Some of the pieces I've authored / co-authored on #ArtificialIntelligence and #defense & foreign policy in the last couple of years - 🧵

#AI #Military #NATO #policy
November 2020: while still at #NATO, I was working on policy White Papers on #AI and on #autonomous technologies. Those were disseminated to Allied govts for feedback. They were not published, but we released a snapshot of the overall thinking here:

In 2021, I came back to NATO for a while to draft the first version of a more developed #AI #strategy for the Alliance. That work was then negotiated by Allied govts and agreed in Oct 2021.
NATO released a public summary of the Strategy here:

The public release of the Oct 2021 #NATO #AI strategy was a good opportunity to comment, together with @zoemsl, on what it all meant:

In parallel, in late 2021, we produced together with @AmyErtan a book chapter to document at greater length what NATO policy on AI was evolving into.
A pre-print is available here:

Some broader questions on the policy impacts of #AI seemed interesting too. For example, what of AI and #intellectualproperty protection? We wrote a short exploratory piece with @LaurynasADO on this issue in July 2021.

A more distant question that attracted a lot of attention in recent years was competition in the field of technical standards - with #China very much on people's minds.
We put together a few thoughts with @VassilisTheo in August 2021:

The more one zoomed out, the more we seemed to be facing a very particular type of global competition, with AI in a central role, principally between the US and China. Not an arms race, as other authors were also finding, but a race nonetheless.

Zooming back in, with key #NATO decisions to promote #innovation - especially through the #DIANA initiative, this is how I took stock of the situation in March 2022:

What comes next? How will it all come together and mature and become coherent?
These are still open questions.
I have a few ideas, as far as #NATO's role is concerned, in a forthcoming piece.

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More from @EHunterChristie

Jun 25
European govts should not criticise the domestic policy choices of the US or other Eur govts on matters that pertain to the post-1960 "culture wars".
Those issues are not of the same order of criticality as opposition to Putin or Xi.
They also divide us when we need unity.
These issues include, among others:
Death penalty
Gender politics
Every Western country has deeply divided public opinions on these matters. If that is not visible to you in your country, you live in a bubble.
The true essentials are Democracy and Rule of Law.
If a fellow Western nation has a rules-based system that is democratically well supported and that yields, say, a justice system you find too lax, or on the contrary too strict - suck it up.
Respect your ally's differences.
Read 6 tweets
Jun 23
In May I posited a theory called "Reverse Game of Chicken" on #Germany's arms supplies to #Ukraine. One group member construes fake rules to justify doing less.
Official confirmation today from GER DefMin that the theory is correct: GER will *not* supply Marder IFVs.
Note choice of words of GER DefMin.
GER will not deliver any Marder "Panzer" to UA, claiming (falsely) other countries have not done so and "we're not doing a German go-it-alone".
Of course the GER DefMin's logic is nonsense, but it fits my theory.

The Marders are IFVs.
DefMin Lambrecht is lying when she claims other countries are not supplying "Panzer" (in this case IFVs).
NATO Ally Slovenia has supplied IFVs (see below).
And we all know Poland supplied plenty of MBTs.

Read 5 tweets
Jun 19
Agree with @iquardt's critique of Germany's "change through trade" policy, but the biggest failure was that the policy was pursued unconditionally. You cannot get change through trade if trade never responds to negative change.
15 missed opportunities over 2004-2021 🧵
Selected pivotal instances of negative RUS change that had no effect on West / GER trade policy:

1- Putin cheats at the Presidential election of 2004: we knew it, we self-censored, business-as-usual
2- Putin cheats again in the 2007 legislative elections: same non-response

3- December 2007: Russia suspends participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty - an important arms control treaty. Under-reported at the time, guess what happens the following year. Any response in terms of trade & investment? No.
Read 16 tweets
Jun 18
As #Finland grapples with the #Erdogan challenge to its #NATO aspirations, pointed questions are being asked. Glad to have been interviewed in the preparation of this opinion piece about whether NATO accession supports democratic reforms.

I consider there's a strong case for viewing NATO accession *alone* as a significant pull factor supporting democracy & rule of law reforms for Spain in the 1980s and for the first wave of CEE Allies in the 1990s, in that NATO accession predated EU accession in those cases.
CEE Allies who joined later experienced the NATO and EU pull factors in closer succession or simultaneously, so the NATO pull factor is harder to isolate from the EU pull factor.
That said, what happens after joining?
Read 5 tweets
Jun 18
Recently had exchanges with some foreign policy analysts from a Western European country - I won't specify further. I was struck by a certain degree of short-sighted cynicism regarding Russia and Ukraine. Obviously Kissinger was quoted.
There was no mention of the fact that RUS violations of International Law are very grave. No understanding that such violations, if not severely punished, could present Europe with further danger in future.
At a deeper level, I would also say the individuals concerned had no understanding of what a military alliance is all about - and I mean NATO here in particular. I had to spell it out, and I will do so here too.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 15
Press briefing: US Def Sec #Austin and Gen. #Milley after the 3rd #Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Brussels.
Selected points: (note, this is *not* a NATO meeting. It's an ad hoc group, that has now grown to 50 countries.)
DefSec Austin:
Fact we have 50 countries pledging mil aid to #Ukraine testament to how RUS unprovoked invasion has horrified and galvanised the world, and testament to #heroism of Ukrainian people
DefSec Austin:
In May, US #Congress approved 40 bn USD in assistance to UA. On 1 June, POTUS auth. further 700 mill USD mil package incl #HIMARS rocket system and guided munitions, plus #Javelins, helicopters, counter-battery radars and ammunition.
Read 17 tweets

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