Simon Moores Profile picture
Feb 27 11 tweets 11 min read
#Russia’s nickel & Germany’s #cathode and auto #EV industry.

Nornickel + #BASF: An long term term partnership descends into an unholy alliance

As Russia attacks Ukraine, our industry’s eyes are fixed on @BASF and what it does next

And here’s why…

#UkraineUnderAttack
Russia’s Nornickel (Norilsk) supplies 20% of world’s class 1 nickel - the suitable supply for lithium ion batteries and #ElectricVehicles (and 7% of global nickel)

Most of this goes to China.

#UkraineUnderAttack
Germany was relying on expanded future supply of Russian #nickel as a key pillar in its battery and #EV expansion

This is via the partnership between Nornickel and German chemical / cathode maker, #BASF

#UkraineUnderAttack
As @benchmarkmin’s @hjesanderson writes:

“Nornickel has portrayed its Harjavalta refinery as a key supplier of low-carbon
nickel for the electric vehicle industry.

The plant is increasing production from 65,000 tonnes of nickel… 100,000 tonnes by 2026” #UkraineUnderAttack
#BASF is reliant on this #nickel for:

1) making precursor cathode active material next door to Nornickel’s refinery in Harjavalta, Finland using 🇷🇺 nickel

2) this material is then shipped to Schwarzheide, 🇩🇪 to be made into cathode active materials

#UkraineUnderAttack
#BASF cathode based on 🇷🇺 nickel is then used in a wide variety of European lithium ion batteries and make their way into European #EV models

#UkraineUnderAttack
After #Putin invaded Crimea in 2014 and the west place weak sanctions, China’s #nickel imports from Russia surged in 2015 and 2016.

There’s no reason to believe China do anything but prop up Russia’s #nickel and natural resources industries #UkraineUnderAttack
All eyes are on Germany’s #BASF and this deal with #Nornickel which was a high profile #Auto and #EV supply chain blueprint for localising raw material supply

Will #BASF & #Nornickel cont to join forces when Russian forces are attempting to invade Ukraine? #UkraineUnderAttack
“As Europe is looking to build out a local supply chain, with locally sourced raw materials, this is a big headache for European automakers and cell producers,”

“It brings China and Russia ever closer together,” @GregMiller_BMI

#UkraineUnderAttack
#BASF customers - Germany’s biggest automotive #ElectricVehicles makers - have been outspoken critics of #cobalt from the #DRC

Will these same OEMs speak of Russian #nickel in the same way as DRC #cobalt?

#UkraineUnderAttack
Read more on #BASF of 🇩🇪 and Nornickel of 🇷🇺 and the key stats of the relationship here from @benchmarkmin

benchmarkminerals.com/membership/rus…

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More from @sdmoores

Feb 24
#RussiaUkraineConflict - we are getting a lot of inquiries about Russia and critical minerals, esp for #ElectricVehicles & #batteries

A few @benchmarkmin facts:

#Nickel is on red alert.

Norilsk is the world’s largest class 1 nickel producer accounting for 20% of global supply
Norilsk overall accounts for 7% of all in nickel supply. But EV makers, auto OEMs and battery cell producers will terrified of losing 20% of a market with prices already at decade long highs.
China will not place real any sanctions on Russia and as a result ensure all #nickel continues to flow into its mainland and into Chinese made battery cells and EVs

Follow @GregMiller_BMI @CDMRawles for more
Read 8 tweets
Nov 7, 2021
Benchmark Lithium prices - Battery Grade, EXW China @benchmarkmin

Nov 2018 $11,875
Nov 2019 $7,950
Nov 2020 $6,100
Today $30,025

Structural shortage is set to hit in 2022.

Lithium carbonate prices are at all time highs but easy to see them soar above $40k in 2022
Lithium is the key element that this entire low carbon economy is being built on. With low cost energy storage en masse, speed, scale and economics will fall apart

The passed £1 Trillion US #InfrastructureBill is set to send lithium into a super bull market next year.
The White House has identified lithium ion batteries as a core technology.

“We will get America off the sidelines on manufacturing solar panels, wind farms, batteries, and electric vehicles to grow these supply chains”
Read 12 tweets
Oct 26, 2021
Lithium ion battery prices are going up for the first time. Some said it would never happen. #EV

But rising lithium prices are the cause.

172% increase in Benchmark Lithium Price Index since this time in 2021 says it all

Automakers to take the hit

More TBA @benchmarkmin
Lithium carbonate price increases have hurt the most.

These have risen 200% y-o-y on the Benchmark Lithium Price Index
Crazy thing is we are not even hitting a major shortage of lithium until next year.

This lithium price squeeze could turn into a lithium price crisis for those not locked into long term contracts.

benchmarkminerals.com/lithium-prices/
Read 8 tweets
Oct 25, 2021
❗️High raw material prices are starting to push some lithium ion battery cell prices up

This is what ⁦@benchmarkmin⁩ warned of last year below

To understand batteries you need to know your supply chains #lithium #nickel #cobalt #graphite #manganese benchmarkminerals.com/membership/lit…
How Team @benchmarkmin called an end to the major declines in lithium ion battery prices.

A must read here: benchmarkminerals.com/membership/ben…
The way to keep battery costs low and falling is the inclusion and expansion of #LFP cathode which has expanded massively in China

benchmarkminerals.com/membership/ben…
Read 4 tweets
Oct 6, 2021
<thread> Lithium prices.

In 2019 I was asked whether lithium prices in the next price surge would ever reach the highs of 2016.

My response was this time it would be more aggressive. Instead of the late 20s, prices in China would exceed $40,000/t

There are a few reasons…
This time there are more buyers than in 2016.

There are still not enough sellers: miners, refiners.

Demand for lithium is outstripping the rate supply is growing by double.

The wall of EV demand for lithium continued to build, esp 2026 and beyond.
Right now the lithium industry is responding in real time, in many ways, and isn’t addressing a massive demand issue that we face towards the latter end of the decade.

For this massive investment would be needed or DLE breakthroughs to help close the supply demand gap.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 5, 2020
<Tesla and Lithium >

5 @benchmarkmin Charts you need to know about Tesla and it’s lithium hydroxide production / spodumene plans.

1. Tesla is now official upstream of the lithium ion battery supply chain

✅ New cathode plant
✅ New Lithium Hydroxide plant
2. Lithium chemical refining is going global, not just in China

Production of lithium from spodumene has traditionally been the reserve of China.

Lithium chemical plants are now being established outside of China incl 🇦🇺 🇯🇵 🇰🇷 and now 🇺🇸 (Tesla)
3. More control over spodumene (lithium feedstock) prices

In the last lithium price surge, spodumene rose to above $900/tonne (@benchmarkmin prices).

Today it’s less than half.

Tesla will now buy spodumene directly for their own use.
Read 7 tweets

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