1/ Viewed from the perspective of #EU & #NATO members only, I fear that a strict policy of non-intervention is demoralising for us and emboldening for #Russia and #China. What do our governments think the world will look like in the next few years if Russia ultimately prevails?
2/ We should not underestimate the demoralising effects on the West of the suffering of the Ukrainian nation and of the brazen and massive violations of International Law and of every principle of civilised behaviour now pursued by the #fascist #dictatorship in #Moscow.
3/ Our nations and governments must be fully mobilised in the service of what we hold most dear, not only in the defence of our territories, but also in the defence of the freedom of #Ukraine. Stepping behind the triple red line of #NATO is not enough.
4/ Sanctions and limited arms supplies constitute a reasonably clear response so far. But further afield, other parts of the world will wait and see. #China is largely pro-Moscow. #India and #Israel are cynical. In our own nations, Kremlin-friendly forces are very much alive.
5/ In short, we've only just started to respond to the greatest challenge to our civilisation since the Second World War. I believe a Russian defeat and the collapse of Putin's imperial project would be the best outcome.
6/ Short of an overt intervention, we should at least create fear and uncertainty in the Kremlin, rather than repeatedly broadcast absolute certainty about non-intervention. Nothing should be off the table. Our governments must want Putin to lose and work towards that goal.
END

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More from @EHunterChristie

Mar 10
1/ Not comfortable with tentative red lines on things that haven't happened yet, while other actions by the aggressor already destroy everything.
Syria: red line failed, and was not enforced. And counterfactual of red line working: no chemical weapons but destruction anyway.
2/ If West is serious about intervention, first decide firmly in secret. Define not a red line but a goal which necessarily implies enforcement and contact with the enemy (otherwise it's not an intervention)
Then don't hope they will move, be fully clear you'll make them.
3/ Doing so with a clearly limited goal but one that nevertheless tips the balance of the conflict could be highly valuable to the Western cause. So, the consideration of what limited goals could achieve that should be homework for military experts.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 9
1/ It is once again a time for choosing for the Western world. Our governments appear to be stabilising the #sanctions regime and stalling on the range of #weapons to #Ukraine. Insufficient pressure is dangerous. As we can see, #Russian aggression continues.
2/ Fundamentally, the more the forces of the aggressor state gain ground and surround cities, the more harm they can and will do against innocent civilians. But the more the invaders are pushed back and suffer high losses in men and materiel, the better.
3/ For this reason, I advocate a quantum leap in #military assistance to #Ukraine, covering a broader volume and range of equipment and training (locations and modalities for specialists to determine).
Covert actions in concert with #Ukraine's defenders could also be useful.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 8
1/ Fear of Russia has guided every single policy error and every single mistake of the West towards Moscow since 1999. Every close observer of the Chekist Regime has counterfactuals in mind. 2nd Chechen War non-reaction, Georgia War non-reaction, Crimea "surprise"...
2/ Energy "mutual dependence", and our favourite mistake since 2014, "escalation dominance". This is a controlled 20-year trajectory which has ensured impunity for the Chekist Regime's worst crimes, because the worst crimes always come with the manufacture of a high dose of fear.
3/ Responses to the Chekist threat are thus always an order of magnitude lower than what would be required. With a full-scale war of aggression on a European neighbour, we still reasoned mainly in terms of sanctions. That was not enough, and Moscow went in anyway.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 3
1/ We should do more to support #Ukraine militarily.
It is tempting to fear the mental condition of Mr. Putin. But this neglects how easy it is for the Putin regime to shape our perceptions, what with long tables and angry ramblings. His little circus should be ignored.
2/ We should supply whatever equipment #Ukraine asks for, excluding WMDs. UCAVs similar to the TB2 seem helpful, let's get plenty more over, and other similar systems. Ukrainians need to be able to demolish advancing columns of hostile forces. It's a win-win.
3/ There's also the maritime dimension. Various capabilities should be supplied to Ukraine. Again it's a win-win. The more Russian ships lie at the bottom of the Black Sea, the better for everyone in the region.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 21
1 - For a stronger West - thread
Although the emotional states of *some* of our leaders are adequately heightened, the policy responses discussed so far - #sanctions, new #NATO battle groups - are much too weak to respond to the enormity of the challenge to our way of life
2 - The prospective #Russian invasion of #Ukraine should be compared to the invasion of #Poland in 1939. Consider #Ukraine's size, a larger territory than #France, a larger pop. than #Poland. Consider #China and the axis of the two enormous dictatorships.
3 - I am not forecasting a genocide or a world war, but we are at the point of gravest danger for Western civilisation since, I would argue, the *early* Cold War (or the 1930s). And yet look at #Europe, our #military capabilities and investments are ridiculous.
Read 12 tweets
Feb 20
1/ On #sanctions and #Russia. Nothing in the package has a characteristic of a "bomb", they are rather like flames. The longer they hold the more they hurt, and if lifted, they cease to hurt and most of the damage is lifted.
Apply them now, lift if behavioural improvement.
2/ Big difference btw deterrence and leverage. Best deterrent causes acute damage once, like a military strike. Best leverage is enduring damage over time.
Sanctions = leverage, not deterrence.
Forget trigger condition. Formulate condition for lifting.
3/
a/ If RU seeks imperial restoration and confrontation (assumption), sanction now and further measures later for our security & defence capabilities.
b/ If RU has minor Ukraine objective but wants business w. EU (alt assumption), then sanctions now, RU will change behaviour.
Read 4 tweets

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