Judging by the report to #Putin, yesterday's talks between #Russian Foreign Minister #Lavrov & his Turkish counterpart Çavuşoğlu didn't bring any significant results. They agreed to continue discussing sensitive issues, refraining from harmful to bilateral relations steps 1/9
#Putin was dissatisfied with the result of #Lavrov's visit to #Turkey & talked about the fact that the Turkish side in the negotiation process is seeking tangible concessions to the detriment of #Russian positions. He traditionally gave Lavrov rollicking 2/9
It's important for #Putin to understand the actions of the Turkish leadership & to have close contact with #Erdogan, given the preparation and possible implementation of a geopolitical project in the #Caucasus 3/9
Putin isn't pleased with the "unfriendly" actions of the leadership of #Azerbaijan, #Turkey's closest friend & partner, and believes that #Erdogan is pushing Aliyev to act like this 4/9
By order of #Putin, under the leadership of the Secretary of the #SecurityCouncil of #Russian Nikolai #Patrushev, a plan is being prepared to resume the #Karabakh conflict. The start of implementation is scheduled for early September 5/9
Provocations are supposed to be carried out, drawing #Azerbaijan & #Armenia into a new phase of the conflict. At the same time, the #Russian leadership isn't particularly going to provide military assistance to Armenia, at least direct, manoeuvring in the negotiation field 6/9
#Putin is even fine with a possible #Azerbaijan's victory & #Armenia's loss of part of the territories that it considers its own since it will cause outrage in part of the global community & weaken the positions of Azerbaijan & #Turkey 7/9
At the same time, it will increase tension in #NATO between #Turkey & countries in the bloc that support #Armenia. And if, as a result, the Armenian leadership can be changed to a pro-Russian or a puppet one, then the maximum program will be implemented 8/9
#Putin doesn't need any peace treaties & agreements between #Armenia & #Azerbaijan, he needs control, and #Karabakh is a lever of pressure on both sides. Putin will never release this lever, while he is alive 9/9
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The indefinite deferral of #Putin's press conference is due to his unstable health condition. A week ago, he was preparing to answer questions from #Russians in late June/ early July, but his doctors advised him not to make any lengthy public appearances in the near future 1/4
The latest argument against speaking to the public was an incident after a recent 1,5-hour video call with representatives of the military bloc. After the meeting, #Putin felt a sharp sickness, weakness and dizziness when he tried to get up from the table 2/4
Putin's press conference serves the purpose of staying in "contact" with #Russians. Its format is about 4 hours, but lately, the president has been getting tired much faster 3/4
Finally, #Putin has officially launched the reform of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The idea of reforming the Ministry came to the President long ago, & the peak of discussions and preparations was at the end of last year. We repeatedly wrote about it 1/7
At that time, the reform wasn't launched because #Putin questioned the expediency of such a politically significant event on the eve of the implementation of geopolitical projects. In April, he again began to talk intensely about it, but no real actions were taken 2/7
The problem at the end of last year & in April was also in the shaky positions of Minister Kolokoltsev. #Putin couldn't decide whether to leave him as minister. Now he understands that in the near future the change of the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs can only harm 3/7
#Putin held a meeting via videoconference with the participation of SVR Director Sergei Naryshkin, Foreign Minister Sergei #Lavrov, Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai #Patrushev, FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov and several other people 1/9
Questions of foreign policy were discussed. In particular, #Putin lamented the refusal of the #Chinese comrades to help with the circumvention of sanctions. Initially, Putin had high hopes for Chinese help and had good reason to do so 2/9
The #Chinese leadership, even before the war, made it clear that assistance in circumventing sanctions, if any, would be fast and large-scale. But firstly, no one expected that the war would not go according to plan and #Ukraine would put up fierce and effective resistance 3/9
Last weekend, #Putin discussed with people close to him the concept of a gradual power transition and ways to ensure continuity when the regime leadership changes. The discussions did not remain an empty phrase, and the outlook has become increasingly clear 1/7
To Former #Russian President #Medvedev, despite all his recent efforts to portray himself as the main "hawk", #Putin is going to trivially dump him by offering him the post of ambassador to one of the countries of Southeast Asia 2/7
But before that, #Medvedev will have to play the role of a "scapegoat" and take the responsibility for the falling rating of the United #Russia party at the end of this autumn. By the end of this autumn, according to #Putin's plans, United Russia's rating will drop 3/7
The rivalry between the #Kremlin "towers" is becoming more and more active in the information space. The "rat race" between Chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin and First Deputy Chairman of the Senat Andrei Turchak is a vivid example of this 1/8
Volodin and Turchak are both members of "United #Russia", and although the disagreements between them are not connected to any internal party split, the ruling party will bear the negative consequences of these conflicts, which will not strengthen it 2/8
That's why, #Putin's inner circle has again started talking about the need for a consensual figure for the elites in the leadership of "United #Russia", who would unite and guarantee the current status quo and the continuity of power 3/8
#Putin's decision to facilitate the issuance of Russian passports in #Kherson & #Zaporizhzhya regions of #Ukraine isn't spontaneous. This decision has been on the table for at least 2 months and has been transformed & postponed given the objective situation on the front
1/10
Moreover, #Putin's plans for the annexation of several regions of #Ukraine to #Russia are a resolved matter and these plans are constantly discussed at closed-door meetings in various formats with the participation of the President
2/10
Now the main goal #Putin has set for the military is to reach the admin borders of #Donetsk & #Luhansk regions and, if possible, #Kherson & #Zaporizhzhya regions of Ukraine
3/10