I was wondering if this might happen. With all the moisture streaming along the North African coast and north east from central Africa. Also some forecasts had this indicated as a possibility.
Admittedly the rain is very light. But it is June and close to Solstice, the hottest month in this part of the world. Here we see the broader picture. The #EuropeBigWet is continuing in a fairly stable pattern for another 48 hours still.
Here's a close up of the North Western quadrant with some big storms bursting to life near the Morocco/Algeria border.
Another view of this area showing the rainfall associated with these clouds.
Morocco is supposed to be dry this time of year. In fact they have had a fair bit of rain there continuously since March. [Ref. tripsavvy.com/morocco-weathe…]
To the south east we have the engine room of the West African Monsoon over and inland from Nigeria. Today there are two big storms over Niger and Chad. Both are generating sufficient height to inject moisture into the north easterly jets at around 10,000m alt.
This map shows 300 hpa winds which are as you see heading north east from where those two storms are. This pattern has been place for some time now bringing clouds across Egypt. And this is contributing to the rain over Lebanon this evening.
Here are today's 10-day rainfall forecasts for the broader region three of the four models continue to show a fair bit of #DesertRain.
And here are 48 hour forecasts (rainfall today and tomorrow) from the same four models. Unfortunately its impossible to know which one is getting it right.
Rainfall was light in the #HornofAfrica. #ArabianStorms were also subdued, though there was another storm south of Mecca as the evening approached, the third day running rain has been close to the holy city during a month where the average rainfall is zero.
Introducing the #MiddleEast segment here's a wind map from this morning. 850hpa is typically about 1500m but probably higher given the heat at the moment. This is the wind that is driving a massive dust river south from Iraq over Kuwait and into Yemen.
You have to look close to see it and its clearer as the sun sets - but this dust river is huge. Interestingly it is also connected to the Central Africa monsoon jet which is bringing the cloud onshore into Lebanon. From there it curls east and then south east picking up the dust.
10-Day June 12th, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC & KMA weather models.
And finally, June 12th 16-day (GFS) and 12-day (KMA) accumulated rainfall forecasts for the Middle East.
The GFS is again showing rains over the Arabian Sea getting very close to Yemen. This 16 day forecast also shows very heavy rains in #Ethopia in bottom left.
And this is relevant to the question of when the #HornOfAfrica Big Rains will begin. On June 8th I addressed this (thread below) in the daily forecasts.
Here's an interim update. We are expecting the Indian Monsoon to be spreading west into Pakistan and into the Arabian Sea. Here are four satellite images each taken at the same time from the 9th 10th 11th and 12th of June.
And this is indeed happening.
Finally. Make sure to check out @Arab_Storms for the latest storm videos, from Oman, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. A small selection follows. Beginning with this video of a thunderstorm downburst, which can generate very strong winds.
If @realDonaldTrump chooses to join Netanyahu’s genocidal campaign if he is not obeyed …. he WILL find himself indicted in the international criminal court in The Hague.
And he will then have to make a decision on whether he is willing to remain in the U.S.
@realDonaldTrump Should he proceed as he has intimated that he should now be pursued by protestors everywhere he goes.
There is a lot of concern about evacuations of civilians from Gaza in the flotilla as anyone leaving may not be able to return any time soon. /2
But the moral hazard here is palpable. There are thousands of injured and starving mostly women and children. And we saw the young babies dying in the hospitals in the early stages of this war. /3
More and more naval vessels from Europe and the Middle East are being deployed to protect the Global Samir Flotilla as it moves slowly but surely towards Gaza where it intends to deliver aid and global attention. /1
Attacks from drones on the flotilla have resumed and Israel is presumably responsible for this. It is because of this that naval vessels from Europe are now joining the flotilla to protect their citizens rights of travel in international waters. /2
The escalation appears fairly slow at present and the flotilla is still within Greek waters at present /3
The #Samud #GazaFlotilla is currently sailing across the Ionian Sea towards the island archipelago south east of Athens in the Western Mediterranean. Conditions appear good for this leg that departed from Sicily after leaving Tunisia. The Flotilla set off from Barcelona.
2/ this current leg is 860 kms roughly and lead boats in the 51 vessel flotilla are currently approaching south western Greece. You can follow the flotillas progress here >> flotilla-orpin.vercel.app
3/ After two drone attacks on flotilla boats in Tunisia the flotilla sailed first to Sicily where it was joined by several more boats. And this map shows the path of the flotilla so far. The numbers in the dots indicate more vessels joining #GazaFlotilla