Thread by @fetzert

Today is the 5th year anniversary of the 2016 EU referendum vote in which the UK had narrowly voted to #Leave the European Union. Unlike Trump, the impact is permanent and already caused notable damage. Here is a 🧵 of 🧵 with some past work and deliberations on #Brexit... 1/...

In one of the first papers we asked "Who voted for #Brexit?". The paper is a systematic correlational analysis of what is common to #Leave support across districts and within cities & we also show that a #Brexit model can predict LePen voting. Link: goo.gl/VzBo57 2/

Similarly, we augment the analysis using individual level data. This helps tackle whether correlational district level evidence is due to ecological fallacy. Open access at @ejprjournal goo.gl/sPzzwf 3/

But what caused #Brexit? Solid work providing causal evidence is scarce. Work by @PStanig & Colantone suggests that import-competition induced rapid and unfettered structural transformation is to blame 👉 "Global Competition & #Brexit" in @apsrjournal cup.org/3vNgDlh 4/

My own work highlights the importance that post financial crisis #Austerity has played a major role. The work leverages exceptionally granular data and is quite careful on causal identification. Read the paper in @AEAjournals aeaweb.org/articles?id=10… 5/

The paper was extremely widely circulated and obviously attracted criticism. In an @LSEpoliticsblog long read, I address many of these in a fair bit of detail blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/10… 6/

#Austerity mattered not just in 2016 but by creating the the environment in which a referendum would be called. A short story of the 2010 elections, austerity, its fall out in 2015 & the subsequent EU referendum vote is highlighting this: 🧵

https://twitter.com/fetzert/status/1091359096555667461?s=20

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There is also a nice short @econimate explainer video of the #austerity paper 👉 8/

https://twitter.com/fetzert/status/1219663866273128453?s=20

But what do we know about #Brexit's economic consequences? Both since 2016 and since 2019 March 8/

There is excellent work by my @warwickecon colleague @DennisNovy on outward FDI 👉sciencedirect.com/science/articl… or on #Brexit's impact on living standards 👉voxeu.org/article/conseq…, but the #Brexit vote highlighted the dramatic intra UK cleavages. How has #Brexit affected those? 9/

In work summarized by @ChrisGiles_ we show that the regional economic cost of #Brexit are already exacerbating those same cleavages that the EU referendum vote brought to the fore.

https://twitter.com/fetzert/status/1283671558519697409?s=20

10/

There is an interactive visualization of the costs of #Brexit across districts and UK regions which we will update this year with 2019 district level data once that becomes available from the ONS.

https://twitter.com/fetzert/status/1285835100756869120?s=20

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Now that the hardest #Brexit is a political reality & its destructive ideology is alove and well in UK politics we will likely see more work of the costly & painful decoupeling that has started five years ago. Economics research has a lot to offer, so watch the space. End.