Lockdown lite?

Has Sydney's lockdown been too lax?

We have Mobility Data up to Wed 1 July. It gives a picture of people's movements in the first 5 days of #Sydneylockdown

Heads up, to understand these charts there are a few tweets of pre-reading ...

#nswcovid #covidnsw
1/9
In the middle of the y-axis, you'll see the number 0

This is the baseline of movement in the community

Baseline = the 'normal' amount of movement on a particular day of the week

Movement on Sundays is different from Wednesdays, so each day has its own normalised baseline

2/9
Google has calculated 'normal' for each day of the week, by finding each day's median throughout a 5-week period from *3 January to 6 February 2020*

That means we need to keep in mind the seasonal and local characteristics of each state during that time of year
E.g. Look at mobility in parks in the NT recently

Movement is shown as a % compared with the baseline (thin grey line)

It's much higher - up to 134% higher! That shows ppl enjoying NT's dry season, compared with wet season in Jan

You can also see NT's lockdown start

3/
In contrast, here is TAS

Movement in parks is well below the baseline - down to -54%. Apparently June in Tassie is a bit chillier than January and parks aren't as appealing

(sorry, the dates are displaying as MM/DD/YY :-/)

4/9
Let's look at NSW

Our baseline is summer holidays. That really skews 'normal' movement in workplaces and homes

So let's focus on other areas

Here is movement in retail / recreation

Compare the recent dip (-31%) with April 2020 (-49%), Aug '20 (-20%), Jan '21 (-20%)

5/9
Here is movement in grocery and pharmacy

We were just about on baseline (-1%), so overall statewide movement in these areas was about the same as a normal summer's day

But remember, only ~65% of the state in lockdown, so likely below baseline in these areas, but not by much

6/
It's also helpful to compare NSW v VIC's recent lockdown

VIC was more strict and state-wide. So keep that in mind when comparing

NSW might have dropped significantly in retail / recreation, but VIC says 'That's not a lockdown. This is a lockdown' (-51%)

#COVID19Vic
7/
There was a similar difference in grocery and pharmacy.

NSW dropped to -1%; VIC dropped to -10%

The state-wide metric gives us an idea, but is probably too crude. The next step is obviously to look at these data in LGAs. This is coming ...

8/9
In the meantime, I encourage you to draw your own conclusions from these charts and use the interactive version that's at the bottom of the homepage here -
covid19data.com.au

9/9

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More from @juliette_io

6 Jul
NSW cases under investigation:

🔎20 (-3 since morning)

LGAs-

Canterbury-Bankstown: 5
Cumberland: 4
Waverley: 4 (-1)
Fairfield: 3 (+1)
Strathfield: 1
Woollahra: 1
Liverpool: 1 (+1)
Sydney: 1
Georges River: 0 (-1)
Randwick: 0 (-1)

#covidnsw #covid19nsw #covidsydney #COVID19Aus
View of cases under investigation based on true notification dates -
Canterbury-Bankstown: 5
Read 7 tweets
6 Jul
Outbreaks compared
🗓️Day 20

For log-scale super fans (and the rest of us) - charts comparing biggest #covid19aus outbreaks

1/6 ... 7 biggest outbreaks in NSW / VIC
👙Bondi - blue (330 cases)

covid19data.com.au/compare-outbre…

#covidsydney #COVID19 #covidnsw #COVID19nsw #COVID19Vic
2/6 ... What does it look like on a log scale?

Useful bc it doesn't only show us whether cases are growing, but how quickly they're growing

#FlattenTheCurve
3/6 ... 'Hold the line': 3 biggest outbreaks

Shows daily cases and 7-day averages on log scale

Useful because it shows whether we are 'holding the line' against daily growth in cases

👙Bondi - blue
🌊VIC 2nd wave - light grey (took off around now)
🍺Crossroads - dark grey
Read 8 tweets
8 Feb
We've collected a wealth of data re NSW clusters, showing the effective whack-a-mole / suppression since mid 2020.

But the most interesting bits are the 'cluster trees'.

A few things they show... 1/6

*Thanks to super thorough work by @DanDbab, Daniel Klein
#COVID19nsw #COVID19 Covid-19 clusters in NSW, Australia.
'Cluster trees' are the way we refer to the meta-clusters, if you like, made up of sub-clusters and outbreaks across primary, secondary and tertiary locations, as well as household and social contacts linked to these.

Here is part of the Crossroads cluster tree.

2/6 Breakdown of Crossroads Hotel cluster. Total 57 cases.
And here is part of the Thai Rock (Wetherill Park) cluster tree.

In both, we can see the spike of transmissions from the primary location and their immediate households / social contacts, then the trickling outwards.

3/6 NSW clusters. Thai Rock, Wetherill Park, cluster tree. Total
Read 8 tweets
12 Sep 20
We finally have the history of the 14-day avg for metro and regional #CovidVic .

Now we can see the curve. Think it rose quickly? It appears to have fallen even faster. Really started to fall away three weeks ago. Frustrating shallowing now. Keep going Vic!

#COVID19Vic
Here it is for regional. The 14-day avg peaked at 31.3 cases / day one month ago.

(Data note - we had to wait for @VicGovDHHS to provide all this b/c the raw data aren't published. Big thanks to @migga @covidliveau for passing it onto me! <3 )
3/5. Here is the other key roadmap trigger - total number of cases with an unknown source in the last two weeks. (Note these figures are delayed by a few days). Metro goal = 5. Regional goal = 0.
Read 7 tweets
6 Sep 20
Charts tracking trigger points in Victoria's roadmap to recovery: (thread, 1/5).

1. Avg daily cases in metro Melbourne. Goal: blue line to reach gold band (30-50 / day, 14-day trailing avg).

#COVID19Victoria #COVID19Vic #COVID19Aus #COVID19
2. Avg. daily cases in regional Victoria. Goal: green line going for gold. (<5 / day, 14-day trailing avg).
3. Community spread (orange) + still under investigation (pink line).

*Metro Step 2 contingent on these*. Metro Step 3 may start with <5 unknowns in last 2 weeks. Regional Step 3 may start with 0 unknowns in regional VIC (tho geo data re community spread not provided).
Read 10 tweets
19 Apr 20
Here's a wrap of some of the key charts on covid19data.com.au right now.

1/8 - Reported recoveries (yellow) and deaths (blue) as a proportion of confirmed cases to give a timeline view of 'open' cases (black) | covid19data.com.au
#covid19australia #Covid_19australia
2/8 - The site now has charts for tests / day (national and state / territories ) but this analysis compares 5-day average of tests (pink bars) with new confirmed cases (black line) |
covid19data.com.au/testing
3/8 - The daily confirmed cases each day is the key graph atm.
Read 9 tweets

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