Jeff Seldin Profile picture
Feb 7 17 tweets 17 min read
NEW: Latest US intel warning abt possible #Russia military invasion of #Ukraine - "We take all these signs very seriously" #Latvia DefMin @Pabriks tells @gmfus
"It's not only about #Ukraine" per #Latvia DefMin @Pabriks "[Putin] wants not only to subjugate #Ukraine"
#Latvia's @Pabriks says it appears #Russia's #Putin was gambling that by applying pressure on #Ukraine that West would fold already

"I think the decision is not made yet" on invasion BUT "Putin is putting himself & Russia in the corner" he says, warning "He needs to act"
"Nothing today signals to us that #Russia is trying to ease pressure on the borders" of #Ukraine, per #Latvia DefMin @Pabriks
Current stance by @NATO, West re #Russia has been critical bcs "They were not taking us seriously enough"
per #Latvia DefMin @Pabriks, citing even red lines that were not enforced in other places, like #Syria
On White House mtg between @POTUS & #Germany Chancellor Olaf Scholz - "We would also like to hear that #Germany is ready to reconsider its military support to its allies" per #Latvia DefMin @Pabriks
#Latvia DefMin @Pabriks, in asking for "larger support & understanding" from #Berlin, notes Latvia has been dealing w/hybrid migrant attacks coming from #Belarus
"For God's sake, who is threatening #Russia at the moment?" per #Latvia DefMin @Pabriks

"Nobody threatens Russia...Let's not agree to the Russian proposed definitions"
#Latvia DefMin @Pabriks says if Latvia, #Poland, others did not join @NATO, they would now be in the same situation as #Ukraine vis a vis #Russia
"Good tacticians but I don't think they are good at strategy" #Latvia DefMin @Pabriks says #Russia, agreeing that its current posture is getting the #Kremlin exactly what it says it doesn't want
"There are certain threats or possibilities that if invasion in #Ukraine starts, instability in #Russia may grow"
per #Latvia DefMin @Pabriks

Says even regime change could be possible in Russia, which would bring more instability for everyone
Stability in #Russia - "It's not at all, I guarantee" per #Latvia DefMin @Pabriks
#Belarus "solidly in the mercy of #Moscow" per #Latvia DefMin @Pabriks

Says +30,000 #Russia|n troops currently in Belarus, which are also a threat to #Latvia
"We are ready to punch above our weight, but of course we need assistance, knowing the geography" per #Latvia DefMin @Pabriks
"Please, consider a larger military financial assistance to our armies" per #Latvia DefMin @Pabriks on message to US, #Canada, other allies

Says air defense systems needed & permanent presence of US troops also would help bcs pressure on Latvia's border will not abate
Also, "ask our friends in #Berlin & other countries" to follow US example, per #Latvia DefMin @Pabriks
#Russia-#China is a "technical alliance of a short period" per #Latvia DefMin @Pabriks

China "has a different type of mentality & political culture" he says "I don't think they will act as Russians are acting" though #Beijing could use #Moscow in the short-term

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More from @jseldin

Feb 7
BREAKING: @DHSgov updates its National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) Bulletin

US "remains in a heightened threat environment fueled by several factors, including an online environment filled with false or misleading narratives and conspiracy theories..."
MORE: Per new @DHSgov #NTAS bulletin, heightened threat environment in the US further fuled by "other forms of mis- dis- and mal-information (MDM) introduced and/or amplified by foreign & domestic threat actors"
MORE: Mass casualty attacks/targeted violence conducted by lone offenders, small groups acting in furtherance of ideological beliefs and/or personal grievances "pose an ongoing threat to the nation" per @DHSgov
Read 9 tweets
Feb 4
NEW: Growing concerns abt #ISIS-#Khorasan

Just releases @UN intel report finds ISIS' affiliate in #Afghanistan may have doubled in size since US left & now has close to 4,000 fighters

In August, @CENTCOM said there were at least 2,000 hardcore ISIS-K
Per @UN report, up to half of #ISIS-#Khorasan could be #foreignfighters

ISIS-K also now "controls limited territory in eastern #Afghanistan...capable of conducting high-profile & complex attacks"
#ISIS-#Khorasan also getting money from ISIS core, per @UN member state intel - possibly in the low hundreds of thousands of dollars

"The ISIL core is assessed to have allocated in excess of $500,000 for the support of ISIL-K"
Read 4 tweets
Feb 4
NEW: Dead #ISIS leader was taking "extreme measures" for security prior to his death

Just released @UN report says one intel agency concluded Amir Muhammad Sa’id Abdal-Rahman al-#Mawla (aka Au Ibrahim al-Hashimi al #Qurashi) banned electronics from being carried in his vicinity
.@UN report also says the now dead #ISIS leader was "believed to move regularly between #Iraq & the #Syria|n Arab Republic"

US officials said they had tracked al-#Mawla to his hideout in #Idlib, that he never left & that op had been planned for months
Per @UN intel report, compiled prior to the #ISIS leader's death, "The #Idlib de-escalation zone remains important for [#ISIS] as a strategic location providing limited safe haven; some ISIL activity is noted near the Turkish border"
Read 9 tweets
Feb 4
Happening NOW: @CENTCOM Cmdr Gen. Kenneth "Frank" McKenzie briefs on the investigation into the August 26, 2021 #ISIS-#Khorasan bombing at Abbey Gate, Hamid Karzai International Airport that killed 13 US servicemembers & at least 170 Afghans Image
"The investigation found that a single, explosive device killed at least 170 Afghan civilians & 13 U.S. servicemembers by explosively directing ball bearings through a packed crowd and into our men & women at Abbey gate" per @CENTCOM's McKenzie
"The investigation found no definitive proof that anyone was ever hit or killed by gunfire, either U.S. or Afghan" per @CENTCOM's McKenzie, citing more than 100 sworn witnesses
Read 17 tweets
Feb 3
Happening now: @POTUS talks about operation that led to the death of #ISIS leader Amir Muhammad Sa'id Abdal-Rahman al-Mawla, aka Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi and as Hajji ‘Abdallah

Says al-Malwa "responsible for the recent brutal attack on a prison in northeast #Syria"
.@POTUS says #ISIS leader al-Malwa "chose to blow himself up...in a final act of cowardice...just like his predecessor did"
.@POTUS says operation was aided by #SDF and US intel
Read 13 tweets
Feb 3
BREAKING: US KILLS #ISIS LEADER Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi - PER @POTUS
BREAKING: "Thanks to the skill and bravery of our Armed Forces, we have taken off the battlefield Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi—the leader of #ISIS" per @POTUS statement
MORE: "Last night at my direction, U.S. military forces in northwest Syria successfully undertook a counterterrorism operation to protect the American people and our Allies, and make the world a safer place" per @POTUS "All Americans have returned safely from the operation"
Read 4 tweets

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