Thread by @IndoPac_Info

Assuring Assured Retaliation: Why #China is Growing its Nuclear Arsenal - An Analysis

Prof. @fravel & Prof. @Fiona_Cunning analyze the latest revelations about PRC’s nuclear modernization.

It's unclear if the goals of PRC's nuke strategy are changing..

washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/…

@fravel @Fiona_Cunning 2/ The #US DoD's report assessed China's nuclear arsenal could quadruple by 2030.

PRC is building 3 missile-silo fields, which analysts expect to account for a significant increase in projected warhead stockpile.

PRC is modernizing, diversifying & expanding its nuke forces.

@fravel @Fiona_Cunning 3/ China also tested an orbital bombardment system with a hypersonic glider vehicle.

Why are these developments happening now?

*China may be expanding its options*

@fravel @Fiona_Cunning 4/ Beijing’s attempts to remove any doubts in the minds of other nuclear powers that it can retaliate for a nuke attack.

Historically, China has maintained a relatively small nuclear force with around 200 warheads, it worried about the survivability of its small force.

@fravel @Fiona_Cunning 5/ Chinese experts worry that U.S. defenses could diminish China’s ability to retaliate if US 'drops the Bomb.'
Plus, US nuclear posture like Pentagon’s 2019 Ballistic Missile Defense Review or testing SM-3 interceptor against ICBM added to Chinese insecurities.

@fravel @Fiona_Cunning 6/ Beijing's solution to Chinese Insecurities - A larger nuclear arsenal, kept at a higher state of readiness! [Read it as Nuclear Arms Race]
And PRC's FOBS will help Chinese weapons overcome new missile defenses — a reminder that missile defenses can trigger counter-innovations.

@fravel @Fiona_Cunning 7/ A potential conflict over Taiwan raises the stakes.

A deafening Chinese aggression threating the conventional military balance in East Asia, one big question is if the US would go nuclear (like a low-yield nuclear weapons against a Chinese fleet) to deter PRC invading Taiwan.

@fravel @Fiona_Cunning 8/ Ergo, a larger nuke arsenal might secure PRC' confidence to deploy conventional capabilities - the “stability-instability” paradox: When adversaries care less about nuclear war cause they think their nukes are stalemated & they’re more likely to start nonnuclear conflicts.

@fravel @Fiona_Cunning 9/ While any changes to PRC’s nuke strategy are unclear, 3 Qs stand out about its use:
Will PRC engage in a “shell game,” like, only some silos are loaded with armed missiles?
Will PRC keep missiles mated with warheads in the silos?
And would it keep missiles on high readiness?

@fravel @Fiona_Cunning 10/ Two shifts in China’s nuclear thinking.

1st, PRC believes that it now need to threaten the US with greater nuclear damage to deter a U.S. first-strike.. so a handful of warheads is not enough!

2nd, PRC doesn't care about nuclear arms race, to overcome its insecurity.

END