#RussianUkrainianWar Update - #Russia has launched a new offensive across the entirety of the eastern front. #Ukraine️ troops have had limited success at slowing the attacks but 🇷🇺 is gaining ground across most of this map right now. Area to watch short term is circled in blue.
This blue circle represents nearly 40% of the #UkraineArmy combat power and its currently at risk of being cut off from the rest of the country. The #Russians will attempt to connect the #Izyum axis with an attack from somewhere in the south likely around #Horlivka.
If the #Russians can encircle those troops they will try to bleed them dry of ammo and manpower just like in #Mariupol. The #Russians have re-opened a southern axis in an attempt to start that encirclement and have taken the town of Malynivk and are close to taking others.
That being said, #Russians have generally underperformed expectations of most western military experts as well as their own. Whether or not they can accomplish this operation without similar results as the Battle of #Kiev is yet to be determined.
In addition, #Ukraine armed forces have exceeded expectations of most western military experts as well as their own. #Ukraine gets a vote in the outcome of this battle too. Much will depend on if the #Russians have solved their C2 and logistics problems.
And whether or not #Ukraine can sustain this pace of operations and resupply. A lot of western weapons were sent to #Ukraine but many of those weapons are still in areas near #Kiev and #Sumy, not #Kramatorsk. #Russia has been targeting infrastructure to keep those weapons away.
The area around the #Kramatorsk has seen a stalemate in operations for the most part. However, #Russia just moved 11 more BTGs into the area with another 22 being readied for deployment. Those new troops could tip the scales in 🇷🇺’s favor. defense.gov/News/News-Stor…

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More from @AggregateOsint

Apr 21
#Izyum Axis and ISW Map - #Russian forces made small gains around #Severodonetsk by fully capturing Stara Krasnyanka and consolidating gains around #Kreminna. #Russia also appears to be making headway in #Rubizhne with #Ukraine troops pushed out of the city center. 🧵 Image
To the south of #Izyum, the #Russians have pushed into the village of Dibrovne (circled in white) and the area is now contested. 🇷🇺 assaults on several smaller villages in the area were repelled by #Ukrainian forces. Image
To the south of #Izyum #Russian forces were stopped before reaching the city limits of Dovhen’ke. #Ukraianian troops inflicted heavy losses on the attacking 🇷🇺, who retreated after suffering too many casualties. Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 20
#Izyum Axis Update - #Russian forces are rapidly pushing #Ukrainian troops out of the town of #Rubizhne. The #Chechen and Russia flag have been raised on the edge of the town and #Ukraine is falling back. The sign in this video is the Rubizhne sign coming into the town.
Latest map of #Izyum Axis. #Ukraine needs to hold the town of #Rubizhne to prevent #Russia from starting encirclement of #Severodonetsk by cutting off primary logistics routes to the south. #Russia likely wants to isolate the city and UAF inside similar to #Mariupol. Image
The capture of #Severodonetsk would represent a much needed victory for #Russia. However, #Ukrainian Armed Forces have been determined to not sacrifice large population centers without a fight.#Rubizhne is the first step in the battle for #Severodonetsk.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 20
Today the international community offered the following military assistance to #Ukraine to support it through the #UkraineRussiaWar: The #Czech MoD will repair armored vehicles and return them to combat.
#Romania has offered up a substantial amount of Soviet era weaponry.
#Canada has promised to provide heavy artillery as well as 150 military trainers.
#USA has offered heavy artillery as well as 40,000 rounds of 155mm arty ammo, fighter aircraft parts, which had previously been a sticking point amongst #NATO, and training on the new Arty system.
Mig-29’s will be transferred from an unknown #NATO ally and more parts will be provided by yet other unnamed allies. #Germany stated that it has nothing left to offer #Ukraine at the moment but will speak to its defense industry in consideration of possible future commitments.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 20
#Mariupol Update and ISW Map - small pockets of resistance remain in the urban parts of the city, but are primarily small groups of 1-4 defenders that were able to remain hidden. At the #Azovstal Plant, the #Russian forces have made entry and are actively clearing the grounds. Image
#Chechen fighters have been filming in warehouses of captured equipment and engaging in sporadic fighting with #Azov and #UAF still inside the main buildings. #Chechen TikTok videos have limited combat footage in them, which likely means little fighting is still taking place.
This morning 120 Ukrainian civilians left the plant via a humanitarian corridor, but were being guided by 🇷🇺 to an unk location. The #Ukrainian defenders in #Azovstal likely have near zero manpower or ammo, but did use an ATGM to destroy a #Russian armored vehicle this morning.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 19
#Russia has freely admitted via it’s state owned news RIA as well as other outlets that it has been #deporting #Ukraine️ citizens since the start of the #Ukraine️war. However, this would represent a serious increase in forced #deportations. reuters.com/world/europe/m…
#Russia is using “filtration” camps to screen #Ukraine️ citizens prior to #deportation to 🇷🇺. Ukraine believes 45,000 citizens have already been deported. These camps were also used in #Chechnya to filter out unwanted people. thedailybeast.com/russians-are-r…
Here is a #Russian owned RIA article from yesterday stating that #Mariupol citizens were being evacuated by 🇷🇺 to Bezymennoye, which is nearly 2,000km away. This is in spite of severely reduced fighting in the city.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 18
Commander of the #Azov Regiment, Denis Prokopenko, has released a video showing hundreds of civilians trapped alongside #Ukrainian defenders underneath the #Azovstal Metallurgical Plant in #Mariupol. The cities defenders are making a last stand against relentless #Russia attacks.
Here is the statement by Denis Prokopenko and a rough translation below. In summary he asks for a humanitarian corridor to evacuate the women and children civilians, wounded soldiers and dead, so that they can be buried with dignity.
I am commander of Azov regiment, Denis Prokopenko. I call to the leaders of the world. Right now, in Mariupol, at "Azovstal" steel factory hundreds of civilians are sheltering. Among them - people of all ages, women, children, families of Mariupol defenders.
Read 9 tweets

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