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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي

@evacool_

Dec 9

#Thread #Syria #Israel #Lebanon #Hezbollah #Iran #IRGC #IDF #USA #Iraq #France #Russia #Trump #Turkey #HTS #FSA
#Damascus is freed from Assad and the armed Syrian opposition reached his presidential palace while the Israeli warplanes were starting a military operation in Syria by air and land. A geopolitical reading of the Syrian-Israeli border between concerns in Israel and hopes in Damascus.
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First, I will present to you the latest field developments of the Israeli military operation that was launched on Syrian territory:
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At dawn yesterday, December 8, at around five in the morning, while the armed Syrian opposition forces had begun to enter the Syrian capital, #Damascus, the Israeli Air Force launched the first wave of attacks, which targeted strategic warehouses of the Syrian army in the Jabal al-Manea area in al-Kiswah and in the western Damascus countryside, and scientific research centers in the Jamraya area, where chemical weapons are developed and manufactured. This wave was followed by more air raids yesterday and today, which expanded to include air defense batteries, missile warehouses, military development centers, defense factories, radars, and chemical weapons warehouses in Damascus and its surroundings, and the provinces of Daraa, Sweida, Aleppo, Deir ez-Zor, Latakia, Tartous, Yafour and the Masyaf area, in addition to targeting the security square and the immigration and passports building in the heart of the Syrian capital, Damascus. These raids, as a security source confirmed to me, will continue for several days.
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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي

@evacool_

Dec 6

#Thread #Syria #Iran #IRGC #Israel #Lebanon #Hezbollah #IDF #USA #Yemen #Iraq #France #Russia #Trump #Russia #Turkey #UAE
In light of the acceleration of events in the Syrian arena, I will present the latest field developments with my vision of regional movements in the coming period.
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On the ground:
The Syrian armed opposition is still advancing in the northern #Homs countryside and has reached the outskirts of Homs city, while the city has been witnessing since yesterday evening the withdrawal of Assad's forces towards #Tartous and #Damascus, with the ongoing collapse of the #Assad regime's military bases in the eastern Homs countryside.
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In eastern #Syria, the #Assad army withdrew from the cities of Deir ez-Zor and Al-Mayadeen towards Homs, Damascus and Tartous, and the Iraqi and Afghan militias emptied the city of Albukamal towards Iraq, while the #SDF forces advanced within Deir ez-Zor province and took control of Deir ez-Zor military airport, with the Syrian armed opposition moving eastward while information from the field confirms their arrival to the outskirts of Deir ez-Zor.
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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي

@evacool_

Dec 5

#Thread #Syria #Iran #IRGC #Israel #Lebanon #Hezbollah #IDF #USA #Yemen #Iraq #France #Russia #Trump #Russia #Turkey #UAE
The city of Hama is under the control of the armed Syrian opposition, in an event that was not surprising after the dramatic retreat of the Assad army and its Iranian-backed militia allies in Aleppo and its surroundings. A reading of the circumstances of this development and what may come after it.
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The Syrian regime is no longer as militarily and security-wise as it was in 2011, and its allies in #Iran are no longer as strong and as powerful as they were in 2013 when they began their military intervention in #Syria. Similarly, #Hezbollah is no longer as it was in 2012 when it penetrated #Damascus and the southern countryside of #Homs and #Russia today is not Russia of 2015. On the other hand, the armed Syrian opposition today is no more numerous than it was in the first years of the revolution, and it does not have the allies and friends it had before. The Sunni countries in the region abandoned them, and #Europe forgot about #Assad's crimes and recently knocked on his door in preparation for restoring diplomatic relations. With Trump coming to the White House, it has become clear that the withdrawal of #US forces from eastern Syria is a matter of time. So, what happened? In my opinion, beyond politics and military, freedom triumphs again over dictatorship, no matter how solid and cohesive this dictatorship seems.
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Militarily, I had provided a detailed explanation of the military reality of the two parties to the conflict before the start of this military operation that was launched on November 27 and has so far led to the armed Syrian opposition controlling the entire #Aleppo Governorate, the southern and eastern #Idlib countryside, the northern and eastern #Hama countryside, the city of Hama, and parts of the northern #Homs countryside. After the collapse of #Assad’s forces in Aleppo Governorate, the regime tried to quickly re-form a defensive line in the northern Hama countryside, but this line did not hold for more than 3 days due to the moral collapse of Assad’s forces and limited air cover from his Russian allies, while #Iran was busy searching for a way out for Assad from this predicament.👇👇👇
x.com/evacool_/statu…
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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي

@evacool_

Dec 2

#Thread #Israel #Lebanon #Syria #Hezbollah #IDF #Iran #IRGC #Syria #Hamas #Gaza #USA #Yemen #Iraq #France #Russia #Trump #Russia #Turkey #UAE
About six days after the implementation of the American plan for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, the sirens began to sound again in northern Israel. A reading of the impact of events in the Syrian arena on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border.
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This #Hezbollah militia missile attack on northern Israel was not a surprise to me personally, just as I was not surprised by the Israeli strikes that targeted the militia’s violating moves in #Lebanon. It was naive for anyone in Netanyahu’s government to expect that Hezbollah would abide by the terms of the agreement, the content of which would limit their influence over the Lebanese state and the region. From the point of view of the militia’s leadership and their masters in Tehran, their approval of this agreement is what is known as taqiyya, which is to show something other than what you mean. They wanted to stop the militia’s human and military depletion in the hope that they would do what they did after the 2006 war, and that Netanyahu’s government would not be prepared to engage in war again once it stopped.
x.com/evacool_/statu…
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Indeed, since the first day of the ceasefire, the militia fighters began moving some of their equipment north of the Litani River towards new locations, and some of them moved south of the Litani River in civilian clothes in an operation to cover up their infrastructure from the eyes of the monitoring committee of the agreement. Yes, groups of the militia withdrew from the front line towards north of the Litani River, while alternative forces took their place. All of these movements took place under the eyes of the Lebanese army and the Lebanese state. While the militia began to reorganize its internal affairs in Lebanon, the armed Syrian opposition began a surprise military operation that carried fears and opportunities for #Hezbollah and Tehran. It is necessary to read my thread about what happened in #Aleppo.
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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي

@evacool_

Nov 10

#Thread #Hezbollah #Lebanon #Israel #IDF #Iran #IRGC #Syria #Hamas #Gaza #USA #IDF #Yemen #Iraq #France #Russia #Trump
As the Israeli military operation against Hezbollah militia in Lebanon continues, a detailed reading of the latest developments in this conflict between war and diplomatic efforts.
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Before going into the political analysis of the scene in #Beirut and #Jerusalem, I will start with the latest updates on the field reality on both sides of the border:
The #IDF are still destroying the infrastructure of the #Hezbollah militia in the border strip extending about 100 km and with a depth of about 3 to 4 km, while continuing operations targeting the militia’s fighters, leaders and warehouses throughout Lebanese territory, reaching the Lebanese capital Beirut, with a greater focus on areas south of the Litani River, the Beqaa Valley and the Syrian-Lebanese border. In parallel with the operation in #Lebanon, the Israeli Air Force is escalating its targeting of the militia’s sites, warehouses and leaders in Syrian territory, from Aleppo to Qusayr in the southern Homs countryside to the Sayyida Zeinab area south of the Syrian capital Damascus. This massive air operation, along with the assassination file and the cleansing of the border strip, is being presented in #Israel as a victory and defeat for Hezbollah.
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Despite the severe damage to the #Hezbollah militia's command ladder, the militia is still capable of launching between 100 and 200 rockets daily, most of them 107 caliber, with some medium-range rockets, some of which have reached Tel Aviv in the past few days. The militia has also returned to relying more on suicide drones of the Shahed 101 and Sayyad 107 types, which are small in size and have a small, highly explosive warhead. Militia fighters are still stationed in advanced positions, some of which are only 3 km from the border with #Israel, equipped with anti-tank shells, some of which have a range of 8 km. Meanwhile, Unit 4400 of the militia, which is responsible for supplying weapons across the Syrian border, continues its work despite the assassination of 3 of its leaders. At the present time, the militia is focusing on preventing the #IDF from advancing on the ground as an achievement for the Lebanese interior and to present it as a victory for them and an Israeli defeat.
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Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي

@evacool_

Nov 2

#Thread #Iran #IRGC #Hezbollah #Lebanon #Israel #IDF #Syria #Hamas #Gaza #USA #IDF #Yemen #Iraq #France
In light of the increasing threats from Iranian officials, headed by #Khamenei, regarding the response to the recent Israeli attack in Iran, a reading from the Iranian perspective on the possibilities of this response, its timing, and the bank of expected targets.
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In a series of tweets published by the account of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei on the X platform, it was clearly indicated that the Iranian response to Israel is coming and will be strong, and the threat was also directed at the American side. In an eye-catching post, Khamenei recalled the attack by Khomeini’s followers on the American embassy in #Tehran in November 1979, which may carry implicit messages directed towards America that must be taken into consideration.
Before considering the Iranian response inevitable, we must first answer the logical question at the current stage, which is: Is Iran obligated to respond to the Israeli attack on the 26th of last month, which came in response to the Iranian missile attack on #Israel on the 1st of October?
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The short answer is No. #Iran is not obligated to respond to Israel, as Iranian sources tried to confirm before the Israeli attack, where it was indicated that Tehran would not respond if the Israeli strike was limited. The term ‘limited strike’ was understood at the time to mean that it did not target Iran’s nuclear program or oil and gas fields. In practice, the Israeli strike was limited, as #Tehran showed in its media about the success of its air defenses and the failure of the Israeli attack. Therefore, if the attack failed and the extent of the damage was limited, Tehran is not obligated to respond.
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