Thread by @vipintukur

#DELTA DIARY: It is clear we are now dealing with a virus that spreads far more easily - probably more than twice as easily - as the version that emerged in #Wuhan at the end of 2019 1/

science.thewire.in/health/face-wi…

The #Ro was around 2.5 when the pandemic started in Wuhan and could be as high as 8.0 for the Delta variant 2/

DELTA is evolving: A new, more genetically diverse cluster, lineage AY.1 (which is termed as #Delta+) with a new spike substitution #N417K having immune escape property, has emerged independently in some countries @vinodscaria 3/

The new AY.1 lineage(Delta+) may be resistant to even monoclonal Abs cocktail!
It is quite possible that changes in the virus that make it better at avoiding vaccines could end up compromising its ability to transmit in an absolute sense 4/

#Beta variant - which has a mutation called #E484K that helps evade the immunity but hasn't managed to take off - is an example of this. However, the #Delta does have mutations that both help it spread and partially dodge immunity. Worryingly, it is bolstering it’s arsenals 5/

The #Delta has now evolved in to a SUPER SARS-2 virus! The most transmissible & probably the most immune evader. And, if we believe reports from #China, the most virulent too! 6/

“So are we doomed to a never-ending parade of new and improved variants that get harder and harder to contain? Or is there a limit to how much worse coronavirus can become?” writes @JamesTGallagher in bbc.co.uk/news/health 7/

Most virologists believe that the #SARSCoV2 would become milder in order to spread more easily. And, within a couple of years, should settle as an endemic, #fifth common cold coronavirus causing mild illness mostly in children 8/

science.thewire.in/health/covid-1…

But, there is very little evolutionary pressure on the virus for that to happen.
"We're in a really interesting, intermediate and somewhat unpredictable phase, it is difficult to predict how that's going to play out a year from now” @JamesTGallagher 9/

bbc.com/news/health-57…