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Samuel Ramani Profile picture
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Mar 2 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Starting a thread to aggregate the responses of African countries to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as it progresses

Many interesting developments so far, which I will highlight in it
Eritrea 🇪🇷 is Africa's sole defender of Russia 🇷🇺 in the UNGA even though it did not back Russia on Crimea in 2014

/1
The Central African Republic 🇨🇫 has also shown fealty towards Russia 🇷🇺 but that did not extend to the UNGA

Also, Wagner Group PMCs reportedly moved from CAR to Ukraine prior to the war's outbreak

/2
Sudan 🇸🇩 has chosen to stay neutral in Ukraine but has also stepped up engagement with Russia 🇷🇺

Hemedti's meeting with Russian officials is critical, as Moscow had few ties with the RSF chief

/3

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More from @SamRamani2

Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Mar 3
Russia has not made extensive use of cyberattacks in Ukraine

The Economist has described cyber as the dog that didn't bark in Russia's war on Ukraine

I will add some context about Russia's cyber restraint in this thread below
The nature of the war explains a lot:
Another theory is that Russia has little interest in destroying Ukraine's core economic infrastructure via cyberattacks.

Instead, given the logistical problems the Russian military has faced so far, it might benefit from keeping it intact, occupying and using it.
Read 9 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Feb 27
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been largely out of step with public opinion

The rally around the flag effect that Vladimir Putin enjoyed after the 2014 Crimea annexation is unlikely to repeat itself

In this thread, I explain why
A majority of Russians consistently believe that Ukraine, the US and NATO were the aggressors in Donbas

However, support for a military intervention to back Donetsk and Luhansk separatists is low

Just 43% of Russians back a war for this purpose (2021 Levada Center data)
Anti-Westernism has also ebbed considerably in Russia

From 2014-2021, positive views of the United States soared from 12% to 45%

The EU's image has improved in a similar fashion
Read 7 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Apr 2, 2021
Why is the conflict in #Russia and #Ukraine heating up again?

Three factors stand out:

1) Testing Joe Biden

2) Russian Domestic Politics

3) The Dynamics of Russia-Ukraine Bilateral Relations

This thread explains whats happening in Ukraine

[THREAD]
First of all, tensions between Russia and Ukraine have steadily grown since late January.

At least 20 Ukrainian service members have died in clashes.

The current escalation follows an alarming trend of rising hostilities.
In Washington, Russia's actions in Donbas are often viewed as a test of the Biden administration's resolve

Sensing this, the Biden administration has firmly backed Ukraine

The US cannot deter Russia's incursions, but can use targeted sanctions on Russia and sell arms to Ukraine
Read 7 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Dec 23, 2020
GLOBAL RUSSIA ROUNDUP:

As Joe Biden's inauguration nears, U.S.-Russia tensions are rising.

#Russia is also expanding its military presence in the Central African Republic and carrying out provocative military drills with #China.

Read about this and more in today's roundup!
1) Sergei Lavrov described US sanctions today as "hostile" and vowed to retaliate.

Visa restrictions appear to be #Russia's retaliation of choice.

But rhetoric is getting caustic, as a Russian central bank official warned of US sanctions causing the collapse of the US dollar.
2) Donald Trump accused #Egypt of taking US aid to purchase arms from #Russia.

Now that S-400 sanctions have been imposed on #Turkey, Egypt's military links with Russia could gain more scrutiny in the US.

This could force Egypt to rely more on #France for arms.
Read 7 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Nov 12, 2020
The US relationship with #Turkey is expected to be tense under Joe Biden, but there are also opportunities for cooperation.

In this thread, I outline the areas of cooperation and conflict
1) Northern Syria- Conflict

The US under Biden will stridently criticize a Turkish offensive against Kurdish militias in Northern #Syria and might repair strained ties with Syrian Kurds.

This will inflame tensions with #Turkey.
2) Idlib- Cooperation

A key Biden advisor has already endorsed Turkey's efforts to protect civilians in Idlib from #Russia and Assad.
Read 7 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Nov 8, 2020
Saudi Arabia just congratulated Joe Biden on his victory

What does a #Biden victory mean for #KSA and the US-Saudi Arabia relationship?

Read this thread for my thoughts on this important subject. Image
The consensus is that Saudi Arabia wanted #Trump to win and its belated congratulation of Biden underscored this fact.

A withdrawal of US backing in #Yemen, a new #Iran nuclear deal and possible arms sale restrictions loom not to mention Biden's support for green tech.
Saudi Arabia could respond by deepening economic ties with #China and diplomatic relations with #Russia.

But it knows neither country can supersede the US as a partner, it needs to find a new way to engage the United States.
Read 6 tweets

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