Assuring Assured Retaliation: Why #China is Growing its Nuclear Arsenal - An Analysis

Prof. @fravel & Prof. @Fiona_Cunning analyze the latest revelations about PRC’s nuclear modernization.

It's unclear if the goals of PRC's nuke strategy are changing..

washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/…
@fravel @Fiona_Cunning 2/ The #US DoD's report assessed China's nuclear arsenal could quadruple by 2030.

PRC is building 3 missile-silo fields, which analysts expect to account for a significant increase in projected warhead stockpile.

PRC is modernizing, diversifying & expanding its nuke forces.
@fravel @Fiona_Cunning 3/ China also tested an orbital bombardment system with a hypersonic glider vehicle.

Why are these developments happening now?

*China may be expanding its options*
@fravel @Fiona_Cunning 4/ Beijing’s attempts to remove any doubts in the minds of other nuclear powers that it can retaliate for a nuke attack.

Historically, China has maintained a relatively small nuclear force with around 200 warheads, it worried about the survivability of its small force.
@fravel @Fiona_Cunning 5/ Chinese experts worry that U.S. defenses could diminish China’s ability to retaliate if US 'drops the Bomb.'
Plus, US nuclear posture like Pentagon’s 2019 Ballistic Missile Defense Review or testing SM-3 interceptor against ICBM added to Chinese insecurities.
@fravel @Fiona_Cunning 6/ Beijing's solution to Chinese Insecurities - A larger nuclear arsenal, kept at a higher state of readiness! [Read it as Nuclear Arms Race]
And PRC's FOBS will help Chinese weapons overcome new missile defenses — a reminder that missile defenses can trigger counter-innovations.
@fravel @Fiona_Cunning 7/ A potential conflict over Taiwan raises the stakes.

A deafening Chinese aggression threating the conventional military balance in East Asia, one big question is if the US would go nuclear (like a low-yield nuclear weapons against a Chinese fleet) to deter PRC invading Taiwan.
@fravel @Fiona_Cunning 8/ Ergo, a larger nuke arsenal might secure PRC' confidence to deploy conventional capabilities - the “stability-instability” paradox: When adversaries care less about nuclear war cause they think their nukes are stalemated & they’re more likely to start nonnuclear conflicts.
@fravel @Fiona_Cunning 9/ While any changes to PRC’s nuke strategy are unclear, 3 Qs stand out about its use:
Will PRC engage in a “shell game,” like, only some silos are loaded with armed missiles?
Will PRC keep missiles mated with warheads in the silos?
And would it keep missiles on high readiness?
@fravel @Fiona_Cunning 10/ Two shifts in China’s nuclear thinking.

1st, PRC believes that it now need to threaten the US with greater nuclear damage to deter a U.S. first-strike.. so a handful of warheads is not enough!

2nd, PRC doesn't care about nuclear arms race, to overcome its insecurity.

END

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More from @IndoPac_Info

9 Nov
The World Is Fed Up With China’s Belligerence

Democracies are less worried about offending a fragile Beijing.

Today, Beijing represents a frowning, finger-pointing, never-erring crank, its constant vitriol diminishes the effectiveness of Chinese anger.

theatlantic.com/international/… Image
2/ Not long ago, Beijing was economical & targeted with its outrage, only lashing out over major issues.

“Now China just picks fights out of arrogance and bullying.”

After all, if most moves are likely to anger Beijing, why hold back from any of them? Image
3/ The #USA has led the way in expanding ties with #Taiwan while grappling with an increasingly prickly China.
Similar dynamics are changing the minds of world leaders. In #Europe Beijing’s belligerence dented its image & inadvertently boosted #Taiwan 's international profile. Image
Read 6 tweets
9 Nov
The #ASEAN disunity over AUKUS

The #ASEAN sees #aukus pact increases geopolitical risks in the region, as #aukus is aimed at countering rising Chinese belligerence.
The rise of partnerships in the region, which are not ASEAN-centric causes them concern.

orfonline.org/expert-speak/t…
2/ How have various #ASEAN countries reacted to #aukus ?

They've not reacted in unison. Each member expressed its own views. The divergence in opinion was quite apparent.
Brunei did not speak about it.
Indonesia expressed caution with AUKUS.
Malaysia appears astonished. Image
3/ #Vietnam is more open to #aukus “All countries strive for the same goal of peace, stability, cooperation, and development” & nuclear power can be harnessed for development.

The #Philippines is more welcoming of the #aukus though President #Duterte sounded contradictory. Image
Read 5 tweets
6 Nov
China increasing depth near #India 's Siliguri corridor
“China is building an alternative axis in the Chumbi valley, which is close to the Siliguri corridor. They are increasing their depth by building roads through Bhutanese territory.”
- via @the_hindu
thehindu.com/news/national/… “China is building an alternative axis in the Chumbi valle
@the_hindu 2/ The U.S. DoD Report noted that despite dialogues to reduce border tensions, the PRC has “continued taking incremental & tactical actions to press its claims at the LAC.”
In this context, the recent MoU between Bhutan & China was significant & could have implications for India. Pic courtesy @Nambitiger1
3/ Coupled with this, "The PLA had conducted a month-long recruitment drive in Chumbi valley of around 400 Tibetan persons in August, according to intelligence inputs. The aim was to recruit at least one Tibetan aged 18-40 an household into the PLA militia."
Read 4 tweets
6 Oct
#THREAD: 1/ What the #US should do about #Taiwan

No one can doubt that #China is very close to attacking Taiwan.

Words from Washington are not enough as #Chinese warplanes step up their provocative incursions into Taiwan's airspace.

A great read!
asiatimes.com/2021/10/what-t…
2/ Taiwan so far has exercised restraint, putting its F-16s and other aircraft into the sky to challenge Chinese incursions into its air defense zone (ADIZ) but not firing on the intruding aircraft. But if a mistake happens, it will end up a bloody mess.
3/ The US State Department had issued a strong statement condemning China’s violations of Taiwan’s ADIZ even before China responded by sending in 52 planes on Monday. It appears that China does not take Washington seriously and doesn’t care at all what the State Department says.
Read 8 tweets
2 Oct
1/ #THREAD: #Submarine rescue ships in the Pacific

HQ-927 Yet Kieu sub rescue ship of the #Vietnamese Navy is the latest one

It supports #Vietnam's 6 Kilo-class submarines, it was just commissioned this year

Only Vietnam, #Singapore & #Malaysia have sub rescue ships in #ASEAN
2/ The Yet Kieu is designed to rescue submarines & surface ships, survey the seabed & search & recover undersea objects.

Built by the #Vietnamese 189 military owned shipyard.

It measures 94m long x 16m wide and has a displacement of 4,000 tons.
3/ The Republic of #Singapore Navy (RSN) operates the MV Swift Rescue, submarine support & rescue vessel (SSRV).

It is equipped with the deep-submergence rescue vehicle Deep Search and Rescue Six (DSAR 6)

Displacement: 4,290 tons
Length: 85 m
Completed on April 2009
Read 9 tweets
9 Jul
#Tibetan monks receive 'apocalyptically harsh' sentences in secret #Chinese trials

#China's crackdown against #Tibetans intensifies.

A new report revealed for the first time that four monks were sentenced up to 20 years in prison on unknown charges.
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-0…
2/ The 61-page report by Human Rights Watch found four monks from Tengdro monastery in Tingri county – Choegyal Wangpo, Lobsang Jinpa, Norbu Dondrup, and Ngawang Yeshe – were sentenced to 20, 19, 17, and five years respectively in September 2020.
3/ They were detained after police received a lost phone belonging to Choegyal Wangpo in 2019.

His phone revealed messages sent to exiled monks in a sister monastery in Nepal, and evidence of humanitarian donations following the 2015 earthquake.
Read 4 tweets

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