Russia’s Nornickel (Norilsk) supplies 20% of world’s class 1 nickel - the suitable supply for lithium ion batteries and #ElectricVehicles (and 7% of global nickel)
After #Putin invaded Crimea in 2014 and the west place weak sanctions, China’s #nickel imports from Russia surged in 2015 and 2016.
There’s no reason to believe China do anything but prop up Russia’s #nickel and natural resources industries #UkraineUnderAttack
All eyes are on Germany’s #BASF and this deal with #Nornickel which was a high profile #Auto and #EV supply chain blueprint for localising raw material supply
“As Europe is looking to build out a local supply chain, with locally sourced raw materials, this is a big headache for European automakers and cell producers,”
“It brings China and Russia ever closer together,” @GregMiller_BMI
Norilsk is the world’s largest class 1 nickel producer accounting for 20% of global supply
Norilsk overall accounts for 7% of all in nickel supply. But EV makers, auto OEMs and battery cell producers will terrified of losing 20% of a market with prices already at decade long highs.
China will not place real any sanctions on Russia and as a result ensure all #nickel continues to flow into its mainland and into Chinese made battery cells and EVs
Benchmark Lithium prices - Battery Grade, EXW China @benchmarkmin
Nov 2018 $11,875
Nov 2019 $7,950
Nov 2020 $6,100
Today $30,025
Structural shortage is set to hit in 2022.
Lithium carbonate prices are at all time highs but easy to see them soar above $40k in 2022
Lithium is the key element that this entire low carbon economy is being built on. With low cost energy storage en masse, speed, scale and economics will fall apart
The passed £1 Trillion US #InfrastructureBill is set to send lithium into a super bull market next year.
The White House has identified lithium ion batteries as a core technology.
“We will get America off the sidelines on manufacturing solar panels, wind farms, batteries, and electric vehicles to grow these supply chains”
In 2019 I was asked whether lithium prices in the next price surge would ever reach the highs of 2016.
My response was this time it would be more aggressive. Instead of the late 20s, prices in China would exceed $40,000/t
There are a few reasons…
This time there are more buyers than in 2016.
There are still not enough sellers: miners, refiners.
Demand for lithium is outstripping the rate supply is growing by double.
The wall of EV demand for lithium continued to build, esp 2026 and beyond.
Right now the lithium industry is responding in real time, in many ways, and isn’t addressing a massive demand issue that we face towards the latter end of the decade.
For this massive investment would be needed or DLE breakthroughs to help close the supply demand gap.