Thread by @althecat

It's all set for another big day over the #HornofAfrica today. This big picture view contains some measurements of the monsoon wind plumes which are from Myanmar and India to the Horn.

Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica the Horn and the #MiddleEast follow:

And while its still early, 2.30pm local time, we already have #ArbaianStorms lighting up in Saudi Arabia.

Here's a view of the storms after sunset last night from 7pm to 10pm. At present the storms over Ethiopia appear to die down by midnight. But those further West continue through the night.

Three 10-day (+ one 12-day) accumulated rainfall forecasts for North Africa for June 16th from the GFS, CMC and KMA weather models.

As I put this forecast together something has happened in #SaudiArabia we have not seen so far this year. These #ArabianStorms are smaller and there is a lot more of them, running all the way from Yemen up to Medina and deep into the Saudi Desert.

The average rainfall in the northern parts of this area in June is zero. So far this June most days have been rain days somewhere on this coastline and further north.

Graph below shows mean Makkah rainfall in June. Some sources say zero.
[Src. weather-and-climate.com/average-monthl…]

[I will return to Saudi Arabia later.]

10-Day rainfall forecasts for June 16th of the #HornOfAfrica including, #Somalia, #Somaliland, #Djibouti, #Ethiopia and parts of #Sudan and #SouthSudan.

+ bonus 12-day forecast from KMA.

Notably the forecast models now agree.

48 hour rainfall forecasts for June 16th (today and tomorrow) for the #HornOfAfrica including #Somalia, #Somaliland, #Djibouti, #Ethiopia and parts of #Sudan and #SouthSudan.

An image of the Horn of Africa this evening, coving all the Nile's watersheds. We continue to have strong rains and will expect them to build into the evening.

We have two eyewitness videos of today's rainfall in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia so far from @Arab_Storms.

The first shows a hail shower.

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1405173366764445696?s=20

The second shows water flowing in a river bed in the Al-Shifa Valley, Wadi Al-Faraa area, south of Medina.

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1405181082828374024?s=20

Here is an animation of the rainstorms in #SaudiArabia this evening.

10-Day June 16th, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم

48 Hour June 16th (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم

And finally, June 16th 16-day (GFS) and 12-day (KMA) accumulated rainfall forecasts for the Middle East.

/ENDS

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