1. The logic behind the #Kabul attacks is clear:
i) demonstrating that the #Taliban cannot provide the security it has been promising;
ii) framing #ISKP as a key power-broker in #Afghanistan; and
iii) goading the #US into extending, in some shape or form, its CT presence there.
i) demonstrating that the #Taliban cannot provide the security it has been promising;
ii) framing #ISKP as a key power-broker in #Afghanistan; and
iii) goading the #US into extending, in some shape or form, its CT presence there.
2. From a strategic perspective, the attacks were as much aimed at the #Taliban as they were the #Afghan citizens and #US soldiers that were killed.
As the #Taliban tries to consolidate its position in #Afghanistan, #IS will do all it can to undermine it.
As the #Taliban tries to consolidate its position in #Afghanistan, #IS will do all it can to undermine it.
3. The more pressure #ISKP puts on the #Taliban, the harder it will be for its nascent government to maintain centrifugal force.
If the #Taliban's fringes rebel and the movement fragments, so too will #Afghanistan—and if that happens, #ISKP will have much more room to breathe.
If the #Taliban's fringes rebel and the movement fragments, so too will #Afghanistan—and if that happens, #ISKP will have much more room to breathe.
4. On that basis, these attacks play into the hands of #ISKP locally and #IS globally.
They are not about establishing #Afghanistan as a new core of the caliphate—at least, not yet. They are about demonstrating presence and intent, and shaping the terrain for future insurgency.
They are not about establishing #Afghanistan as a new core of the caliphate—at least, not yet. They are about demonstrating presence and intent, and shaping the terrain for future insurgency.
5. #US President #Biden has already vowed retaliation against #ISKP.
#ISKP locally and #IS globally will use this to bolster its overarching narrative, framing itself as the sole ‘pure' Islamic force fighting against American ‘Crusaders' and Taliban ‘apostates.'
#ISKP locally and #IS globally will use this to bolster its overarching narrative, framing itself as the sole ‘pure' Islamic force fighting against American ‘Crusaders' and Taliban ‘apostates.'
6. For more context on this, see our report on how VEOs in #Afghanistan—both #Taliban and #ISKP—influence and shape Afghan politics. It can be accessed here: public-assets.extrac.io/reports/ExTrac…
See also our analysis on #ISKP's operational dynamics:
See also our analysis on #ISKP's operational dynamics:
https://twitter.com/Ex_Trac/status/1430526914482032649
7. ExTrac is monitoring the situation in #Afghanistan closely and, next week, we will be publishing an extended briefing note on #ISKP.
If you’d like to know more about our reporting, visit extrac.io or email info@extrac.io.
If you’d like to know more about our reporting, visit extrac.io or email info@extrac.io.
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