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Jul 11 7 tweets 7 min read
Today is #WorldPopulationDay, which reminds us that while #ElonMusk is determined to contribute to increasing the population, he has also managed to upset the existing one, by backing out of the Twitter deal. Good thing that the markets were more stable, than Musk’s mood. 1/7
Talking about the “impending recession” seems to be the trend. So, it was a surprise last week, when both the #Sensex & the #Nifty went ↑ by almost 3%. Potential reasons? Maybe the cooldown in the prices of #commodities. This helps sectors like #Auto, #Realty, & #FMCG. 2/7
So naturally, both the #NiftyFMCG & #NiftyRealty were ↑ over 5%. #NiftyAuto was also ↑ 3.5%. In fact, every sectoral index was painting the town green. Global indices were also mostly up. The S&P 500 was ↑ 1.94% & the #NASDAQ100 ↑ by 4.6%. 3/7
Reason being, that there was optimism on meeting #inflation expectations which may mean that the #USFed will be less aggressive, on #ratehikes. The #FTSE100 though, was ↓ 2.8%, thanks to #recession fears. 4/7
Interestingly, the potential recession has spooked commodity prices, like metal & oil, and caused a reduction in them. In fact, the earlier rise in commodity prices is expected to reverse. This is obviously good news for the import-dependent #Indianeconomy. 5/7
Why does this matter? #India in recent weeks is facing the spectre of a depreciating #Rupee. #RBI released a slew of measures to control the fall. A falling rupee makes #imports expensive for India. So any fall in commodity prices is welcome. 6/7
Uncertainty remains a concern as evidenced by the strong #dollar index. #Volatility and #geopolitical tensions will play their part in the market story. For you, as an investor though, holding your #equity investments in place is a better option than fearful selling. 7/7

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More from @scripbox

Jul 13
While the pictures from the #WebbSpace Telescope have transfixed everyone with an interest in outer space, back on planet earth, investors are fixated on #recession. We looked at the history of recessions and found some interesting facts. Here’s the lowdown: 1/7
There have been 12 official recessions. On an average, they happen about every 6.5 years. The average period of #recession lasts about 10 months. But the ones in 1973, 1981, & 2007 lasted for well over a year. 2/7
Before the #pandemic, the deepest recessions that saw #GDP decline by more than 3%, started in 1957 (tightening of monetary policy), 1973 (stagflation, oil embargo) and 2007 (global financial crisis). 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Jul 12
As the world watches the Twitter vs #ElonMusk saga unfold, and questions, “What is happening?”, let’s take look at a question that’s been on many investors’ minds for a while - “What does #assetallocation actually mean, and why should I care?” (1/6)
The short answer (within 280 characters), is that asset allocation divides your investments across different asset classes like #equity, debt, #gold etc., in order to achieve a specific investment goal, at a certain growth rate. (2/6)
Why is this necessary? For starters, it ensures that you stay invested for the duration needed, while also helping you decide how much you should invest in sub-asset classes like #large-cap or #mid-cap equity, low duration funds or liquid funds. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
Jul 12
Many investors are wondering if they should shift their #equitymutualfund SIPs to debt investment options, as they watch the markets stew in #volatility. Well, we crunched some numbers and here’s what we think: (1/5)
Shifting #SIP investments to debt products temporarily provides capital protection, but also results in poor yields. You might end up with a smaller corpus, if you follow this strategy. (2/5)
On the other hand, persisting with equity mutual fund SIPs, even if markets are down, pays off over the long term. So far, market growth after dips tends to make up for the crashes. (3/5)
Read 6 tweets
Mar 30
For a quarter now, #FIIs have been taking quite a bit of money out from the Indian markets. But how significant is this retreat in the larger scheme of things? How bad is it? Our research team decided to dig deeper and they did find some gold. Read on.
The FIIs have withdrawn about ₹1.05 Lakh Cr from India till date. That’s a massive amount. But the question is, how much is still invested in #India? The answer is a whopping ₹44.5 Lakh Cr. Compared to last year, there was actually a gross addition of ₹3.3 Lakh Cr. (2/6)
Not looking like a doomsday situation after all. Here’s something to note about how FII holding has changed over the last year - the biggest drop is in banks where the holding dropped from 20.4% to 17.3%. They also dropped their holdings in financial services. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
Mar 29
The #financialyear is coming to an end, which means it’s appraisal time. As we assess how we did last year as a wealth manager, here’s a report card of how the Scripbox recommended basket of #mutualfunds performed. A thread. (1/8)
Within our recommended basket of #equity funds, a few have outperformed the benchmark across time periods, while a few funds have admittedly underperformed, based on the benchmark. Let’s dig in deeper: (2/8)
We strongly believe that investments should be evaluated from a long-term perspective, and with a focus on wealth creation. The most important factor at work? Time. Hence the question, “How has the Scripbox recommended basket of equity funds performed over the years?” (3/8)
Read 8 tweets
Mar 28
It’s Monday and while we might have all woken up today feeling like #ChrisRock after the #Oscars the markets lacked a punch last week. Both the #Sensex and #Nifty remained unchanged and saw a fall of less than 1%, to close at 57,632 pts & 17,173 pts respectively. (1/5)
#NiftyMetal and #Energy indices were the outliers and saw a jump of 5.1% and 2.1% respectively. Not terribly surprising considering wars, high commodity prices and global uncertainty. The S&P 500 and #NASDAQ had a good week and closed at 1.8% & 2.3% ↑ respectively. (2/5)
The #Nikkei was 4.9% ↑. It’s been making significant recoveries after falling to its lowest point in a year, on 9th March. In India, #Commodity prices are up, #Energy prices are up, and soon the RBI may not have any option but to take #InterestRates up. (3/5)
Read 5 tweets

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