Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jun 12, 2021 23 tweets 22 min read Read on X
Today's #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #ArabianStorms rainfall forecasts follow.

I was wondering if this might happen. With all the moisture streaming along the North African coast and north east from central Africa. Also some forecasts had this indicated as a possibility.
Admittedly the rain is very light. But it is June and close to Solstice, the hottest month in this part of the world. Here we see the broader picture. The #EuropeBigWet is continuing in a fairly stable pattern for another 48 hours still.
Here's a close up of the North Western quadrant with some big storms bursting to life near the Morocco/Algeria border.
Another view of this area showing the rainfall associated with these clouds.
Morocco is supposed to be dry this time of year. In fact they have had a fair bit of rain there continuously since March. [Ref. tripsavvy.com/morocco-weathe…]
To the south east we have the engine room of the West African Monsoon over and inland from Nigeria. Today there are two big storms over Niger and Chad. Both are generating sufficient height to inject moisture into the north easterly jets at around 10,000m alt.
This map shows 300 hpa winds which are as you see heading north east from where those two storms are. This pattern has been place for some time now bringing clouds across Egypt. And this is contributing to the rain over Lebanon this evening.
Here are today's 10-day rainfall forecasts for the broader region three of the four models continue to show a fair bit of #DesertRain.
And here are 48 hour forecasts (rainfall today and tomorrow) from the same four models. Unfortunately its impossible to know which one is getting it right.
Rainfall was light in the #HornofAfrica. #ArabianStorms were also subdued, though there was another storm south of Mecca as the evening approached, the third day running rain has been close to the holy city during a month where the average rainfall is zero.
10-Day rainfall forecasts for June 12th of the #HornOfAfrica including, #Somalia, #Somaliland, #Djibouti, #Ethiopia and parts of #Sudan and #SouthSudan.

+ bonus 12-day forecast from KMA.
48 hour rainfall forecasts for June 12th of the #HornOfAfrica including #Somalia, #Somaliland, #Djibouti, #Ethiopia and parts of #Sudan and #SouthSudan.
Introducing the #MiddleEast segment here's a wind map from this morning. 850hpa is typically about 1500m but probably higher given the heat at the moment. This is the wind that is driving a massive dust river south from Iraq over Kuwait and into Yemen.
You have to look close to see it and its clearer as the sun sets - but this dust river is huge. Interestingly it is also connected to the Central Africa monsoon jet which is bringing the cloud onshore into Lebanon. From there it curls east and then south east picking up the dust.
10-Day June 12th, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
48 Hour June 12th (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
And finally, June 12th 16-day (GFS) and 12-day (KMA) accumulated rainfall forecasts for the Middle East.

The GFS is again showing rains over the Arabian Sea getting very close to Yemen. This 16 day forecast also shows very heavy rains in #Ethopia in bottom left.
And this is relevant to the question of when the #HornOfAfrica Big Rains will begin. On June 8th I addressed this (thread below) in the daily forecasts.
Here's an interim update. We are expecting the Indian Monsoon to be spreading west into Pakistan and into the Arabian Sea. Here are four satellite images each taken at the same time from the 9th 10th 11th and 12th of June.

And this is indeed happening.
Finally. Make sure to check out @Arab_Storms for the latest storm videos, from Oman, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. A small selection follows. Beginning with this video of a thunderstorm downburst, which can generate very strong winds.
This video from Kuwait shows what the dust storm was like today.
And finally some heavy rain run-off in Saudi Arabia today in the Asir Region.
/ENDS

@Threadreaderapp unroll

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Alastair Thompson

Alastair Thompson Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @althecat

Dec 17
The first speaker in this star studded panel here is sober clear and damning.

“… featuring Mustafa Barghouti, Mads Gilbert, Ilan Pappe, and Ingrid Fiskaa – discusses and critically explores three key areas: the present moment where Gaza remains under constant genocidal attack from Israel; the so-called “legitimacy” of the rules-based order (including but not limited to international law) that’s supposed to prevent or stop such violence; and the future of rebuilding Gaza in a way that actually honours the hopes, dreams and aspirations of the Palestinian people.”

The panel is moderated by Paul Salvatori, senior producer and presenter at TRT World.

Oslo Panel for Palestine youtu.be/nwCgY9auyuw?si… via @YouTube
As Christmas and the New Year approach, reflection, both self and outward looking are part of the zeitgeist for the faithful throughout the world.

As it stands this Christmas in Bethlehem will be the “second Christmas during an ongoing Genocide”. Placed in quote marks here because it seems hard to reconcile with reality.

How can this still be continuing?

How is it that the @Statedept even now - 15 months after October 7th and more recently the defeat of both Hezbollah and Assad - is still mostly saying “Israel has a right to defend itself. As massacres of 50-80 Gaza civilians - predominantly women and children - continue to occur on a daily basis.
Could there at least be a Christmas and New Years Truce? A brief silencing of the guns, a break from the endless massacre of innocents via fire-from-the-sky, as if Gaza were now Mordor.

It is certainly already nearly as desolate.

Someone needs to ask Bibi Netanyahu who is unusually and nearly singularly responsibility for all of this. WHEN AND HOW DOES THIS END?
Read 4 tweets
Dec 16
There is a new chapter on the story of Mosab Hassan Yousef.

This is the original production of this. But he will soon be known far better than he was when Chris Cuomo brought his story to life here back in December 2023 at the outset of the war, in the wake of January 7th.

Hamas Founder's Son Turned Israeli Spy - Mosab Hassan Yousef, "The Green... youtu.be/llJxz1pAlQQ?si… via @YouTube
“Hamas’s Aspiration is global”

“The Muslim Brotherhood is Here in the United States.”

For clarification Mosab Hassan is unquestionably completely genuine and in is views, and like me he is a pacifist when it comes to saving human life from conflict. And this as he articulates very very clearly remains his view.

And for this reason - notwithstanding the fact that this latest broadcast is extremely triggering, and will likely soon become very controversial, is also very important.Image
Image
Image
The target of this messaging is Americans. Not me.

And probably not you, even though a large portion of my followers are in the U.S.
Read 19 tweets
Dec 11
Correction I meant to say here:

“The Neighbours & friends of Syria, and international solidarity movements, and all people of good consciousness need to develop a counter strategy to the ongoing U.S-Israel War Drumming - that is now clearly moving U.S. towards a 2003 repeat of the 2nd Gulf War.”

I would proscribe peaceful non-violence myself.
“The media's role in a democratic society in general is to provide the public with an informed basis upon which they can exercise their democratic rights to lobby, and express their views on what should happen to their elected representatives. And nothing changes during wartime.
When measured by this standard I would conclude that the media both here in New Zealand and everywhere else in the Western World – with the exception of the Internet – has failed spectacularly to do its job.”

- Tuesday, 29 April 2003, 3:00 pm
Read 10 tweets
Dec 9
The desire of Genocide -Pro clueless highly paid American pundits to misrepresent current historical events as they unfold in real time in the global real-Politik is far from surprising, but this take from Bill Kristol is about as daft as it is possible to be.

Syria’s HTS & Türkiye led coup which has toppled Assad cane out of the blue. It was not an American-Israeli plot but rather a deftly delivered victory for justice that will have the effect of heading off the U.S. clash with Iran that the genocidal maniac who remains in Power in Israel, for now anyway, had planned.

This will not now be the next chapter in the story of Middle Eastern turmoil. Instead we will now see a flourishing of Middle Eastern led political reform that may finally rid the region of the power designs of the Western Powers “Great Game” who will soon become irrelevant in the region.

Thread….Image
I shall not bother to decide Kristol’s incoherent burbling except to remark that he is missing the real story here.

Arab’s just liberated Arabs in Arabia - as ought to be the case. Whether this was the clear intent of the actions and actors whose planning led up to this moment of clarity in geopolitical history is unclear, but the result is clear.

Syrians are now free. And western powers have been rendered irrelevant except to the extent that they are able to render assistance to the new Free Arab State of Syria in coming months and years. /2
The shear speed with which the events unfolded in Syria was and remains breathtaking. As if perhaps divinely directed.

Even Netanyahu’s response - to bomb Damascus- whilst monstrous in both it’s paranoia and execution is positive, in that it has now ruled Israel completely out of the process of rebuilding Syria which will soon commence.

Netanyahu openly proclaimed his messianic ambition in New York to a Nearly empty UNGA assembly meeting hall, his vision of a greater Israel that included Syria. And no doubt he remains enthralled to these ideas. But by bombing Damascus he just ruled himself out as a partner for peace in the region. /3
Read 11 tweets
Dec 4
Excellent edition of @France24_en The debate.

If you listen/watch you will doubtless come to the conclusion that nobody knows for sure:

1. What exactly has happened in Syria, who backed who…

2. nor what the end game in this HTS launched renewed Civil War in Syria will look like.

3. But there are a lot of interesting theories.

Domino effect? Assad's allies stretched thin as Syrian rebels pounce • F... youtu.be/ZZN1nek4aTg?si… via @YouTube
From my perspective a useful rubric to analyse this is who benefits from this.

The penultimate French speaker - before the American who closed (presumably with a conventional foggy bottom perspective - I.E pro Israel when asked by Picard who is responsible gave I think the clearest answer.

“Ask the Americans” then pointed out that this development comes hot on top of the ceasefire in Lebanon which is far from secure.Image
Image
Image
Image
The debate is exactly that and all speakers are experts in different aspects of the Syrian Question and the players. Which include.

- the rebel group whose lightning speed taking of Aleppo HTS/formerly Al Nusra over the last 4 days initiated this new crisis currently in the north of Syria but which HTS and other anti Assad forces in Syria appear to be intent on heading to Damascus to displace Assad.

Note: As you can see here (map) Damascus is just north of due east of the Israel-Lebanon border south east of Beirut & very close to Israel. (Check out the 1967 war & Angolan Heights to find out why)Image
Read 14 tweets
Dec 3
The war crimes attorney, French, based in Lyon, who lodged the first war crimes complaint against Netanyahu was Giles Devers.

He recently died.

The complaint was based on the #GreatMarchOfReturn IDF operations during which 223 Palestinians were shot
The protests:

30 March 2018 – 27 December 2019
(1 year, 8 months, 3 weeks and 6 days)

…. peaceful. Young people gathered on the border and threw stones at snipers on defensive mounds above the protest area. A varying number of protestors were shot each day. including medics and members of the media.

The protests reached their zenith when Trump was present in Jerusalem for the opening of a U.S. embassy there during his first term as President.

Time magazine coverage time.com/longform/gaza-…Image
Image
Image
Forensic evidence was collected for the prosecution case by a team from Gaza’s Ministry of Health - and supervised by my colleague, Kiwi Journalist Julie Webb Pullman.

And this evidence and formed the substance of the first complaint laid by Advocat Giles Devers of “War Crimes” against Israel’s Govt and the IDF.
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(