Some thoughts about the #Turkey membership in #NATO, its relationship with The West and the prospect of how it might going forwards.
Especially considering the problems with The West over #Russia, #Finland and #Sweden.
With #Erdogan in power, it is similar to #Russia's #Putin and his #Russia. #Turkiye got a leader that is only seeking the best results for his people. At the beginning the best development of Turkiye might have been a close relationship with The West. Yes.
But the circumstances changed.
The first very heavy and deep blow in the relationship was the coup, that took place against #Erdogan, that was staged by #NATO. Erdoğan was saved by #Russia|n information, that he got several hours in advance. It was the first and major trigger
to change #Turkiye's alignment away from #NATO. In fact it was the trigger to start negotiations with #Russia about future policies and economical alignment.
Here we come to the second major trigger for Turkiye's realignment to the #BRICS project.
BRICS is the new economic
system of the world, that is set to replace "The West" colonial project. #Erdogan most likely was introduced in the prospect of the future development without The West and saw the writings on the wall... He saw, that #BRICS (The rest of the world without The West) will take
over the global leadership and reimplement the "Law based world order", based on #UN principles.
He saw, that in the middle term "The West" (as opposed to Western nations) will go down, and all that are connected to its economy, as well.
Of course no nation wants to be the first to break openly with "The West" since it would be sanctioned or bombed into oblivion. One nation needed to sacrifice itself, strong enough to withstand the following Western shitstorm. #Russia did.
Now the stone is rolling and the rest
will follow step by step, as we see. First the strong nations (#BRICS) then the rest.
#Erdogan looks to secure the best transition for #Turkiye into the post West world. He will try, as many other nations (#Serbia) as well, to play both cards as long as possible.
I personally expect #Erdogan and its #Turkiye to stay as long as possible in #NATO. Just to have all advantages at the one hand and huge leverages, for shaping (NATO expansion bullshit) the new World in the other hand. He will either be removed from NATO, since he is in fact
already part of the "New World", or he will stay in #NATO until it collapses (within the next 3-4 years, for sure).
In fact #Turkiye stood in NATO just to weaken it, and as one of many vectors to put an end to NATO, planed by #Russia and #China.

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More from @YugoSurfer

Aug 11
With this thread I want to adress the question, why #Russia is winning, even though she hasn't got the frequently quoted 3:1 advantage in troops. Moreover I want to describe the Russian military strategy a little deeper.
#Ukraine #Donbass #Kiev
This quote, of course, might be right. I know a few military books, where it is described like this.
But! This quote only applies, when two peer opponents fighting each other with similar quantitative and qualitative resources and possibilities.
#Ukraine #Donbass #Kiev
#Russia and #Ukraine aren't peer enemies. Considering the land army, they are similar, but Ukraine has a massive disadvantage on the possibility to supply its troops with spare parts and ammunition. Yes, there were storages, but since Russia took out the industrial potential
Read 26 tweets
Jul 29
Since many people asking why the (#US) United States would be interested in de-industrialize #Europe, I just decided, to explain it.
Europe, United states and all other Western states expanded its market access, since the collapse of the Soviet Union,
dramatically, all over the world. Those Western countries were producing goods for the whole world and hindered those "customer" countries to build up an own reliable economy and industry.
#economics #Russia #US #EU #Europe
They were producing with cheap resources and labor from third world, and developing countries (#BRICS). Moreover did they transfer whole industries to these countries, to produce even cheaper and more efficient. By exploiting these countries for their resources,
Read 16 tweets
Jul 27
People asking all the time, why #Russia isn't telling straight forwardly, that the reduction of #gas flows to #Europe is a counter sanction. It annoys me as well, that they don't communicate it straight "in their face" that they are being recked currently. Well...
Russia can't do that currently.
Because #Russia needs to be a reliable partner for the emerging new order and the (now overtaking) global south.
#Ukraine #BRICS #Europe #EU
Russia wouldn't be in the best position internationally (global south), if claiming that it wants to fight such behavior, but on the other hand is applying it on its own.

That's why I expect some more ridicules and awkward games, until #Russia can eventually fully cease #gas
Read 4 tweets
Jul 27
I want to add some more details about the potential reshaping of European alliances and territories.
Moreover I want to address the question about how #Serbia and #Hungary could survive opposing Western orders.
#Russia #Ukraine #Kiev #Donbass
I was asking myself for some time, since the beginning of the #SMO, how does #Orban, from #Hungary, and #Vucic, from #Serbia, openly withstand the Western pressure, to comply. Why was I curious?
- They can't withstand The West militarily.
- They would be sanctioned to death.
- They are landlocked with hostile #NATO countries (I know, that #Hungary IS NATO)
Under such circumstances you can NOT afford, to not follow Western orders.
How can they do it then?
If we take a look at the map, then I think we can see the answer. See my attached map. Image
Read 8 tweets
Jul 25
With this thread I want to re-explain in short, why #Russia is making little gains these days in #Ukraine. Especially amidst the steady reporting of the Western #MSM and various Western "intelligence" (propaganda) reports, that Russia's offensive is stalling.
Of course I explained it in detail in my previous threads, which you can read as well.
See here.
The reason, why I decided to re-write it, is a conversation, that I had recently with some smart Western business and academic partners.
They are actually smart people, but when it comes down to #Ukraine, they reiterate 1:1 the #MSM content. #Russia is done, Russia will collapse, Russia lost a million men, Russia doesn't gain any ground anymore, etc. etc. etc.
So feel free to share my thread with such people :)
Read 20 tweets
Jul 8
Today I want to address the question about, how the #Russia|n troops were prepared for this conflict and how the preparations may look going forwards.
Especially against the background of the accusations, that the Russian troops were badly prepared and that #Ukraine will
prepare a large army this year and start a large scale counter offensive against #Russia|n troops.
First of all, I can only offer my assumptions, I do NOT have deep insights.
Part 1 --> Russian troops were badly prepared:
Here we have a fundamental problem. When the invasion
were prepared from January 2021, going forward, I'm sure, the soldiers were NOT informed about the actual invasion plans. And that makes absolutely sense.
Here is why:
It is more likely, that soldiers leak information, then general staff members.
#Ukraine #Russia #Donbass
Read 25 tweets

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