gano Profile picture
May 23 9 tweets 3 min read
#VoicesfromRussia #USA #China #Ukraine #EU #Russia #Geopolitics

Joseph Biden has confirmed the readiness of the US to go to war with China in the event of its attempt to regain control of Taiwan by force. In other words,
1/
the U.S. confirms its military guarantees to the Taipei regime twice in less than a year (the first time immediately after the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan).
2/
Interestingly, Washington has not given such guarantees to Ukraine, which has been recognised as an independent state. But they are given to Taiwan, which the US itself considers part of China and does not recognise its sovereignty. At first glance this appears
3/
to be a kind of paradox.

But no, there is logic in such decisions. The United States simply views the Pacific Ocean (or even the wider Indo-Pacific region) as the primary theatre of its new geopolitical confrontation. Here, concessions to China,
4/
which is the main rival of the United States, are impossible in principle.

The European dimension, on the other hand, is of secondary importance. Therefore, here guarantees to Ukraine can be denied. On the contrary, its territory
5/
can be used for a proxy war with another competitor - Russia. At the same time solving the problem of weakening the ally-rival - the EU. No one has cancelled the task of reindustrialization of the U.S. at the expense of deindustrialization of the EU.
6/
We can say this: The loss of Taiwan and China's breakthrough into the ocean is perceived by the U.S. as a critical threat. As well as any strengthening of China's position in the Pacific area (hence the nervous reaction to China's attempts to obtain military bases in
7/
the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Kiribati).

As for Ukraine, its loss as an ally does not hurt American interests as much. Therefore, the US is deliberately sacrificing its ally without providing guarantees. Taiwan, on the other hand, is a different story.
8/8

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More from @GanoRalf

May 23
#VoicesfromRussia #Ukraine #Poland #Russia

Under the new Ukrainian draft law, Polish citizens

1) will be able to hold elective office;
2) be appointed to public authorities and to senior positions in defence enterprises;
3) gain access to secret data;
4) be judges;

1/
5) the Polish police will be authorised to monitor law and order

It is understood that administrative functions will be transferred to external specialists. In normal times the Ukrainian bureaucracy would have resisted this, but now, under the wartime law, it is afraid to
2/
throw a spanner in the wheels of the Poles.

What does the bill say? It means that there will be no incorporation of the Ukrainian lands into Poland, what is much talkrd about in Russia. Why? Management is external, revenues can be received, resources can be controlled,
3/
Read 10 tweets
Apr 6
#fascists not only exists in #Ukraine, but also on the Russian side!
1/
#Ukrainian #fascists against #Russian Fascists. The on in this picture is from #русич, a Russian analogy of #Azov
2/
Russia is not free from fascist tendencies, the #UkraineRussianWar + worldwide canceling of Russian culture led to a massive rise in patriotism within Russian civil society. Like the right tried to ride the wave of #COVID19 related protests, the Russian right now tries to ride
3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 5
Questions regarding some photos in #Bucha.
#BuchaGenocide

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
In the images published by Reuters, close-ups of some of the bodies are shown.

One of the photos shows very "fresh" hands: the person was clearly not lying there for two weeks or even
1/
since the 25th.

- The color of the hands is like a living person, but some of the fingers - as if with one hand the deceased had been lying in a puddle for quite some time.
- The bandage is perfectly white, which is rather odd.
- Hands with no swelling or other signs of
2/
binding while alive.
▪️ Jeans in sand, but as if he had been neatly tucked in by sliding his right side forward a bit. The sand on the jeans goes under the jacket, the edge of the jacket is clean and dry. The jacket itself at the left shoulder is torn as if it had been held
3/
Read 20 tweets
Apr 5
Thea coming intensification of economic #Crisis in Europe,
A thread:
#foodcrisis #Economics #EconomicCrisis #UkraineRussiaWar
#wheat
1/
Ukraine faces mass starvation: Kiev authorities deliberately disrupt the sowing campaign

The sowing campaign in Ukraine is on the verge of failure, the agrarians lack seeds and fuel. Only in Odessa region and maybe in the liberated regions of the country (Kherson region and
2/
the south of Zaporozhye region) are fully sown.

In Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv oblasts there is fighting. Fields are mined, demining is not carried out.

In the Poltava region, fields are also mined, the sowing season has not begun.
In the west of Ukraine in
3/
Read 9 tweets
Apr 5
#Gasembargo #EconomicCrisis #LNG #LPG
Refusal of Russian gas - illusions and reality

The recent announcement by Lithuania and other Baltic countries to completely give up Russian gas has gotten a lot of attention in the media field. It is presented as a victory and an
1/
appeal to other EU countries to follow this "successful" example.

In fact, the opposite is true. Almost all the gas in the Baltic States is Russian. But it comes at the expense of reverse gas from Hungary.

Previously, the Ukrainian gas transport system could only work in
2/
the direct direction from Ukraine to Hungary. At the beginning of 2022, the possibility was created to transport gas also by reverse, in both directions. The Hungarian direction became the second physical route of gas supply to Ukraine from Europe after Slovakia.

Since 2015.
3/
Read 15 tweets
Apr 4
What is the actual mood within #Russian society? In this thread I'll collect voices from Russian analysts.

Here we go:
Here's a comment from Igor Dmitriev, a known political analyst from #odessa, #Ukraine:

"The campaign against Russians launched in the West and Ukraine will not have the effect that its initiators expect. Ukrainians have thrown all their creativity into calling for the murder
1/
of Russians, some directly calling for genocide. Other countries introduce discriminatory norms, such as that Russians must apologize or pay a 5 percent surcharge on restaurant bills.

The authors of these initiatives believe that they thus intimidate Russian citizens and
2/
Read 12 tweets

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