Thread by @bctallis

It's not enough for #Russia to lose its aggressive war.
▶️#Ukraine must win.
It's not enough to win a military victory
🇺🇦needs a viable future.
That must include a clear path to #EU membership.
Here's why🇪🇺should offer that
(& what's getting in the way)
a🧵

It's clear that the immediate priority for #Ukraine is to defeat #Russia & repel its unprovoked invasion.
What defeating #Russia means has been increasingly discussed in recent days - especially after @SecDef's comments on weakening 🇷🇺
theguardian.com/world/2022/apr…

There have been many good interventions on that topic, including from @shashj in discussion with @DrRadchenko

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1519009010246201344?s=20&t=jzCLQoEIBfOhB-TUOVXC7g

Although the clearest. most concise formulation I've seen came from @shetlerjones

https://twitter.com/shetlerjones/status/1519250363362250754?s=20&t=yaGfAUCjGRVtl6W6q3AcEw

But Ukrainians know its not enough to defeat #Russia
➡️ #Ukraine must WIN
As @ZelenskyyUa has long emphasised, that victory must mean a brighter future for 🇺🇦
Take a minute and a half to watch this incredible video
(the goose bumps kick in from 1:10 ...)

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1505563566480498692?s=20&t=6tdBbunn7zzV9oi1FNJucQ

Even in the hectic early days after #Russia's invasion (24/02), securing this hopeful future for #Ukraine has been a top priority for #Zelenskiy & his team who know that a path to #EU membership is essential to their goal. This was 28/02
reuters.com/world/europe/u…

This came on the back of the most encouraging statement ever made on #Ukraine's #EU aspirations.
Meeting the moment on 27/02 @vonderleyen stated loud and clear -
"They belong to us. They are one of us
- and we want them in."

The next day (as soon as #Ukraine submitted its request), the #CEE states took the lead in formally endorsing the candidacy request

president.pl/news/open-lett…

But other, Western European states were less keen - #France, long hostile to enlargement & the #Netherlands quickly made excuses and #Germany remained scrupulously hesitant ...
politico.eu/article/euco-v…

One of the reasons given was that there can't be fast-track membership. #Ukraine had asked for this - but most likely as a negotiating tactic. In fact🇺🇦wants a recognition of CANDIDACY. Ukrainians know that the road to membership will be long - but they need to know they BELONG.

Conflating the two became an excuse to maintain the #EU's longstanding, hesitant embrace of #Ukraine which had kept it at arms length rather than bringing it closer. I wrote more about the other excuses given - & why we should drop them - here: geostrategy.org.uk/britains-world…

Despite the kick in the teeth they gave #Ukraine at Versailles, #EU leaders actually kicked the can down the road - they asked the European Commission to prepare an 'opinion' on 🇺🇦's candidacy. This is standard practice but draws a technical facade over a political decision.

The visit of @Vonderleyen & @JosepBorrellF to #Kyiv to formally deliver the questionnaire on membership
(multiple choice? blue ink only?) was a symbolically important moment, with the Commission President again showing strong support

euronews.com/2022/04/08/urs…

@ZelenskyyUa submitted the completed questionnaire on 18/04 and raised hopes that #Ukraine's #EU candidacy may be endorsed as early as June (this year)
reuters.com/world/europe/u…

Enter #Austria's Foreign minister @a_schallenberg to pour cold water on things.
Schallenberg said that #Ukraine should not be offered #EU candidate status & that the 🇪🇺 should have another form of cooperation with🇺🇦 rather than membership ...

abc.net.au/news/2022-04-2…

He's not alone, but that doesn't make him any less wrong!
E.g. in this piece in @ForeignPolicy, the author argues that rather than real candidacy #Ukraine should get a 'pre-waiting room' waiting room - not really encouraging & nowhere near enough. foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/24/ukr…
so why?

Because the blame for past failures in enlargement is placed entirely on the shortcomings of the accession countries - & is blind to the half-hearted support & betrayed promises of the #EUwhich are also blind to their own failings) - as I show here
foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/07/ukr…

This patronising & chauvinistic view which styles #EU states as paragons of virtue sitting in judgement of e.g. #Ukraine ignores, just for example, #Austria's own democratic problems ...
politico.eu/article/austri…

which predate the current government
politico.eu/article/austri…
and we need not even mention Jörg Haider ...

Nor the continued popular support for far-right candidates in France or the Netherlands' own governance scandals - which led to ... almost the exact same politicians reforming a new government ...
bbc.com/news/world-eur…

What's (perhaps) even worse is that this narrow-minded, hypocritical approach is actually against the EU's interests:🇪🇺 has been at its best when being creative in geopolitics (Single Mkt, Schengen, EU itself) & progressive in its approach to security
ip-quarterly.com/en/integrating…

But its lost its way, increasingly seeing the outside world (including its neighbourhood) as a source of threat rather than of opportunity - something to protect itself from rather than integrate with ...
carnegieeurope.eu/2021/03/08/eu-…

That's led the #EU to forsake its historically successful transformative model in favour of pursuing delusions of hard power adequacy (never gonna happen!) which undercut its real geopolitical contribution. It's also pretty rich for🇪🇺states e.g.🇦🇹to pull the ladder up behind them

Instead, the #EU should be bold & rediscover its purpose in life. It should leave the hard security to #NATO & focus on the transformative, progressive approach - which increases contacts between peoples, firms & states - to everyone's benefit.

Offering #Ukraine real #EU candidacy creates a real incentive for both sides to make sure that reforms are also real this time. Rebooting enlargement gives 🇪🇺 a 'life project' that can meaningfully re-enchant the notion of hopeful futures for Europeans inside & outside the Union.

TLDR: The #EU will benefit from having #Ukraine as a member - if it makes necessary reforms.🇪🇺already benefits from🇺🇦fighting day & night for the values it claims to embody.🇺🇦deserves a brighter future - that's why they must win - & it's how🇪🇺can win too

PS - sorry for the long thread but there's a lot to say on this topic - and important to understand how and why the EU & Ukraines interests are aligned in enlargement - strategic security meets democracy support & values promotion.
carnegieeurope.eu/2022/04/01/ukr…