word or deed, that it's the true boundary between India and Tibet? Has any other country in the world (except Bhutan)?
2/tibet 👍🏼👏👏👏 (incidentally the US has also, directly or indirectly, accepted our boundary in NE). Question mark still remains about #Tibet-#Ladakh boundary!
Read 4 tweets
12 Feb
#HBYN #SciMe With th availability of commercial satellite maps, is it so difficult for researchers to map #CCPPLA's history of #Creeping #Acquisition on Tibet-India border, over 30-40 yrs; so we have clear time lines, & can end th endless bickering among ourselves about facts?🤔
2/agp #SciMe The purpose of satellite based analysis is to determine & time stamp, the facts about roads, defensive/offensive structures & troop movements (if possible), of both countries; These, can then be combined with historical evidence on claims, to do FP/NS analysis!
3/ago This #data gathering by neutral researchers is necessary for convincing #Patriots, who question the factual basis of every national security & foreign policy statement of their democratically elected government ! 😎
Read 6 tweets
11 Feb
#India, #Vietnam and #Bangladesh are Lower Middle Income countries (#LMIC), rest are #MIC or #UMIC (U=upper)
3/ltp More from @davidfickling
Read 6 tweets
2 Dec 20
#India #Agriculture: Facts, data, hurts ideologues, politicians, intellectual hypocrites, and corrupt vested interests; but it's the only basis for good analysis and effective policy.
State List of Constitution:(14)Agriculture, including agricultural education & research; protection against pests and prevention of plant diseases. (26) Trade and commerce within the State subject to the provisions of Entry 33 of List III=>Stat right to make farmer protection law
#SciMe (=scientific method) 1st the data, 2nd the analysis, 3rd the policy analysis and finally the personal views & judgements (in a democracy citizens have a right to express their views freely)
Read 5 tweets
24 Nov 20
We must distinguish between the personal & the public. Citizens have freedom to be offended by anything or anyone. In public space the issue is equality under constitutional laws and equal treatment by Govt in implementing these laws, irrespective of religion, gender, caste, ...
2/eq Equality is part of fundamental structure of the Indian constitution, but some provisions violated equality as a temporary measure, which framers expected to be abolished. Such provisions have also led to laws which violate individual equality as perceived in 21st Century.
3/eq 👆🏼unequal laws need to b abolished to attain equality. A clientelist democracy results in biased application of laws in favor of in-groups and against out-groups in some States(police is State subject)! This can be corrected (only) by reform of the Criminal justice system.
Read 4 tweets

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