#BASF freezes new business in #Russia but commits to existing business which includes developing a ‘zero carbon’ nickel pipeline into Germany via Finland for lithium ion batteries and #EVreuters.com/article/ukrain…
European battery and EV makers need the more localised Nornickel - BASF nickel unless they want to rely more on Indonesia and China sources for the bulk of nickel needs.
And comes with its own ESG issues to deal with: tailings disposal, deforestation, carbon footprint.
More high quality battery ready nickel sources means more batteries and more electric vehicles.
It also means less ICE vehicles and less oil.
Note: Russia supplies 25% of Europe’s oil and 40% of Europe’s diesel.
A moral clash of ideals: environment, technology, geopolitics, humanitarian. Take your pick.
Deglobalising and decarbonising has a cost. And the pathways are anything but straight.
In response to #Russia, #BASF turns to 🇨🇦 Canada … the geopolitics of the worlds biggest chemicals company is one to watch.
Russia’s Nornickel (Norilsk) supplies 20% of world’s class 1 nickel - the suitable supply for lithium ion batteries and #ElectricVehicles (and 7% of global nickel)
Norilsk is the world’s largest class 1 nickel producer accounting for 20% of global supply
Norilsk overall accounts for 7% of all in nickel supply. But EV makers, auto OEMs and battery cell producers will terrified of losing 20% of a market with prices already at decade long highs.
China will not place real any sanctions on Russia and as a result ensure all #nickel continues to flow into its mainland and into Chinese made battery cells and EVs
Benchmark Lithium prices - Battery Grade, EXW China @benchmarkmin
Nov 2018 $11,875
Nov 2019 $7,950
Nov 2020 $6,100
Today $30,025
Structural shortage is set to hit in 2022.
Lithium carbonate prices are at all time highs but easy to see them soar above $40k in 2022
Lithium is the key element that this entire low carbon economy is being built on. With low cost energy storage en masse, speed, scale and economics will fall apart
The passed £1 Trillion US #InfrastructureBill is set to send lithium into a super bull market next year.
The White House has identified lithium ion batteries as a core technology.
“We will get America off the sidelines on manufacturing solar panels, wind farms, batteries, and electric vehicles to grow these supply chains”
In 2019 I was asked whether lithium prices in the next price surge would ever reach the highs of 2016.
My response was this time it would be more aggressive. Instead of the late 20s, prices in China would exceed $40,000/t
There are a few reasons…
This time there are more buyers than in 2016.
There are still not enough sellers: miners, refiners.
Demand for lithium is outstripping the rate supply is growing by double.
The wall of EV demand for lithium continued to build, esp 2026 and beyond.
Right now the lithium industry is responding in real time, in many ways, and isn’t addressing a massive demand issue that we face towards the latter end of the decade.
For this massive investment would be needed or DLE breakthroughs to help close the supply demand gap.