Over 24hrs 25-60mms rain has fallen over all three Nile tributaries with the heaviest falling over the #Abbay in Ethiopia's highlands which feeds the #GERD. Here we see an image of storms starting up this morning.
I jumped the gun calling the beginning of #GERD filling on1 July - as the big rainy season began.
Official news of filling came yesterday in the form of an objection to the filling from Egypt after being notified by #Ethiopia that it is underway.
#GERD filling is expected to be less than 13.5 Billion Cubic Meters as time ran out to raise the dam to the height needed to hold this amount of water.
When the filling is completed spilling over the center of the dam will resume as you can see in this image below from 2020.
On Thursday the UN Security Council will meet for the second time in 2 years to discuss the dispute over the #GERD filling between Ethiopia and Egypt+Sudan. This @AJEnglish report from last year is about the first meeting.
Today's big picture shows the region today including a massive storm over West Sudan and today's storms starting up over Ethiopia's highlands.
Today's 10-Day Rainfall forecasts for North Africa from July 6th through July 17th.
All models are now forecasting widespread rainfall over Yemen towards the end of the forecast period.
This image shows rain over the region over the last 48 hours as measured by satellite [Src @Meteoblue]
48-hour rainfall forecasts (today and tomorrow from the same four models: the Euro @ECMWF, U.S. @NOAA's GFS, Canada's CMC and the Korean KMA models.
And finally for #NorthAfrica we have the long-range 16-day (GFS) and 12-day (KMA) forecasts - which are now remarkably well aligned, albeit with the KMA now forecasting rain across Sudan up to the Egyptian border.
Satellite images from this morning.
The first image shows a glimpse of one of the arms of the #GERD dam lake.
The second image shows the entire area of Nile Basin watersheds, including a massive storm front extending from Sudan to Uganda.
Significant rains are now forecast for Somaliland.
48 Hour forecasts (today and tomorrow) from the same three models. Over this period significant rainfall is not yet forecast for #Somaliland, but it does appear to be coming soon. #Tigray however has widespread rain.
10-Day July 7th, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC, KMA & ACG weather models showing even more #DesertRain in #Yemen and #Oman.
Our final rainfall forecasts are long range July 6th rainfall forecasts. The16-day GFS & GEFS models, the 12 day KMA and the 15 day EPS (Euro ensemble) model forecasts for the #MiddleEast.
The final animation's today shows an interesting development which may bring #DesertRain even further north in Chad and Sudan in coming days - and a couple of days later in the Western Sahara.
If @realDonaldTrump chooses to join Netanyahu’s genocidal campaign if he is not obeyed …. he WILL find himself indicted in the international criminal court in The Hague.
And he will then have to make a decision on whether he is willing to remain in the U.S.
@realDonaldTrump Should he proceed as he has intimated that he should now be pursued by protestors everywhere he goes.
There is a lot of concern about evacuations of civilians from Gaza in the flotilla as anyone leaving may not be able to return any time soon. /2
But the moral hazard here is palpable. There are thousands of injured and starving mostly women and children. And we saw the young babies dying in the hospitals in the early stages of this war. /3
More and more naval vessels from Europe and the Middle East are being deployed to protect the Global Samir Flotilla as it moves slowly but surely towards Gaza where it intends to deliver aid and global attention. /1
Attacks from drones on the flotilla have resumed and Israel is presumably responsible for this. It is because of this that naval vessels from Europe are now joining the flotilla to protect their citizens rights of travel in international waters. /2
The escalation appears fairly slow at present and the flotilla is still within Greek waters at present /3
The #Samud #GazaFlotilla is currently sailing across the Ionian Sea towards the island archipelago south east of Athens in the Western Mediterranean. Conditions appear good for this leg that departed from Sicily after leaving Tunisia. The Flotilla set off from Barcelona.
2/ this current leg is 860 kms roughly and lead boats in the 51 vessel flotilla are currently approaching south western Greece. You can follow the flotillas progress here >> flotilla-orpin.vercel.app
3/ After two drone attacks on flotilla boats in Tunisia the flotilla sailed first to Sicily where it was joined by several more boats. And this map shows the path of the flotilla so far. The numbers in the dots indicate more vessels joining #GazaFlotilla