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Apr 26 • 13 tweets • 16 min read
Various signs, such as explosions, shelling of state security building & statement by #Russia military commander, suggest that pro-Russian separatist #Transdniestria in #Moldova & #Russian troops there can enter #RussiaUkraineWar.
#UkraineRussianWar #Transnistria #Ukraine️war
My dissertation-based "Cleft Countries" book analyzed pro-Western vs pro-Russian regional divides, separatism & conflicts in #Ukraine and #Moldova, in particular, in #Crimea, #Donbas, #Transdniestria & Gagauzia.

#Russia #UkraineRussianWar #RussiaUkraine
cup.columbia.edu/book/cleft-cou…
telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202…
Ministry of Internal Affairs of #Transnistria reports shooting & drones from #Ukraine direction in village of Kolbasna in this separatist region of #Moldova. One of largest weapon depos in Eastern Europe is located there. It is guarded by #Russian troops. newsmaker.md/rus/novosti/mv…
"Moldova's pro-Russian breakaway region of Transdniestria said on Wednesday that shots were fired from Ukraine towards a village that houses an ammunition depot, the latest report to raise concern that Russia's war in Ukraine might expand." #Transnistria
reuters.com/world/europe/m…
I said in @trtworld interview that situation in pro-Russian #Transdniestria is very dangerous & can escalate into war there involving #Ukraine & #Russia. #Moldova, which has strong links to #Romania, can enter this war that can spread to Turkic-speaking but pro-Russian Gagauzia.
@trtworld My @trtworld interview cont: #Transnistria is unrecognized pro-Russian republic with ethnic #Ukrainian president & population of ethnic #Russians, #Ukrainians & Moldovans. #Transdniestria was part of Soviet #Ukraine between WW1 & #WW2, while rest of #Moldova was part of #Romania.
@trtworld Turkic-speaking Gagauz were resettled from Ottoman Empire into #Moldova and Southern #Ukraine by #Russian Empire. They are Orthodox and expressed pro-Russian attitudes. Ethnic #Ukrainian president of #Transdniestria / #Transnistria is no longer in power.

researchgate.net/publication/24…
My @trtworld interview: “In this case, using Transnistria would be also consistent with US policy of doing this,” Ivan Katchanovski, a professor at the School of Political Studies at the University of Ottawa, told TRT World." #Transdniester #Ukraine trtworld.com/magazine/what-…
@trtworld "The Ukrainians, he explained, would have a definite military advantage in Transnistria given the small number of Russian troops stationed there. Moldova being dragged into the war would be a “dangerous development”, adds Katchanovski, because “in addition to this there is the"
"... possibility that Romania will also be compelled to do this” due to its close linguistic and historical ties with Moldova – where the majority of the population speaks Romanian." #Transnistria #Transnistrien #Transdniester #Transdniestria #Ukraine #Russia #UkraineRussiaWar
"“It would be dangerous to many other countries that are linked to Moldova and Transnistria and would have an impact on the people of this region,” Katchanovski said" #Transnistria #Transnistrien #Transdniester #Transdniestria #Ukraine #Russia #UkraineWar trtworld.com/magazine/what-…

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More from @I_Katchanovski

Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Apr 23
UN mission confirms #WarCrimes in #Bucha: "During a mission to Bucha on 9 April, UN human rights officers documented the unlawful killing, including by summary execution, of some 50 civilians." #Ukraine️ #Russia #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianUkrainianWar 1/ ohchr.org/en/press-relea…
UN: "Wilful killing of protected persons, including summary executions, are gross violations of international human rights law and serious violations of international humanitarian law, and amount to war crimes." 2/
"Since 24 February to midnight on 20 April, HRMMU has documented and verified 5,264 civilian casualties – 2,345 killed and 2,919 injured. Of these, 92.3 per cent (2,266 killed and 2,593 injured) were recorded in Government-controlled territory." #Ukraine️ #UkraineRussiaWar 3/
Read 10 tweets
Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Apr 23
Virtual #Russia - #Ukraine peace talks resumed yesterday: "According to Meduza's sources, who are familiar with the course of negotiations (from both the #Russian and #Ukrainian sides), several preliminary agreements were "concretized." #UkraineWar 1/ meduza.io/feature/2022/0…
"Two agreements are currently being discussed:
the first agreement, a political one, on the neutral, non-nuclear status of Ukraine and the security guarantees that the guarantor countries will have to provide...
and the second about "mutual respect for cultures..."
#Russia 2/
"Most important issue of the post-war borders of Ukraine has not yet been resolved. “There is an article in the agreement that the guarantor countries guarantee security within the borders of Ukraine, indicated on the map. The map is in the appendix. And it's not ready yet.” 3/
Read 8 tweets
Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Apr 22
"Those who follow the news about the war in Ukraine represent between 57% and 77% of those surveyed in all but three of the 27 countries. The only exceptions are Japan (89%) and Sweden (83%) at one end of the spectrum and Malaysia (49%) at the other." 1/ ipsos.com/en/war-in-ukra…
"27-country average of 82% say that the war in Ukraine poses a great deal or a fair amount of risk to the world as a whole; 61% say that it does to their country. The perception that one’s own country is facing a significant risk is most prevalent in Japan (87%), Poland (77%)" 2/
"Globally, about one-third say it poses at least a fair amount of risk to them personally (36%), their family (34%), and their job or business (37%). Countries whose citizens most tend to feel personally exposed by the war in Ukraine are India (56%), Poland (50%), Japan (53%)" 3/
Read 9 tweets
Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Apr 22
Senior #Russian military official & various politicians openly suggest that Russia plans to seize from #Ukraine not only entire #Donbas but also other regions of Easters & Southern Ukraine & declare them independent or annex to #Russia via referendum. theguardian.com/world/2022/apr…
My research & KMIS survey that I commissioned show that in contrast to #Crimea & #Donbas, only small minorities in other regions of Eastern & Southern #Ukraine, respectively 3% & 5% total, supported their region joining #Russia or independence. washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca…
My article with more detailed survey-based analysis showing marginal support in other regions of Eastern & Southern #Ukraine for their region joining #Russia or independence, in contrast to #Crimea and #Donbass

#Ukraine️war #Ukraina #RussiaUkraineWar researchgate.net/publication/29…
Read 7 tweets
Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Apr 20
Ivan Katchanovski, a Ukrainian political scientist at the University of Ottawa, says that there are neo-Nazi elements in Ukraine, and though they are a tiny proportion of the population, they have played an “outsized role” in political and military affairs csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2…
“That is a gift to Russian propaganda, that these groups were not dealt with before,” says Professor Katchanovski. “Neo-Nazis are a relatively small segment of Ukraine, but the fact that they are integrated in the Ukrainian armed forces and tolerated by Zelenskyy is a problem. 2/
My @csmonitor interview: "These right-wing groups are real enough, but the [Kremlin] claim about Nazis in the Ukrainian government and army as a pretext for this illegal invasion of Ukraine is basically false.” #Ukraine️ #ukrainewar #RussiaUkraineWar #UkraineRussia #Russia 3/
Read 4 tweets
Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Apr 20
"Another poll conducted by the CBS-AXA Center for Sociological Research and Marketing shows that 38.4% [of the Moldova population] finds Russia at fault [for the Russia-Ukraine war], 20.6% blame Ukraine, and 40% refused to answer or do not know." 1/ bne.eu/gagauzia-s-pro…
"The tsars “proclaimed themselves defenders of the Orthodox people in the Balkans,” writes Ivan Katchanovski of the University of Ottawa." #Ukraine #Moldova #Russia 2/ researchgate.net/publication/24…
"Katchanovski writes that Gagauzia was “one of the least educated and [most] impoverished groups during Romanian rule in 1918-40 and 1941-44” and experienced severe discrimination in contrast with Moldovans, who were considered ethnic Romanians."" 3/
Read 4 tweets

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