Thread by @dravirmani

#Hypothesis: Agreement to disengage in Pangong lake was reached in Sept-oct, but #CCP11 backtracked in Oct/nov on expectation of Biden win! Blinken's 6th Feb call to Yang Xi confirmed firm US policy towards China. #Xi gave approval for implantation of Pangong agreement thereafter

2/hy #CCPPLA will not abandon its #Creeping #Acquisition policy on India-Tibet border till there is a border settlement, or we establish #Hard #Deterrence viz #PLA, or both! Indian Nat security apparatus is working on this premise; Post-Galwan,political estblishment is on board!

3/hy Dis-engaging tanks & Heavy armor, from battle field positions, is the first step!

https://twitter.com/nitingokhale/status/1359822540533682177

4/hype The 🐉🐍 will come back again (somewhere along Tibet border or in IO) after learning from Galwan & Pangong, just as they did after learning from Doklam. #Military gap filling & #Economic #Decoupling must continue!

https://twitter.com/vaibhavup65/status/1359881974995849217

5/pla #BeAware When #CCP accuses #India of doing anything bad, note it carefully, as that may exactly what they are doing or planning to do; eg "nibbling unremittingly"! 🧵

https://twitter.com/VGokhale59/status/1360076107282849792

6/pla Sham Saran explains what I said in 2/hy ☝🏼about National Security establishment understanding #CCPPlA strategy & tactics : hindustantimes.com/opinion/has-ch…

7/hy Refn hypothesis at start of 🧵, the first signal of Indian military confidence (which I noted) was the announcement (mid-Oct) of Army chief's visit to Nepal (which took place in early Nov). So I date the outline of the withdrawal agreement. A date prior to Oct 15!

8/hy This article dates the broad agreement as having been reached in mid-Sept 2020, though details were probably worked out in subsequent weeks (ie within the sept-oct period I identified in my #Hypothesis)

9/hy 8b Link got left out in 8/hy

https://twitter.com/theprintindia/status/1360058805858435074

10/hy The time line of discussions ☝🏼also suggests that the #Russians may be playing an intermediary role, by urging #China to agree to a border settlement with #India, perhaps on the lines of #Chou #EnLai's proposal of 1959 (as also suggested by @rwac48 in @ThePrintIndia ).

11/hy For the record: The three things which made CCP back down: (1) Comprehensive mobilization of the Indian military from may, (2)The heroic response of Indian soldiers at Galwan, (3)) The occupation of heights around Pangong lake at end-Aug.

12/hy In addition, (4) GOI's economic actions helped restore credibility of Indian Govt(damaged by decades of soft response to a variety of aggressive actions), by showing that we were willing to bear econ costs, to signal the seriousness of our intent to defend our territory!