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Jul 24 • 5 tweets • 7 min read
1) The #Uranium #mining #stocks #investing thesis in a nutshell🥜🧵 is that after Fukushima the price of #U3O8 sank, new mine projects were cancelled, many mines closed, investment dropped 💰⤵️ as investors thought "#Nuclear #energy is dying"🪦 but they were wrong!✖️😯 .../2👇
2) #Nuclear #energy has actually been growing steadily over past decade so that #Uranium demand today is back where it was before Fukushima.🌞⚛️🏗️↗️ A #Nuclear renaissance has been quietly underway for years but few have noticed🤷 and it's set to grow for years to come! .../3👇
3) Rising #Nuclear demand🌞⚛️🏗️⤴️ as #Uranium supplies declined⛏️⤵️ has led to a massive mined supply deficit⏬ estimated earlier this year by industry consultants at ~65M lbs #U3O8 in 2022, partially offset by ~20M lbs of Secondary Supply from other non-mined sources.⛏️.../4👇
4) But bringing idled & new large #Uranium mines into production will take far higher #U3O8 prices than those we see today, especially as inflation raises the bar to $80+/lb for enough mine production to fix the deficit.💰⬆️⛏️ Meanwhile, operating mines are in decline.↘️🗜️.../5👇
5) Then Russia invaded Ukraine🪖 in the midst of a global resurgence in demand for #Nuclear to urgently achieve #NetZero.🌞⚛️ #Uranium supply has been disrupted⛏️⤵️ while nations pivot to keep & add more reactors.🏗️⤴️ See this thread for more details.🧵👇

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More from @quakes99

John Quakes Profile picture
Jun 19
1/14)#Uranium #mining #stocks have been thrashed by global market meltdown⏬ but U #investing thesis👨‍🏫 is most bullish in 4 decades!🤠🐂 This🧵will bring U up to speed🏇 on how a record U supply deficit⤵️⛏️ is colliding💥 with a global #Nuclear #Energy Renaissance⤴️🌞🏗️⚛️ 🌊🏄‍♀️👇2
2)Entering 2022, #Nuclear fuel consultants UxC & TradeTech estimated 200M lbs of #Uranium demand versus just 135M lbs of mined supply🔀 for a ~65M lbs primary deficit.↕️ #Nuclear utilities are drawing down inventory & relying on ~20M lbs of Secondary Supply to fill the gap.⛏️👇3
3)But then #Russia invaded #Ukraine🪖 turning global #Nuclear fuel market on its head.🙃 Russia's 39% of global enriched #Uranium, 27% conversion & 14% of mined U supply have been disrupted by US & EU sanctions, shipping bans & self-sanctioning by western utilities🇷🇺⚛️⛏️⛔️🇺🇸🇪🇺👇4
Read 14 tweets
John Quakes Profile picture
Jun 12
1/19) #Uranium - a Tutorial👨‍🏫 walking U thru the #Nuclear fuel cycle, what it is, the stages & issues involved, so U can understand the term that has every Uranium investor smacking their lips today: Overfeeding!😋 Here's a thread that I hope gives U some key insights.🌞⚛️⛏️🧵👇2
2) #Uranium is a very different fuel than #coal & #gas that are burned "as is" in #electricity power plants.🏭⚡️ #Nuclear reactor fuel needs to be specially processed & then loaded into fuel rods that are then loaded into reactors to generate #CarbonFree electricity.🌞⚛️⚡️👇3
3) Mined #Uranium⛏️ is processed into drums of Yellow Cake #U3O8🛢️ that in the west are shipped🚢🚛 to plants in Canada, US & France for "Conversion" into a new form called #UF6 which is then shipped in cylinders🚛 to plants in US & Europe for "Enrichment" into reactor fuel.⚛️👇4
Read 19 tweets
John Quakes Profile picture
May 8
1)The #Uranium #mining #stocks #investing thesis👨‍🏫 in May 2022 is now the most bullish it's been in 4 decades!🤠🐂 Here's a thread to bring you up to speed🏇 on how a record Uranium supply deficit⤵️⛏️ is colliding💥 with a global #Nuclear #Energy Renaissance.⤴️🌞🏗️⚛️ 🌊🏄‍♀️🧵4U👇2 Image
2)Entering 2022, #Nuclear fuel consultants UxC & TradeTech estimated 200M lbs of #Uranium demand versus only 135M lbs of mined supply for a ~65M lbs deficit for many years to come.↕️ #Nuclear utilities draw down inventory & rely on ~25M lbs of Secondary Supply to fill gap⛏️👇3 ImageImage
3)Then to make matters worse, #Russia invaded #Ukraine🪖 turning the #Nuclear fuel market on its head.🙃 Russia's 39% of global enriched #Uranium, 27% conversion & 14% of mined U supply are a target of emerging US & EU import bans & self-sanctioning by western utilities🇷🇺⛏️⛔️👇4 Image
Read 13 tweets
John Quakes Profile picture
Apr 24
1/10) Prior to last week's #Uranium sector retreat😱 #Nuclear fuel consultants UxC & TradeTech forecasted deep multi-year U supply deficits with 200M lbs demand vs 135M lbs mined #U3O8 supply + 25M lbs of Secondary Supply that will be dropping due to pivot from #Russia⚠️ A🧵4U👇2
2) World #Nuclear Association was reporting 439 operable reactors (392 GW) + 56 more under construction (62GW)⚛️🏗️ with 26 expected to come online this year & next.⚡️🌞 96 more in advanced planning/ordered + 325 proposed🧾 for projected +2.6%/yr growth rate↗️🏗️🤠🐂 #Uranium🧵👇3
3) On Monday #Pakistan announced that a new 1100MW 'Hualong One' #Nuclear reactor built with #China had begun commercial operation⚛️⚡️ which will consume circa 0.5Million lbs of #U3O8 #Uranium per year delivering #CarbonFree #electricity for the next 60+ years.🌞🇵🇰⛏️🤠🐂 🧵👇4
Read 10 tweets
John Quakes Profile picture
Apr 5
Why has a Western pivot away from #Russia's #Uranium🇷🇺⚛️⛏️⛔️ triggered a chain reaction💥 of higher prices down the #Nuclear fuel cycle from enrichment SWU to conversion?🚀 Let me try to explain in a thread that lays out why #U3O8 & U #stocks are dominoes next in line.⏸️↗️➡️👇2
2) Both #USA & #EU rely on importing #Russia's #Uranium to provide about 20% of annual #Nuclear fuel requirements for their fleets of reactors, the 2 largest fleets in the world.⚛️ Reactor operators are now trying to lock in alternate fuel supply ASAP to fill that 20% gap.🛒 👇3
3) Majority of US/EU imports of #Russia's #uranium is in Enriched Uranium(EUP) with Russia having 43% of global enrichment capacity.🇷🇺 Utilities' first line of attack is to line up alternate enrichment, launching a steep rise in demand & price for enrichment SWU & UF6 feed.⬆️👇4
Read 9 tweets
John Quakes Profile picture
Mar 19
1) I see @BambroughKevin is saying we could see #Uranium prices skyrocket "2x-3x in just a couple of weeks as #USA is poised to ban Russian uranium".🤯 While impossible to accurately predict "how high"🌜🪐 here's a thread on why U prices would spike on a US/EU or Russian ban.👇2
2) Both #USA & #EU rely on importing #Russia's #Uranium to provide about 20% of annual #Nuclear fuel requirements for their fleets of reactors, the 2 largest fleets in the world.⚛️ A ban would force operators to find alternate sources ASAP to fill the resulting supply gap.🛒 👇3
3) Majority of US/EU imports of #Russia's #uranium is in Enriched Uranium(EUP) with Russia having 43% of global enrichment capacity.🇷🇺 If US/EU (or Russia) were to ban imports then first impact, I think, would be steep price rise for EUP, enrichment SWU & UF6 enricher feed.⬆️👇4
Read 9 tweets

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