It's not enough for #Russia to lose its aggressive war.
▶️#Ukraine must win.
It's not enough to win a military victory
🇺🇦needs a viable future.
That must include a clear path to #EU membership.
Here's why🇪🇺should offer that
(& what's getting in the way)
a🧵
It's clear that the immediate priority for #Ukraine is to defeat #Russia & repel its unprovoked invasion.
What defeating #Russia means has been increasingly discussed in recent days - especially after @SecDef's comments on weakening 🇷🇺
theguardian.com/world/2022/apr…
There have been many good interventions on that topic, including from @shashj in discussion with @DrRadchenko
Although the clearest. most concise formulation I've seen came from @shetlerjones
But Ukrainians know its not enough to defeat #Russia
➡️ #Ukraine must WIN
As @ZelenskyyUa has long emphasised, that victory must mean a brighter future for 🇺🇦
Take a minute and a half to watch this incredible video
(the goose bumps kick in from 1:10 ...)
Even in the hectic early days after #Russia's invasion (24/02), securing this hopeful future for #Ukraine has been a top priority for #Zelenskiy & his team who know that a path to #EU membership is essential to their goal. This was 28/02
reuters.com/world/europe/u…
This came on the back of the most encouraging statement ever made on #Ukraine's #EU aspirations.
Meeting the moment on 27/02 @vonderleyen stated loud and clear -
"They belong to us. They are one of us
- and we want them in."
The next day (as soon as #Ukraine submitted its request), the #CEE states took the lead in formally endorsing the candidacy request

president.pl/news/open-lett…
But other, Western European states were less keen - #France, long hostile to enlargement & the #Netherlands quickly made excuses and #Germany remained scrupulously hesitant ...
politico.eu/article/euco-v…
One of the reasons given was that there can't be fast-track membership. #Ukraine had asked for this - but most likely as a negotiating tactic. In fact🇺🇦wants a recognition of CANDIDACY. Ukrainians know that the road to membership will be long - but they need to know they BELONG.
Conflating the two became an excuse to maintain the #EU's longstanding, hesitant embrace of #Ukraine which had kept it at arms length rather than bringing it closer. I wrote more about the other excuses given - & why we should drop them - here: geostrategy.org.uk/britains-world…
Despite the kick in the teeth they gave #Ukraine at Versailles, #EU leaders actually kicked the can down the road - they asked the European Commission to prepare an 'opinion' on 🇺🇦's candidacy. This is standard practice but draws a technical facade over a political decision.
The visit of @Vonderleyen & @JosepBorrellF to #Kyiv to formally deliver the questionnaire on membership
(multiple choice? blue ink only?) was a symbolically important moment, with the Commission President again showing strong support

euronews.com/2022/04/08/urs…
@ZelenskyyUa submitted the completed questionnaire on 18/04 and raised hopes that #Ukraine's #EU candidacy may be endorsed as early as June (this year)
reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Enter #Austria's Foreign minister @a_schallenberg to pour cold water on things.
Schallenberg said that #Ukraine should not be offered #EU candidate status & that the 🇪🇺 should have another form of cooperation with🇺🇦 rather than membership ...

abc.net.au/news/2022-04-2…
He's not alone, but that doesn't make him any less wrong!
E.g. in this piece in @ForeignPolicy, the author argues that rather than real candidacy #Ukraine should get a 'pre-waiting room' waiting room - not really encouraging & nowhere near enough. foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/24/ukr…
so why?
Because the blame for past failures in enlargement is placed entirely on the shortcomings of the accession countries - & is blind to the half-hearted support & betrayed promises of the #EUwhich are also blind to their own failings) - as I show here
foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/07/ukr…
This patronising & chauvinistic view which styles #EU states as paragons of virtue sitting in judgement of e.g. #Ukraine ignores, just for example, #Austria's own democratic problems ...
politico.eu/article/austri…
which predate the current government
politico.eu/article/austri…
and we need not even mention Jörg Haider ...
Nor the continued popular support for far-right candidates in France or the Netherlands' own governance scandals - which led to ... almost the exact same politicians reforming a new government ...
bbc.com/news/world-eur…
What's (perhaps) even worse is that this narrow-minded, hypocritical approach is actually against the EU's interests:🇪🇺 has been at its best when being creative in geopolitics (Single Mkt, Schengen, EU itself) & progressive in its approach to security
ip-quarterly.com/en/integrating…
But its lost its way, increasingly seeing the outside world (including its neighbourhood) as a source of threat rather than of opportunity - something to protect itself from rather than integrate with ...
carnegieeurope.eu/2021/03/08/eu-…
That's led the #EU to forsake its historically successful transformative model in favour of pursuing delusions of hard power adequacy (never gonna happen!) which undercut its real geopolitical contribution. It's also pretty rich for🇪🇺states e.g.🇦🇹to pull the ladder up behind them
Instead, the #EU should be bold & rediscover its purpose in life. It should leave the hard security to #NATO & focus on the transformative, progressive approach - which increases contacts between peoples, firms & states - to everyone's benefit.
Offering #Ukraine real #EU candidacy creates a real incentive for both sides to make sure that reforms are also real this time. Rebooting enlargement gives 🇪🇺 a 'life project' that can meaningfully re-enchant the notion of hopeful futures for Europeans inside & outside the Union.
TLDR: The #EU will benefit from having #Ukraine as a member - if it makes necessary reforms.🇪🇺already benefits from🇺🇦fighting day & night for the values it claims to embody.🇺🇦deserves a brighter future - that's why they must win - & it's how🇪🇺can win too
PS - sorry for the long thread but there's a lot to say on this topic - and important to understand how and why the EU & Ukraines interests are aligned in enlargement - strategic security meets democracy support & values promotion.
carnegieeurope.eu/2022/04/01/ukr…

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More from @bctallis

Apr 29
The now infamous open letter by 'intellectuals & artists' calling on #Germany to stop supporting #Ukraine [&, effectively, for 🇺🇦's capitulation to #Russia] is very revealing. As well as being patronising as hell & totally wrong I think its shows something else too ... 1/ Image
Many of us have been truly inspired by #Ukraine's incredible struggle to survive, but for others it seems that this rare show of courage, & decency and the valiant defence of country, values, rights & ideals is deeply troubling. Why? ...2/
#Emma #Germany
dw.com/en/war-in-ukra…
Because it shines a light on their own unwillingness to do so. It threatens to reveal the deep cowardice, cynicism & selfish will for an easy life (never mind the suffering of others or the lost potential for progress at home) that is all too common ... 3/
#Emma #Germany Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 25
V. interesting ongoing discussion in this event.
Excellent points from @DLidington @RosaBalfour & @GeorginaEWright
some more concerning though:
- alternatives to #EU candidacy for #Ukraine
- over-estimation of #Germany's #zeitenwende & EU role in countering #Putin's aggression
@DLidington particularly compelling on the need for #Russia to lose - anything else will be a defeat for the West - & as on keeping the #US fully involved in European security (and the need for #France & #UK to work together on that & on helping #Germany reach security potential
@GeorginaEWright outlined potential French (public & politicians) objections to #Ukraine's #EU membership aspirations & thus the need to consider alternatives. - something, I strongly challenge here. How to convince 🇫🇷 to embrace 🇺🇦 - its in 🇪🇺 interest!

foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/07/ukr…
Read 4 tweets
Apr 24
#Germany's leaders, especially Chancellor #Scholz seem reluctant to really help #Ukraine-especially by providing #heavyweapons.

(Too) many reasons are given for this, even avoiding #nuclear war, but there's a problem with these excuses for🇺🇦- AND for🇩🇪& its #NATO allies
a🧵
Here's the latest interview with #Scholz in @derspiegel He steers a question about supplying proper weapons to
1) #Germany becoming a party to the war in #Ukraine
2) The danger of a direct confrontation between NATO & Russia
3) WW3 & Nuclear war

spiegel.de/international/…
As you can see from the quotes below
- and despite the best efforts of the journalists -
there's a lot of diversion, deflection & flim-flam going on here ...
The key point seems to be to keep stoking and manipulating fear among #Germany's population
Read 18 tweets
Apr 18
Germany’s response to #Russia’s assault on #Ukraine is an abject disappointment.

Why be so hard on #Germany?
Because:
- Ukraine needs & deserves much better

- We all need a Germany that does much better
(including Germans). A 🧵
#Germany has not unequivocally endorsed #Ukraine's #EU candidacy bid;
- was slow to provide weapons of any kind;
- is dragging its feet over providing #heavyweapons;
- delayed the #EU ban on🇷🇺coal, &
- STILL buys the most🇷🇺gas, giving billions of Euros to #Putin.
This is particularly hard to bear as #Germany COULD do so much more.
A fully engaged Germany COULD make such a difference - as when it boldly accepted millions of refugees - in the 1990s and in 2015.
It believed in its best sides & promised "#wirschaffendas" "we can manage it"
Read 15 tweets
Apr 13
What to do with a problem like #Steinmeier getting refused an invitation to #Kyiv by #Zelenskiy?

A 🧵 on why it's better for #Germany to get proactive instead of getting offended over #Ukraine. Image
Steinmeier being unwelcome in #Kyiv is bad.
I'm not criticising #Zelenskiy's decision (which is justified) but that it came to this is everyone's detriment.
As such, it's an important moment to reflect & consider, why it happened & what to do better. Image
#Steinmeier was not welcomed because of his past closeness to Putin's #Russia. He has publicly regretted this but its clear that for Kyiv apology ≠ atonement. Let's be honest the ill-judged harmony concert & FWS' spox criticism of @MelnykAndrij didn't help, BUT
Read 22 tweets
Apr 12
Some of observations on Heavy #Weapons transfers to #Ukraine
11/🧵:

1. Transferring any and all heavy weapons is good. Especially of types that 🇺🇦 has asked for.

Therefore it’s good that Hweapons are increasingly delivered by many countries
(eg 🇨🇿🇸🇰🇬🇧) & discussed in 🇩🇪.
BUT

2. The endless debates on how long it takes to train crews to use eg Tanks & IFVs are starting to sound like excuses not reasons. Clearly it’s not poss to just climb in & drive off, but 🇩🇪seems to over complicate this, to say the least.
3. Rather than continuing to talk down to #Ukraine, #Germany’s politicians should consider that the 🇩🇪way is not the only way, & may not even be the best way.
Relative recent performance of 🇺🇦&🇩🇪 militaries needs to be considered- as does accelerated learning in wartime.
Read 11 tweets

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