1) Chang: #China Is Preparing To Go To War

Absolutely correct! Quiet preparations for imminent war have been ongoing for a few months.

The audio leak of a top-secret meeting of the #PLA in May had clearly revealed that China plans to attack #Taiwan soon.
zerohedge.com/geopolitical/c…
2) Explosive audio leak details #China’s plan to invade #Taiwan

The meeting steered by the hybrid leadership of the Guangdong Military Region reveals that during the operation against Taiwan, China will have to safeguard the Pearl River Delta area.
indianarrative.com/world-news/exp…
3) If #China does indeed attack #Taiwan soon, October is the likely time since the Taiwan Strait waters will be calm, facilitating amphibious operations.

The drills around Taiwan allowed China to build up forces in Fujian, which is part of what's needed before an invasion.

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More from @IndoPac_Info

Aug 4
#THREAD: 1) It seems to me that #China has chosen a phased approach of limited military measures to squeeze #Taiwan here & there, on & off, pressure & release tactics, coupled with long term economic retaliation.

Southern Okinawa Japanese islands are also in China's crosshairs. Image
2) Here, the Global Times talks about #PLA military drill areas becoming a threat to #Taiwan's ports & shipping lanes, forming a blockade as a step to achieve reunification by force in the future.

Also a good way to test a US response.

3) This would be a calibrated approach, designed to hurt enough, but not too much that can trigger a war or US intervention.

But...... If Taiwan fires on Chinese forces to stop the blockade, then China has the excuse to go with full force, or could take small Taiwanese islands. Image
Read 6 tweets
Aug 1
THREAD: 1) With His Weak Response to #China’s Threats, Biden May Just Have thrown #Taiwan under the Bus

Biden worked behind the scenes to stop Pelosi from visiting Taiwan.

Biden also seemed to sacrifice Taiwan’s defence on a phone call with Xi Jinping.
msn.com/en-in/news/opi…
2) In a a long phone call over 2 hours, a White House statement said that Biden “underscored that the United States policy has not changed and that the US strongly opposes unilateral efforts to change the status quo or undermine peace & stability across the Taiwan Strait”
3) According to the statement, Xi emphasised the Chinese claim over the island. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated, “Those who play with fire will perish by it.” The Ministry added, “It is hoped that the US will be clear-eyed about this.”
Read 4 tweets
Mar 8
1/ #Ukrainian Nationalist Volunteers Committing 'ISIS-Style' War Crimes: Amnesty International

Right-wing Ukrainian ultra nationalists are committing war crimes in rebel-held territories of Eastern #Ukraine, evidence of militias beheading their victims.
newsweek.com/evidence-war-c…
2/ Armed volunteers who refer to themselves as the Aidar battalion "have been involved in widespread abuses, including abductions, unlawful detention, ill-treatment, theft, extortion, and possible executions", Amnesty said.
3/ Kiev-based Pravilnoe TV reported that it had spoken with one of the mothers who confirmed her son was a rebel, captured during fighting in Donetsk.

She said she had received her son's head in a wooden box in the post, blaming nationalist volunteers for her son's death.
Read 29 tweets
Mar 7
1/ #Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 11:

It's likely #Russian forces will renew offensive operations in the next 24-48 hours with emphasis on continuing to encircle #Kyiv, attacking west of #Kharkiv & capturing #Mariupol. Via @JominiW

#Russia #Ukraine #Donbass
#UkraineRussiaWar
2/ Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart.

Key take away, both #Russian & #Ukrainian forces conducted limited probes throughout NW Kyiv.

Russian forces seem to be increasing targeting of known civilian exit routes, most likely to degrade morale. #KyivNow Via @JominiW
3/ Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart.

Key take away, #Russian forces are bringing thermobaric MLRSs to the Chernihiv area.

The Russian are also concentrating forces to east of #Kyiv. It's possible the #Ukrainians may counterattack east of Kyiv. Via @JominiW
Read 4 tweets
Mar 7
1/ How to interpret #Putin’s nuclear war threats

If #Russia's economy collapses & #Ukraine war fails, a limited nuclear strike to demonstrate resolve is not inconceivable.

I'd say very likely. Analysts & diplomats with good links to #Putin are worried.
asiatimes.com/2022/03/how-to…
2/ By alluding to a disproportionate nuclear escalation, Moscow wants to limit (or even reverse) western interference in Ukraine, in order to make the Russian war effort more sustainable. The West’s most powerful weapon at present is sanctions rather than military intervention.
3/ This carries its own risks. If such measures were really to cause the near-term “collapse of the Russian economy” & threaten the survival of the domestic order, the Russian elite might come to perceive that existential threat as making victory vital in Ukraine, at all costs.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 26
#Russian 2S4 Tyulpan 240mm heavy mortars and 2S7M Malka 203mm heavy artilleries on the move in Belgorod.
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
#UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaCrisis #RussianArmy
2/n
The "Z" markers denote they are heading to #Ukraine
- via @RALee85
#UkraineRussiaConflict #UkraineWar #UkraineInvasion
3/n
#Russian communication trucks South of Belgorod followed by a series of civilian vehicles that also have Z painted on the side, the white vans have no license plates.
-via @fpleitgenCNN
#UkraineWar #UkraineUnderAttack #RussiaUkraine #RussiaUkraineCrisis
Read 5 tweets

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