In the coming week, I will release a song called: "The #Rohingya", I produced for SOULOGIK 🇺🇸, DAMOLA 🇳🇬 & CIRCUS RECIPE 🇱🇸. Mixed and mastered by LTIP 🇿🇦
#PEACE & #RESPECT to ABUL KALAM @kalamabul408 in Bangladesh for the amazing work he's doing on the ground to shine light on the desperate & heart wrenching plight of The #Rohingya.
So far this year, I have successfully published three #Research articles in #Macroeconomics & #Finance, with another two in press. I am currently hammering away at a handful of working papers which will most certainly find a home in reputable #Journals, come 2021 🙏🏽🙂
Im currently internalising the very insightful reviewer comments on my latest #Research paper titled; "Investigating Determinants of Commercial Bank Spreads in #Lesotho", from the good folks over at the globally reputable #International#Journal of #Finance & #Economics#IJFE 😊
Lets talk about the macroeconomic impact of #COVID19 in the short-medium term. The pandemic continues to have broad based devastating effects, crippling global economic activity. Fiscal & monetary policy is loose, to "ease" the virus' blow. What of a #Vaccine? Will you take It?
The global economic recovery hinges on the flattening both the #COVID19 infection curve and the economic recession curve. Negative output gaps imply activity below potential. The expectation, is for a vaccine to help towards herd immunity, thus flattening the infection curve...
It is expected that if a #Vaccine is made widely available & the uptake significant, economic activity will pick up & supply chains resuscitated. This will help flatten the recession curve. Ergo, all appears to rest on the production of a vaccine. But again, will you take it?
The 1st thing would be for one to familiarise themselves with the #IMF's #RFI & #RCF facilities to understabd their modalities.The 2nd, would be to appreciate how external shocks (low exports, high capital outflows) dovetail with internal (domestic) shocks e.g. fiscal deficits.
@BraSmoove If facility modalities (qualification requirements etc.) are understood, it becomes apparent the loans are concessional. If overlaps between external & internal shocks are appreciated & public gross financing needs articulated, BoP support from IMF best option.
@BraSmoove another important thing to note, as far as IMF BoP support, it necessitates governments develop a clear plan of how funds will be used & how consolidation will be done post the necessary stimulus in a letter or imtent. Investors see that & are bullish about the country
Think of #Government this way: it exists to smooth economic activity over the cycle (ups & downs). Ergo, it exists for no other reason but to ensure output is close to or at full potential. Efficient resource allocation & redistribution are neccesary but insufficient condition.
Government has two levers it can pull on to honour this so called "social contract". These are Revenue (taxes) & Primary Spending (consumption & investment). In a downturn, as in an upturn, #FiscalPolicy is an automatic and/or deliberate toggle of those two levers...
Ideally, government is expected to always note where the economy is on the cycle (early, mid, late cycle etc) to execute efficient #FiscalPolicy. Should government miscalculate the position, fiscal policy could be misguided (e.g. loose when should be tight)...