GDP Data: Looking back to see where we are!
Lot of ground to cover?

1. GDP is less than 2018-19. Higher by 2.39% from 2017-18. Nearly Static over 4 years.
2. PFCE is less than 2017-18. Consumers, the biggest contributors are struggling.

@SahilKapoor @dugalira @CafeEconomics
3. Govt. Final Cons Exp up by a CAGR of 3.75% over 4 years. Less than last year.

4. GFCF is less than 2018-19. CAGR of 0.82% over 4 years.
5. Inventory significantly less than 2018-19. Does it say something about business confidence?

6. Always lumpy. But not a great picture. Last quarter was one of the best. This is one of the two worst quarters in 4 years.
My biggest worry is: Are we in structurally slow state?

#India #GDP #GDPgrowth
Exports are doing well. CAGR is 4.95% - Not bad at all as the global economy is is going through a tough phase.
Imports are growing too. CAGR of 1.67%. Net Exports bring about a +ve impact on GDP.

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More from @AnilKSood5

26 Aug
#NMP #Financing #infrastructure
In current situation, we run the 'risk of mispricing risk, even for de-risked assets'.
Why: It is not easy to estimate cash flows from infrastructure assets in an uncertain environment with limited clarity about eco policy and potential growth?
I would host these assets in NIIF & do a Public issue for raising finance, so that the Indian public shares the upside, as they are ones who have been bearing the risk all these years. We need Indian HHs to start providing risk cap, if India has to grow.
We can use banking system or the shadow banking systems where we have debt bearing the cost of risk and uncertainty, arising our poor policy choices and business decision.
Read 7 tweets
12 Aug
#Leadership in a Growth-constrained, Information-Age #Economy
Reflecting on conversations 2018 Conclave where business & academic leaders had shared their insights on the constraints that global & the #Indian economy faces & possible solutions.
ideassansideology.org/engagements/le…
2. Demand was identified as the constraint on growth and wage/earnings growth was considered to be the solution. Pandemic has made it worse. But solution is still in growth in earnings - now more than ever.
3. At the end of the day, government is not spending, industry is not spending, and the individuals are not able to spend, and therefore growth is constrained.
Read 11 tweets
29 Jun
#Agriculture #Earnings in #India
Thread
1. Farming is a fixed cost activity, with uncertainty of output. Cost of living is largely fixed for all of us.

@andymukherjee70 @kikumbhar @sritara @Sabya_K @srinivasanravi @srirags @ieuditmisra @Roshanjnu @HarishRDave Maximum & Minimum Family Earnings by Crop: India, Data from
2. Cost of living experiences structural shift as the economy grows.

3. Earnings benchmarked to rural cost of living do not allow us to make investment for building capability to take advantage of urban opportunities. Explained later while building a case for public spend.
4. India has constrained its ability to grow by not pricing agri products to help farmers earn sufficient income that give them a chance to invest in themselves & their family and make a transition to urban jobs or becoming entrepreneur.
Read 16 tweets
24 Jun
Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World

One of my go to report for big picture understanding. It is worth reading, if not already read.

dni.gov/index.php/gt20…
1. "Human development, including health, education, and household prosperity, has made historic improvements in every region during the past few decades..
2. Many countries will struggle to build on and even sustain these successes.

3. More extreme storms, droughts, and floods; melting glaciers and ice caps; and rising sea levels will accompany rising temperatures.
Read 9 tweets
23 Jun
Preparing for the #Pandemic and accelerating #Growth by creating naturally high value-adding, low capital-intensity jobs in the healthcare sector: My perspective

financialexpress.com/opinion/how-to…

@EKumarSharma @FinancialXpress
A healthcare job creates a nominal value-added of ~Rs. 5.8 lakhs 1 per year, compared with ~4.40 lakhs for an average job in the Indian economy. In addition, it has backward linkages with much higher value-adding jobs in the pharmaceutical & medical equipment mfg. businesses.
A healthcare job requires an investment of ~ Rs. 9.1 lakh, compared to Rs. 10.1 lakh for an average Indian job. In other words, a healthcare job is a low capital intensity and high value-adding job.
Read 5 tweets
11 Jun
#Inflation & #Commodity #Prices

2 articles '09 & '21.
4 Charts US CPI, PPI

1. financialexpress.com/archive/FE-Edi…
2. reuters.com/article/us-met…

Why did '09 not sustain? Why do we think that 2020/21 will sustain?

@SahilKapoor @vijaybhambwani @Macro_Maniac_ @GoodGiffen @Determinedinvst ImageImageImageImage
Data Source: Bureau of Labour Statistics, USA and IMF's Commodity Price Portal
An interesting side story

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 7 tweets

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