Thread : ๐งต
Today, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu announced that there are more than 16,000 volunteers ready to support and fight in #Lugansk and #Donetsk if #Russia requests it.
1/11 #Ukraine#USA#NATO#EU#UK#Biden
This announcement was not surprising to me or to those familiar with the scene in #Syria in particular and the Middle East in general. In my opinion, #Moscow is able to mobilize more than double that number and has already started accepting recruitment requests.
2/11
There are two types of militias in the Middle East, one part carrying a religious ideology (like #Hezbollah), and another part in the form of security companies, among which the fighters volunteered for economic reasons (25th Brigade in #Syria).
3/11
These militias are present in #Lebanon, #Syria, #Iraq and #Yemen. Through its relations with the Iranian regime on the one hand, and its protection of Assad in Syria on the other, #Moscow has built itself a network of relations with the militias of the Middle East.
4/11
Since its military intervention in #Syria 2015, Moscow has worked to recruit its own mercenaries operating under its orders, headed by the 25th Brigade, the 5th Corps, and the National Defense militias in the Christian towns in northern Hama countryside.
5/11
Local sources confirmed to me that #Moscow has more than ten offices, managed by Russian officers, spread in southern, central and western #Syria, through which it recruits them for economic reasons.
6/11
In #Iraq, through Russian-Iranian relations, #Russia cooperated with Iraqi militias to fight in #Syria against the Syrian opposition or even against #ISIS in the Syrian desert. Some of them are ready to fight with Russia in exchange for money.
7/11 #PMU
Since the first day of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine, the #Houthi militia in #Yemen has announced its support for Moscow. Despite the intensification of battles there, fighters from this militia may wish to fight with the Russian army.
8/11 #KSA#UAE
There are still two militias in the Middle East that are the most trained and experienced in street wars, the Iranian Quds Force and the Lebanese #Hezbollah . Those are directly following Khamenei's orders only, and their participation requires a political decision.
9/11 #Israel
#Putin and Shoigu's threat to bring in "mercenary" militias, confirms Putin's unwillingness to withdraw the Russian reserves and may mean that #Russia is forced to go into long-term guerrilla battles.
10/11
The West should monitor these militias carefully and make it clear that in case of their participation in the Russian invasion in #Ukraine they will be recognised as terrorist, and they will be targeted. The card of terrorism can be another tool in #Putin's hands.
12/12 #USA#EU
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#Thread #Cyprus #Hezbullah #Israel #USA #Iran #Greece #Hamas #Gaza
Although the speech by Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah was scheduled in advance, after the assassination of the military leader in the militia, Abu Talib, its timing was very sensitive, in light of the tension on the Lebanese-Israeli border reaching its peak and urgent American action to reduce this tension through an urgent visit of the White House envoy Amos Hochstein to Lebanon and Israel.
1 ๐งต
The speech carried many messages, the most important of which was #Nasrallahโs emphasis on continuing to support #Gaza until there is a ceasefire there, despite internal and international pressure led by the Americans and the French.
2/
This is not the first time that #Nasrallah has mentioned #Cyprus in his speeches. About a month ago, the leader of #Hezbollah referred to the visit of the Cypriot president to #Beirut, which came as part of #Nicosiaโs attempts to stop refugee boats, most of which depart from the Lebanese coast towards the island.
3/
#Thread #Israel #Gaza #Hamas #Hezbollah #USA #Iran #IRGC #Syria
About 48 hours after the Iranian attack on Israel, an analysis of the current scene in the race for who will impose his rules in the Middle East and the choices of politicians in Israel.
1 ๐งต
Before engaging in an analysis of the Iranian attack and the possible Israeli response, it is necessary to emphasize that both sides of the conflict do not want a comprehensive war. We are facing a race linked to the rules of influence and deterrence in the region.
2/
In #Tehran, the politicians there were facing very limited options to deal with the target of their consulate in #Damascus, among which the issue of not responding and absorbing the strike did not exist, because it would mean a resounding Iranian downfall.
3/
#Thread #Israel #Gaza #Hamas #Hezbollah #USA #Iran #IRGC #Syria
In the most dangerous escalation in the Middle East since the attacks of October 7, the Israeli Air Force targeted with six missiles the Iranian consulate building and the residence of the Iranian ambassador in the Syrian capital, #Damascus.
The building, which belongs to the Iranian embassy and consists of four floors, is considered a very important security center through which leaders of the #IRGC manage their operations and plans in #Lebanon and #Syria, and it is considered Iranian territory. 2/
According to the latest updates, the Iranian side has acknowledged the killing of 7 Iranians, the most important of whom is the head of the IRGC in Syria and Lebanon General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, his assistant Mohammad Haj Rahimi, and Hussein Amirullah in addition to a number of #IRGC officers.
3/
#Thread #Israel #Gaza #IDF #Hamas #USA #Iran
Hours before the truce in the Gaza Strip enters into force, read the latest military and geopolitical developments for both sides of the war and the regional scene.
1/๐งต
Although one of the terms of this truce is that it will last for four days, during these four days both #Qatar and the #US will work to intensify negotiations between the two sides of the war to extend this truce in exchange for the release of more hostages.
2/
In practice, the #IDF will take advantage of this truce to reorganize its forces on the ground and intensify the collection of intelligence information in parallel with assessing what has been achieved in recent weeks.
3/
#Thread #Israel #Lebanon #Hezbollah #US #Hamas #Gaza
In light of the Israeli Defense Forcesโ evacuation of all towns adjacent to the border with Lebanon, Israeli politicians began to wonder about the future of these borders after Gaza. What solutions are on the table?
1/๐งต๐
Since Oct. 7 attack, the Israeli admin. adopted the decision to evacuate many towns close to the Lebanese border. Gradually, the evacuation process began to expand until it included all the villages to a depth of 5 km, with talk of expanding to 8 or 10 km.
2/
Oct. 7 attack has become an obsession among the residents of northern #Israel, who fear that they will face an attack similar to what #Hamas carried out, but through #Hezbollah. From this standpoint, a number of them may not want to return to their towns without solutions.
3/
Although I personally understand the Saudi concerns which led to this policy, I see it as a huge mistake and that Saudi Arabia will not be a winner from it. Surprisingly, the biggest winners from this energy crisis are #Russia and #Iran. 1/7 #KSA#USA#Biden#Ukraine#Israel#UAE
Because of the ongoing war on #Ukraine and the economic sanctions on #Russia , the rise in energy prices makes the imports of oil gas very important to cover #Moscow's depletion in other fields.
2/7
Moscow has already started exploiting the card of energy externally as well by blackmailing Europe and raising its exports to eastern countries at much lower prices. 3/7