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Alastair Thompson

Jul 8, 2021 • 20 tweets • 25 min read • Read on X

As the UNSC met tonight to discuss the #GERD storms continued to form over Ethiopia's highlands the source of the water which is currently filling the dam.

Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.

During the UNSC meeting. Ethiopia's water minister explained how this works. "The filling of the dam is part of the construction process.... When the dam is filled the water either flows over the dam or through the bottom outlets."

@AJEnglish

The Minister later spoke to media :

Q: (@AJEnglish): Why don't you stop filling the dam?

A: All dams are filling. Why? Because it is the rainy season. In fact it is good to protect from floods. We have bountiful water. It doesn't hurt anyone.

These two satellite images show the extent of the storms over Sudan, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and Yemen as night fell this evening.

Today's big picture shows the broader region, night falling over the #ArabianStorms and some very large #DesertRain storms in Chad and Niger. Forecasts shows significant rainfall deep into the arid desert parts of the Sahel over the next few days.

Today's 10-Day Rainfall forecasts for North Africa from July 8th through July 19th.

Most models are now forecasting widespread rainfall over #Yemen #Oman #UAE and #KSA Note also the rainfall in the Sahel. The CMC model may be a over playing this a bit though. We shall soon see.

@ECMWF

48-hour rainfall forecasts (today and tomorrow from the same four models: the Euro @ECMWF, U.S. @NOAA's GFS, Canada's CMC and the Korean KMA models.

And finally for #NorthAfrica we have the long-range 16-day (GFS) and 12-day (KMA) forecasts - which remain remarkably well aligned.

You will get a better view of the forecast rain over the southern Arabian Peninsula later in the bulletin.

This satellite closeup shows deep convective bursts this afternoon over Eastern Tigray and Yemen.

And here in a wider angle view we can also see the large storms over the White Nile and Baro Akobbo catchment areas.

Today's July 8th 10-day rainfall forecasts for #Ethiopia (+1 12-day from KMA) and the #HornOfAfrica including #Somalia, #Somaliland, eastern parts of #SouthSudan, south eastern parts of Sudan, #Djbouti and #Eritrea.

The purple areas cover the #Abbay and #TekezeAtbara basins.

48 Hour forecasts (today and tomorrow) from the same three models. Over this period significant rainfall is not yet forecast for #Somaliland, but it does appear to be coming soon.

Today's #ArabianStorms coming to life and delivering #DesertRain, mostly fairly light, but over a very large area.

The 10-Day accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC, KMA & ACG weather models are showing increasingly more #DesertRain in #Yemen and #Oman.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم

The forecast rain we see in ^^ these forecasts deserves an explanation. The cause appears to be monsoon level atmospheric moisture making it all the way across the Arabian Sea.

These PWAT forecasts are for Saturday, then next Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

48 Hour July 8th (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC, KMA and ACG weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم

The rainfall forecasts are long-range July 7th rainfall forecasts. The16-day GFS & GEFS models, the 12 day KMA and the 15 day EPS (Euro ensemble) model forecasts for the #MiddleEast.

KMA & EPS models now show #DesertRain in #UAE as well as #Yemen #Oman #SaudiArabia.

الله أعلم

Our daily rounded picture of the full North Western Hemisphere. Zero hour simulation data (i.e. now) from the GFS.

1. Precipitable water PWAT anomaly
2. PWAT (potential rain + energy)
3. MLSP (Mean Sea Level Pressure)
4. 250Hpa (jet stream winds approx 11kms high)

@Threadreaderapp

/ENDS

@Threadreaderapp unroll

https://twitter.com/Ethiopia_UN/status/1413251090296999950?s=20

Here is the full, precise quote of the Ethiopia Water Minister.

https://twitter.com/Ethiopia_UN/status/1413251090296999950?s=20

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson

@althecat

Jul 21

THREAD: Some thoughts on October 7th and the importance of their being global transparency over what we know about what really happened on that terrible day.

1/ This (see screenshots in the first few posts in this thread) is one of the most important pieces of conflict related journalism published in recent years.

It relates to the orders given to soldiers on October 7th to fire on any vehicle seeking to return to the Gaza Strip to prevent the taking of hostages and was published on July 7th, 10 months later in Haaretz.

2/ As @IsraeliPM Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to address congress it is vital that the public in the US, Israel and globally is fully aware of what exactly happened on October 7th in Gaza.

3/ The account in this story published by Haaretz is at this time still behind a paywall and it has therefore not been read by the very large number of people who ought to have done so. I have not seen very many reports containing the detail of this report elsewhere though I presume there are many.

A copy of the report can be found however on here >> Archive.is
archive.md/zqUnt

Read 16 tweets

Alastair Thompson

@althecat

Jul 8

OK so clearly #HurricaneBeryl is not the same as #HurricaneHarvey. But there are some striking similarities in terms of what has made it so much more persistent than either forecast or as modeled.

This thread is going to look at this issue a bit more deeply.
- The overall cloud mass of the #HurricaneBeryl thunderstorm complex proved much more resilient than expected once it came over land. Why?
- Also Like #Harvey Beryl did slow down after making landfall and continued to spin over land. Why?
- I think the answer to both questions relates to the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Like Harvey back in 2017, Beryl has been fueled by a constant stream of warm wet atmospheric flows of energy off of the Gulf of Mexico.
- This is obvious in part simply from observing the astonishing expansion of the cloud field after #Beryl made landfall early this morning.

A clue to understanding this can be found in looking at the the astonishing growth progression of #HurricaneBeryl's cloud field over landafter Beryl strengthened and formed itself into a Hurricane in the period after making landfall south of Houston.

Over the course of the rest of the morning you can see in these images how much the wind field expanded.

Like Harvey #Beryl also grew and strengthened itself by feeding off of the gulf of mexico, specifically the area between the Texas coastline and what looks like the outer boundary of the convection field which expanded extremely strongly to the north.

The only source for all this additional atmospheric moisture can be the oceanic convection which took place in what is a fairly clearly bounded 136,000 km2 area of ocean which as you can see in this animation is very closely bound to the rest of the circulation.

This is a much much larger area than the area of active rainfall which settled over the city and metropolis of Houston for the morning and which is finally starting to move off to the north now.

This version of the graphic shows the comparative sizes of the area of water which is responsible for the astonitising growth of post landfall #HurricaneBeryl - and the area of the storm that remained over the ocean and which is almost certainly responsible for both why this storm was so persistent and why it (like Harvey) slowed down after coming ashore.

Read 4 tweets

Alastair Thompson

@althecat

Jul 8

#HurricaneBerylis not expected to give up lightly as it moves onshore and turns north eastward over Texas and then heads north east across the great planes towards the great lakes.

Typically we expect hurricanes to weaken rapidly over land - especially wind wise. But #Berylis not forecast to behave as normal - probably because like Harvey, its tail over the Gulf is keeping it fueled. - the currently forecast pattern from Fox News's exclusive model shown in these images was present in some of the simulations of Beryl after it crossed the Yucutan a couple of days ago.

To my mind questions ought to be asked about the accuracy of the forecasting for this storm, as - like the last super destructive Texas Hurricane, Harvey in 2017 [] Beryl is proving to be a LOT more destructive in its impacts than initially forecast.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane…

The final image in this sequence of screenshots of Fox Weather Graphics is worth drawing attention to as it shows how much broader the impacts of this hurricane are expected to be as it moves across the great planes roughly speaking heading up the Mississippi river, and continuing to dump potential flooding rain as it goes.

This image shows the forecast expected severe weather threat from the remnants of #HurricaneBeryl in Arkansas and Missouri up as far as Saint Louis.

Read 6 tweets

Alastair Thompson

@althecat

Jul 8

ALERT: High Target News Environment in play - numerous consequential news events with global implications.

1. British elections - (Thursday July 4th-Friday July 5th): Delivering an unprecedented landslide win to the left's @UKLabour Party + strong showings for the Liberals and Greens . The UK Chancellor @RachelReevesMP will shortly set out her economic policy in a speech.

2. French elections (Sunday July 7th) deliver a remarkable 2nd big win for the left in politics in France - dashing the hopes of Marine le Pen's hard right wing "Rassemblement National" of first parliamentary victory

3. Overnight (7th-8th July): an unprecedented huge Hurricane , #Hurricane Beryl - makes landfall in Houston as a Category 1 Hurricane, its main threat to the epicenter of the global fossil fuel industry will be flooding. It is still night in Houston at present.

You can watch the new UK Chancellor's speech live here now >> youtube.com/live/oJUvTVdTM…

English language coverage of the French Election from @France24_en can be watched here >>

Read 5 tweets

Alastair Thompson

@althecat

Jul 1

Hmmmmmm…. Why is the audio of the @youtube version of the UNSG office daily briefing for 1st July missing sound from 5:24 to 6:07?

Afghanistan, Lebanon, Myanmar & other topics - Daily Press Briefing (1 J... via @YouTube

The content of this portion is available as it is simply a quote from written remarks of UNSG @antonioguterres made to a meeting in Austria. But the missing YouTube audio is unprecedented in my experience and hard to explain.

Video from the un platform is here. webtv.un.org/en/asset/k12/k…

Read 10 tweets

Alastair Thompson

@althecat

Jun 23

Another day. Another Israeli
war crime.

Intense bombing by Israeli forces on Gaza continues and kills at least 3... via @YouTube

This report also addresses the widening rift between Israeli PM Netanyahu and the U.S. Government. True to form Netanyahu is showing no sign of backing down. But this tweet showing former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant leaving on a U.S. flight for the U.S. speaks volumes in this very intense moment.

Amidst continued bombing of Rafah, Israeli forces are resuming strikes i... via @YouTube

And here from two days ago more Margaret Brennan context on the rupture in relations between the @WhiteHouse and @IsraeliPM

Israel has not come close to destroying Hamas, U.S. official says via @YouTube

Read 7 tweets

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