Kyle Orton Profile picture
Aug 22 36 tweets 20 min read
Thread: 22 August 2022: Day 180 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update focuses on the problems #Russia is having mobilising and motivating its "auxiliary forces", i.e. the #Ukrainians in the occupied territories like the Donbas. Moscow is trying terror and inducement (money), but the forces remain unreliable for offensives.
Thread on the "Wagner" unit, an instrument of #Russia's state, often wrongly referred to as a "mercenary" outfit.
Is this ... meant to be a criticism?
Credit to #Germany's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock realising there is no path to peace that doesn't involve arming #Ukraine.
You can write to political prisoners in #Belarus. It not only tells the victims but their oppressors that they have not been forgotten.
A daytime HIMARS strike by #Ukraine on the Antonovsky bridge in #Russian-occupied Kherson.
#Ukraine joining its direct warfare on #Russia's rear base in #Crimea with political/psychological warfare
#Russia has claimed that #Ukraine was responsible for the killing of Aleksandr Dugin's daugher in Moscow - @AFP
#Turkey doubles #Russian oil imports, filling #EU void reuters.com/business/energ…
An entirely spontaneous pro-#Russia protest by #Ukrainians in Kupyansk in the Kharkiv Oblast.
#Lithuania has, like all the Baltic states, performed wonderfully in #Ukraine.
#Ukraine's commander-in-chief Valeriy Zaluzhny says "nearly 9,000" soldiers have been killed since #Russia's invasion began, a rare public acknowledgement of the casualty stats on the Ukrainian side. english.alarabiya.net/News/world/202…
Naturally, #Russia has fabricated "evidence" that the organiser of the bombing in Moscow that killed Dugin's daughter was a member of the Azov Regiment.
The Russian Imperial Movement, which forms part of #Russia's invasion force in #Ukraine, is a designated terrorist organisation.
Reports that #Russia is removing its air force assets from #Crimea.
Another triumphant day for #Russian messaging
I spoke too soon, Russia had not yet peaked in its messaging for the day
On a scale of 1 to 10, the convincingness of #Russia's story about #Ukraine being responsible for killing Dugin's daughter is in Salisbury spire territory.
An adviser to #Ukraine's President Zelensky says #Russia's propaganda "lives in a fictional world" (which is true) and "vipers in [Russia's] special services" are behind the assassination of Dugin's daughter (which is also probably true).
Seems there has been another explosion in #Crimea
Horrendous #Russian assault on Marinka, near the red Ukrainian Orthodox Church in the Donetsk Oblast.
#Ukraine's President Zelensky spoke tonight about #Russia's senseless missile attacks on civilian targets in Kharkiv.
Vladimir Solovyev shows how little respect #Russia has for #Germany and its Chancellor, Olaf Scholz. All the concessions only increase Moscow's contempt.
#Hungary's government cultivating pro-#Russia sentiment at a popular level
#Russia moving to eliminate the Jewish Agency, and nothing #Israel has done to avoid directly confronting the Kremlin since the invasion of #Ukraine has been enough to prevent this.
U.S. rejects Ukraine demand of blanket visa ban on Russians reuters.com/world/us-rejec…
The passport accompanying #Russia's official story of the assassination of Dugin's daughter isn't up to much
#EU announces the same day as the #US no blanket ban on issuing visas to #Russia's citizens

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More from @KyleWOrton

Aug 21
Thread: 21 August 2022: Day 179 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
To follow up on the assassination of Aleksandr Dugin's daughter last night: the balance of probability for an assassination in Moscow is always the Russian FSB, possibly with the involvement of organised crime, not the Ukrainian SBU.
#pt: It is not *impossible* to construct a motive for the Ukrainian SBU trying to assassinate Dugin, but the SBU knows what apparently most Westerners do not: that Dugin is not a domestic power player, politically or ideologically, in the Kremlin.
Read 20 tweets
Aug 20
Thread: 20 August 2022: Day 178 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: "only minimal changes" along the front line in the Donbas over "the last week", after some minor #Russian advances in early August. #Ukraine moving on Kherson, increasingly frequent strikes behind the lines in the south are "stressing Russian logistics".
Credit to #France's President Macron for this: strongly preparing the French population for a rough winter, necessary to defend their security and values.
Read 38 tweets
Aug 19
Thread: 19 August 2022: Day 177 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
A lot of trepidation in the next hours: #Russia gives every indication of planning something awful at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant today.
A video "surfaced", as they say, yesterday, showing #Finland's Prime Minister, Marin Sanna, partying a few weeks ago in an evening she described as "pretty wild". This has caused some domestic criticism, but difficult to imagine this doing her any serious harm.
Read 26 tweets
Aug 18
Thread: 18 August 2022: Day 176 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia has had "heavy attrition" of its tanks because of a "culture of poor" work with Explosive Reactive Armour (ERA) that "dates back to the First Chechen War in 1994". Failing to "enforce low-level battle discipline" of this kind has marked the war.
#pt: The Russian army, despite the so-called "modernisation", has precious little progress to show from nearly 30 years ago in Chechnya.
Read 42 tweets
Aug 17
Thread: 17 August 2022: Day 175 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: notes the explosions on 16 August in Dzhankoi, home to one of two "most important Russian airfields in #Crimea" and "a key road and rail junction" supplying Russian forces in southern #Ukraine. "The cause ... is not yet clear" 😶
#Russia's state media is upset at the "repressions" of Donald Trump. In a strange segment, Vladimir Solovyov even wondered if "Teflon Don" might not be "[declared] a Russian spy" and if so would #Russia do a prisoner exchange "to bring Trump to Russia?". thedailybeast.com/russian-state-…
Read 31 tweets
Aug 16
Thread: 16 August 2022: Day 174 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia's Black Sea Fleet is having to pursue an "extremely defensive posture", keeping vessels close to the Crimean coast after the loss of the flagship MOSKVA, a "significant proportion" of naval combat jets, and Snaks Island. Odesa out of reach. Image
More Nazis involved in Putin's denazification army
Read 37 tweets

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