moeti damane Profile picture
senior partner, AUDIBLEBRAILE Entertainment, Producer, Emcee & all round Scholar of this HIPHOP culture
7 Sep
Lets talk about the macroeconomic impact of #COVID19 in the short-medium term. The pandemic continues to have broad based devastating effects, crippling global economic activity. Fiscal & monetary policy is loose, to "ease" the virus' blow. What of a #Vaccine? Will you take It?
The global economic recovery hinges on the flattening both the #COVID19 infection curve and the economic recession curve. Negative output gaps imply activity below potential. The expectation, is for a vaccine to help towards herd immunity, thus flattening the infection curve...
It is expected that if a #Vaccine is made widely available & the uptake significant, economic activity will pick up & supply chains resuscitated. This will help flatten the recession curve. Ergo, all appears to rest on the production of a vaccine. But again, will you take it?
Read 7 tweets
28 Jul
The 1st thing would be for one to familiarise themselves with the #IMF's #RFI & #RCF facilities to understabd their modalities.The 2nd, would be to appreciate how external shocks (low exports, high capital outflows) dovetail with internal (domestic) shocks e.g. fiscal deficits.
@BraSmoove If facility modalities (qualification requirements etc.) are understood, it becomes apparent the loans are concessional. If overlaps between external & internal shocks are appreciated & public gross financing needs articulated, BoP support from IMF best option.
@BraSmoove another important thing to note, as far as IMF BoP support, it necessitates governments develop a clear plan of how funds will be used & how consolidation will be done post the necessary stimulus in a letter or imtent. Investors see that & are bullish about the country
Read 5 tweets
20 Jul
Think of #Government this way: it exists to smooth economic activity over the cycle (ups & downs). Ergo, it exists for no other reason but to ensure output is close to or at full potential. Efficient resource allocation & redistribution are neccesary but insufficient condition.
Government has two levers it can pull on to honour this so called "social contract". These are Revenue (taxes) & Primary Spending (consumption & investment). In a downturn, as in an upturn, #FiscalPolicy is an automatic and/or deliberate toggle of those two levers...
Ideally, government is expected to always note where the economy is on the cycle (early, mid, late cycle etc) to execute efficient #FiscalPolicy. Should government miscalculate the position, fiscal policy could be misguided (e.g. loose when should be tight)...
Read 7 tweets
5 May
#Note, before you get yourself killed rocking your #Mask the wrong way...
#Dont...
#Dont...
Read 7 tweets
20 Apr
Lets talk about #Oil and why the price of the #US benchmark #WTI West Texas Intermediate has turned negative FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER...
Some of you are waking up to what might read or sound like another disaster. Just when you were learning how to deal with #COVID19, you hear about a so called plunge in the #Price of #Oil. But what does it mean to have oil in negative territory & why is that the case? Lets see...
In the main we will talk a bit about simple matters of #supply & #demand while touching on the #future as far as #consumer outlooks & #perception / #confidence are concerned. I would like us to start in 2016, a quick recap...what happened to #Oil?
Read 20 tweets
24 Mar
Lets talk about the initiatives by the #WorldBank - WB, #InternationalFinanceCorporation - IFC and #InternationalMonetaryFund - IMF in the fight against the spread of #COVID19...
The #WorldBank / #IFC US$14 billion package intended to #FastTrack financing to assist companies and countries in their efforts to prevent, detect and respond to the rapid spread of COVID-19. package aims to bolster national systems for public health preparedness...
The #IFC’s share of the US$14 billion-dollar package is US$8 billion. It will be used to support private companies and their employees adversely affected by the economic downturn caused by the #COVID19 outbreak...
Read 10 tweets
17 Mar
Lets talk about #Global #CentralBanks and their #MonetaryPolicy stances given #COVID19. Specifically, lets ask ourselves: "Can Central Banks Help Fight COVID-19?"
The best place to start is to note that #Global #Growth was already facing considerable downside risks before the #COVID19 outbreak December 2019. The slow down in global growth came on the back of trade (china vs. us) and geopolitical (Brexit etc.) tensions...
To this end, institutions such as the #IMF & #WorldBank revised down their 2020 #Economic #Growth outlook & emphasised the need for a more coordinated #policy approach between #monetary & #fiscal policy around the globe to "rescue" growth from the doldrums...
Read 14 tweets
9 Mar
Lets talk about #Oil and the #Corona / #COVID19 #Virus. What is it doing to #Global #Energy #Demand & what does it mean for #OPEC?
On March 5th 2020, the Organisation of #Petroleum Exporting Countries #OPEC concluded its 178th Extraordinary meeting. Aside from Ecuador's withdrawal from OPEC, the #Oil #Cartel was hard pressed to fashion a response to the impact of #COVID19 on #Global oil #Demand...
It is no secret that the #global #oil #market is awash in oil. The glut in supply has seen, in the past, a collaboration of sorts between #OPEC & Non-OPEC (mainly #Russia) oil exporters to monitor supply & maintain output at "mutually profitable" levels...
Read 9 tweets
3 Mar
If you've been following #Global #Capital #Markets, you'll have noted a significant rebound in some of the world's key stock market indices. This follows a "correction" in the wake of #COVID19. The rebound largely comes on the back of #CentralBank commitment to "lower for longer"
While #CentralBank commitment to "lower for longer" might help rally markets today, it is still imperative for us to consider the #Global #MonetaryPolicy #Toolbox and if policy makers will have enough space to "keep cutting" or providing "stimulus" moving forward.
Below are #CentralBank meeting dates for March 1st to 7th 2020. From this list, Banks that usually "move the needle" as it where, are Bank of #Australia & the Bank of #Canada. As it so happens, Bank of Australia cut policy rate by 25bps to 0.5% citing #COVID19 as downside risk.
Read 7 tweets
24 Feb
Lets talk about the 1st meeting of #G20 #Finance Ministers and #CentralBank Governors. Specifically, lets talk about the short to medium term headwinds for global #Economic #Growth...
If you haven't been living under a rock, and you happen to be an avid scholar / practitioner in the world of #Global #Finance / #CentralBanking, then you know that the Group of 20 Finance Ministers & Central Bank Governors met on the 22-23 Feb 2020 in #Riyadh, #SaudiArabia...
The 2020 #g20 meeting of finance ministers & central bank governors in #Riyadh brought together key #Fiscal and #Monetary #Policy makers to discuss, inter alia, what #Global #Economic #Growth prospects look like in the short to medium term...
Read 12 tweets
23 Feb
SAN presents #PeoplePOWER dropping 2020..!
The #PeoplePOWER project has 10 songs...
10. Strive (Black Girl) ft. DAMOLA
Read 15 tweets
13 Feb
Lets talk about #Gold #Mining in #SouthAfrica. Specifically, lets talk about #AngloGold's exit from South Africa & its impact on say, #Lesotho #Migrant #Mine workers...
The latest #news in the #SouthAfrican #Mining #Industry is that #AngloGold Ashanti, the world’s third-largest gold miner, has sealed a deal to sell its last remaining SA asset as it exits the country after 22 years on the #JSE...
I will not be talking about the "WHY" aspect of #AngloGold's exit from the #SouthAfrican #Mining #Industry. Rather, my focus will be on the consequences of such a move for #Labour, #Migrant labour to be precise. Labour from #Lesotho, specifically...
Read 12 tweets
10 Feb
Lets talk about #Argentina and the #IMF. Specifically, lets talk about the biggest IMF #Bailout in #History...
Before we start talking about #Argentina & how the #IMF has extended to them a #Bailout that is by far the biggest in the organisation's history, let us first appreciate what the functions of the IMF are...
The #IMF’s main goal is to ensure #stability of the #international #monetary & #financial #system. It helps resolve crises, and works with its 189 member countries to promote #growth & alleviate #poverty...
Read 12 tweets
7 Feb
Lets talk about the #FED's #Outlook on #US & #Global #Growth & where it sees #MonetaryPolicy #Regulation & #Supervision going given the #Zero / #EffectiveLowerBound...
Yesterday, 6th February 2020, the #FederalReserve (FED) Vice Chair for #Supervision addressed the #Money Marketeers of #NewYorkUniversity in #NewYork. His address, in the form of a speech, was coined "The #Economic Outlook, #MonetaryPolicy, and the Demand for #Reserves"...
Considering that the #FED is one of the most influential #CentralBanks in the world, it pays to get as much information from them as possible, especially when it comes to #monetarypolicy conduct and the #Global impacts thereof...
Read 11 tweets
3 Feb
Lets talk about #StockMarket participation & #SocialInteraction...
Here is a question: If you go to church with, or you are a neighbour to someone that participates in the #StockMarket, do you think being in their company can lead to you (given you aren't a retail investor) participating in the stock market?
I am currently engaged in a #Research wherein I explore the reasons why and the reasons why not retail investors participate in the #StockMarket. I am also looking at the reasons why a private company would choose to go public & list its shares on a stock exchange...
Read 11 tweets
31 Jan
Lets talk about John Maynard #Keynes and his #Passion for #Art...
John Maynard #Keynes is perhaps most famous for his 1936 Magnum Opus, The General #Theory of #Employment, #Interest, and #Money in which he argued for a more active role of #FiscalPolicy in #Macroeconomic management...
It is hardly disputable that #Keynes' work, and his subsequent roles during the #BrettonWoods era marked a significant intellectual shift in the way we have come to understand #Economics as a discipline...
Read 11 tweets
30 Jan
Let us talk about the #FED #FOMC's 1st #MonetaryPolicy meeting of 2020. Specifically, let us talk about the puzzle that is a flatter #PhillipsCurve...
The #FederalOpenMarketCommittee (#FOMC) of the #FederalReserveBank (#FED) of the #US concluded its 1st meeting of 2020 on the 29th January 2020. As expected, the FED did not change rates but left the #KeyPolicyRate, the #FederalFundsRate (#FFR) in the 1.5%-1.75% range...
Indeed, if one considers the #FED #Dotplot of December 2019, the decision to keep rates unchanged would not come as a surprise. What I wanted to focus on today is some key passages in the statement, highlighted in yellow in the screenshot below...its all #PhillipsCurve...
Read 17 tweets
27 Jan
Lets talk about the upcoming 1st meeting of the #FED #FOMC (28-29 January 2020). Specifically, lets talk about the #DOTS...
The #FED #FOMC developed the so called #DotPlot in 2011 as a chart to record each FED's official forecast for the FED's key short-term interest rate (federal funds rate - #FFR). Currently, the FFR, following the December 2019 meeting is in the target range between 1.5% and 1.75%
The most recent #DotPlot is attached below. Each dot represents one #FED official, from the Chairman to fellow Governors. It is anonymous & as such, no one knows which official is responsible for what dot...
Read 10 tweets
24 Jan
Lets talk about how important it is to frequently #Review #CentralBank #MonetaryPolicy #Frameworks...
I will set things off by pointing out that the various facets of #BusinessCycles (early, mid, late / boom & busts) consistently keep reminding us that what goes up, must come down. We might find ourselves in a prolonged #expansion, but eventually it decelerates into a #recession
As part of #Macroeconomic management (counter cyclical), a #CentralBank's objective (through its #MonetaryPolicy) is to maintain #PriceStability & #FinancialStability & in other cases, to promote #FullEmployment. It does this hand in hand with #FiscalPolicy...
Read 15 tweets
22 Jan
Let us talk about recent #Trends in #Global #Monetary #Policy, say, from 2015 to 2019...
Before I do that, let me give you an updated list of #CentralBank #MonetaryPolicyCommittee meetings for 2020...The matrix attached shows MPC dates for #CBL #SARB #FED and #ECB...
Surely we are conversant with the terms #dovish #hawkish #loose #tight #expansionary & #contractionary when it comes to #monetarypolicy jargon. What did the #global monetary policy landscape look like from 2015 to 2019? Was it loose or tight, expansionary or contractionary?
Read 12 tweets
21 Jan
Lets talk about #Oil and #Inflation and whether the relationship is #Linear or #NonLinear...
We have all been witness to the recent volatility in the #Global #Oil markets. We have seen how disruptions in oil #Supply, be it from #SaudiArabia, #Nigeria, #Venezuela, #Iran or #Libya can cause upticks in the global #Price of oil...
On the same token, we are aware how muted #oil #demand can arise from a slow down in #global #growth. For e.g. a persistent slowdown in #China often translates into a softening of global oil prices. Similarly, high #inventories & the impact of #US #shale drives down prices...
Read 9 tweets