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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
@althecat
Jul 6, 2021 • 25 tweets • 25 min read • Read on X
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Over 24hrs 25-60mms rain has fallen over all three Nile tributaries with the heaviest falling over the #Abbay in Ethiopia's highlands which feeds the #GERD. Here we see an image of storms starting up this morning.

Rain forecasts will follow.

Thread contains rainfall update.
I jumped the gun calling the beginning of #GERD filling on1 July - as the big rainy season began.
Official news of filling came yesterday in the form of an objection to the filling from Egypt after being notified by #Ethiopia that it is underway.
#GERD filling is expected to be less than 13.5 Billion Cubic Meters as time ran out to raise the dam to the height needed to hold this amount of water.

When the filling is completed spilling over the center of the dam will resume as you can see in this image below from 2020.
On Thursday the UN Security Council will meet for the second time in 2 years to discuss the dispute over the #GERD filling between Ethiopia and Egypt+Sudan. This @AJEnglish report from last year is about the first meeting.
Full video of the last UNSC meeting is available from the UN Audiovisual Library here >> unmultimedia.org/avlibrary/asse…
[NOTE: These daily rainfall weather bulletins are intended - in large part - to provide useful information to inform this dispute.

Thanks to bountiful rainfall, there is no real concern in 2021 of shortage of water. The larger risk now may be flooding issues.]
Today's rainfall forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica, #NorthAfrica & the #MiddleEast follow. Beginning with North Africa.

Today's big picture shows the region today including a massive storm over West Sudan and today's storms starting up over Ethiopia's highlands.
Today's 10-Day Rainfall forecasts for North Africa from July 6th through July 17th.

All models are now forecasting widespread rainfall over Yemen towards the end of the forecast period.
This image shows rain over the region over the last 48 hours as measured by satellite [Src @Meteoblue]
48-hour rainfall forecasts (today and tomorrow from the same four models: the Euro @ECMWF, U.S. @NOAA's GFS, Canada's CMC and the Korean KMA models.
And finally for #NorthAfrica we have the long-range 16-day (GFS) and 12-day (KMA) forecasts - which are now remarkably well aligned, albeit with the KMA now forecasting rain across Sudan up to the Egyptian border.
Satellite images from this morning.
The first image shows a glimpse of one of the arms of the #GERD dam lake.
The second image shows the entire area of Nile Basin watersheds, including a massive storm front extending from Sudan to Uganda.
Today's July 6th 10-day rainfall forecasts for #Ethiopia (+1 12-day) and the #HornOfAfrica including #Somalia, #Somaliland, eastern parts of #SouthSudan, south eastern parts of Sudan, #Djbouti and #Eritrea.

Significant rains are now forecast for Somaliland.
48 Hour forecasts (today and tomorrow) from the same three models. Over this period significant rainfall is not yet forecast for #Somaliland, but it does appear to be coming soon. #Tigray however has widespread rain.
Today's #ArabianStorms this afternoon.
In today's @Arab_Storms eyewitness videos we have hail in Abha, Saudi Arabia and more torrents in Oman.
.. this last Oman torrent is particularly wide.
10-Day July 7th, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC, KMA & ACG weather models showing even more #DesertRain in #Yemen and #Oman.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
48 Hour July 5th (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC, KMA and ACG weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
Our final rainfall forecasts are long range July 6th rainfall forecasts. The16-day GFS & GEFS models, the 12 day KMA and the 15 day EPS (Euro ensemble) model forecasts for the #MiddleEast.

All now show #DesertRain in #Yemen #Oman and Southern #SaudiArabia
الله أعلم
Our daily rounded picture of the full North Western Hemisphere. Zero hour simulation data from the GFS.

3. Precipitable water PWAT anomaly
2. PWAT (potential rain + energy)
3. MLSP (Mean Sea Level Pressure)
4. 250Hpa (jet stream winds approx 11kms high)
The final animation's today shows an interesting development which may bring #DesertRain even further north in Chad and Sudan in coming days - and a couple of days later in the Western Sahara.
/ENDs

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Dec 17
The first speaker in this star studded panel here is sober clear and damning.

“… featuring Mustafa Barghouti, Mads Gilbert, Ilan Pappe, and Ingrid Fiskaa – discusses and critically explores three key areas: the present moment where Gaza remains under constant genocidal attack from Israel; the so-called “legitimacy” of the rules-based order (including but not limited to international law) that’s supposed to prevent or stop such violence; and the future of rebuilding Gaza in a way that actually honours the hopes, dreams and aspirations of the Palestinian people.”

The panel is moderated by Paul Salvatori, senior producer and presenter at TRT World.

Oslo Panel for Palestine youtu.be/nwCgY9auyuw?si… via @YouTube
As Christmas and the New Year approach, reflection, both self and outward looking are part of the zeitgeist for the faithful throughout the world.

As it stands this Christmas in Bethlehem will be the “second Christmas during an ongoing Genocide”. Placed in quote marks here because it seems hard to reconcile with reality.

How can this still be continuing?

How is it that the @Statedept even now - 15 months after October 7th and more recently the defeat of both Hezbollah and Assad - is still mostly saying “Israel has a right to defend itself. As massacres of 50-80 Gaza civilians - predominantly women and children - continue to occur on a daily basis.
Could there at least be a Christmas and New Years Truce? A brief silencing of the guns, a break from the endless massacre of innocents via fire-from-the-sky, as if Gaza were now Mordor.

It is certainly already nearly as desolate.

Someone needs to ask Bibi Netanyahu who is unusually and nearly singularly responsibility for all of this. WHEN AND HOW DOES THIS END?
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Dec 16
There is a new chapter on the story of Mosab Hassan Yousef.

This is the original production of this. But he will soon be known far better than he was when Chris Cuomo brought his story to life here back in December 2023 at the outset of the war, in the wake of January 7th.

Hamas Founder's Son Turned Israeli Spy - Mosab Hassan Yousef, "The Green... youtu.be/llJxz1pAlQQ?si… via @YouTube
“Hamas’s Aspiration is global”

“The Muslim Brotherhood is Here in the United States.”

For clarification Mosab Hassan is unquestionably completely genuine and in is views, and like me he is a pacifist when it comes to saving human life from conflict. And this as he articulates very very clearly remains his view.

And for this reason - notwithstanding the fact that this latest broadcast is extremely triggering, and will likely soon become very controversial, is also very important.Image
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The target of this messaging is Americans. Not me.

And probably not you, even though a large portion of my followers are in the U.S.
Read 19 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Dec 11
Correction I meant to say here:

“The Neighbours & friends of Syria, and international solidarity movements, and all people of good consciousness need to develop a counter strategy to the ongoing U.S-Israel War Drumming - that is now clearly moving U.S. towards a 2003 repeat of the 2nd Gulf War.”

I would proscribe peaceful non-violence myself.
scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0304…
“The media's role in a democratic society in general is to provide the public with an informed basis upon which they can exercise their democratic rights to lobby, and express their views on what should happen to their elected representatives. And nothing changes during wartime.
When measured by this standard I would conclude that the media both here in New Zealand and everywhere else in the Western World – with the exception of the Internet – has failed spectacularly to do its job.”

- Tuesday, 29 April 2003, 3:00 pm
Read 10 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Dec 9
The desire of Genocide -Pro clueless highly paid American pundits to misrepresent current historical events as they unfold in real time in the global real-Politik is far from surprising, but this take from Bill Kristol is about as daft as it is possible to be.

Syria’s HTS & Türkiye led coup which has toppled Assad cane out of the blue. It was not an American-Israeli plot but rather a deftly delivered victory for justice that will have the effect of heading off the U.S. clash with Iran that the genocidal maniac who remains in Power in Israel, for now anyway, had planned.

This will not now be the next chapter in the story of Middle Eastern turmoil. Instead we will now see a flourishing of Middle Eastern led political reform that may finally rid the region of the power designs of the Western Powers “Great Game” who will soon become irrelevant in the region.

Thread….Image
I shall not bother to decide Kristol’s incoherent burbling except to remark that he is missing the real story here.

Arab’s just liberated Arabs in Arabia - as ought to be the case. Whether this was the clear intent of the actions and actors whose planning led up to this moment of clarity in geopolitical history is unclear, but the result is clear.

Syrians are now free. And western powers have been rendered irrelevant except to the extent that they are able to render assistance to the new Free Arab State of Syria in coming months and years. /2
The shear speed with which the events unfolded in Syria was and remains breathtaking. As if perhaps divinely directed.

Even Netanyahu’s response - to bomb Damascus- whilst monstrous in both it’s paranoia and execution is positive, in that it has now ruled Israel completely out of the process of rebuilding Syria which will soon commence.

Netanyahu openly proclaimed his messianic ambition in New York to a Nearly empty UNGA assembly meeting hall, his vision of a greater Israel that included Syria. And no doubt he remains enthralled to these ideas. But by bombing Damascus he just ruled himself out as a partner for peace in the region. /3
Read 11 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Dec 4
Excellent edition of @France24_en The debate.

If you listen/watch you will doubtless come to the conclusion that nobody knows for sure:

1. What exactly has happened in Syria, who backed who…

2. nor what the end game in this HTS launched renewed Civil War in Syria will look like.

3. But there are a lot of interesting theories.

Domino effect? Assad's allies stretched thin as Syrian rebels pounce • F... youtu.be/ZZN1nek4aTg?si… via @YouTube
From my perspective a useful rubric to analyse this is who benefits from this.

The penultimate French speaker - before the American who closed (presumably with a conventional foggy bottom perspective - I.E pro Israel when asked by Picard who is responsible gave I think the clearest answer.

“Ask the Americans” then pointed out that this development comes hot on top of the ceasefire in Lebanon which is far from secure.Image
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The debate is exactly that and all speakers are experts in different aspects of the Syrian Question and the players. Which include.

- the rebel group whose lightning speed taking of Aleppo HTS/formerly Al Nusra over the last 4 days initiated this new crisis currently in the north of Syria but which HTS and other anti Assad forces in Syria appear to be intent on heading to Damascus to displace Assad.

Note: As you can see here (map) Damascus is just north of due east of the Israel-Lebanon border south east of Beirut & very close to Israel. (Check out the 1967 war & Angolan Heights to find out why)Image
Read 14 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Dec 3
The war crimes attorney, French, based in Lyon, who lodged the first war crimes complaint against Netanyahu was Giles Devers.

He recently died.

The complaint was based on the #GreatMarchOfReturn IDF operations during which 223 Palestinians were shot
The protests:

30 March 2018 – 27 December 2019
(1 year, 8 months, 3 weeks and 6 days)

…. peaceful. Young people gathered on the border and threw stones at snipers on defensive mounds above the protest area. A varying number of protestors were shot each day. including medics and members of the media.

The protests reached their zenith when Trump was present in Jerusalem for the opening of a U.S. embassy there during his first term as President.

Time magazine coverage time.com/longform/gaza-…Image
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Forensic evidence was collected for the prosecution case by a team from Gaza’s Ministry of Health - and supervised by my colleague, Kiwi Journalist Julie Webb Pullman.

And this evidence and formed the substance of the first complaint laid by Advocat Giles Devers of “War Crimes” against Israel’s Govt and the IDF.
Read 9 tweets

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