Thread: 22 August 2022: Day 180 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update focuses on the problems #Russia is having mobilising and motivating its "auxiliary forces", i.e. the #Ukrainians in the occupied territories like the Donbas. Moscow is trying terror and inducement (money), but the forces remain unreliable for offensives.
Thread on the "Wagner" unit, an instrument of #Russia's state, often wrongly referred to as a "mercenary" outfit.
#Ukraine's commander-in-chief Valeriy Zaluzhny says "nearly 9,000" soldiers have been killed since #Russia's invasion began, a rare public acknowledgement of the casualty stats on the Ukrainian side. english.alarabiya.net/News/world/202…
Naturally, #Russia has fabricated "evidence" that the organiser of the bombing in Moscow that killed Dugin's daughter was a member of the Azov Regiment.
On a scale of 1 to 10, the convincingness of #Russia's story about #Ukraine being responsible for killing Dugin's daughter is in Salisbury spire territory.
An adviser to #Ukraine's President Zelensky says #Russia's propaganda "lives in a fictional world" (which is true) and "vipers in [Russia's] special services" are behind the assassination of Dugin's daughter (which is also probably true).
Vladimir Solovyev shows how little respect #Russia has for #Germany and its Chancellor, Olaf Scholz. All the concessions only increase Moscow's contempt.
#Russia moving to eliminate the Jewish Agency, and nothing #Israel has done to avoid directly confronting the Kremlin since the invasion of #Ukraine has been enough to prevent this.
Thread: 21 August 2022: Day 179 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
To follow up on the assassination of Aleksandr Dugin's daughter last night: the balance of probability for an assassination in Moscow is always the Russian FSB, possibly with the involvement of organised crime, not the Ukrainian SBU.
#pt: It is not *impossible* to construct a motive for the Ukrainian SBU trying to assassinate Dugin, but the SBU knows what apparently most Westerners do not: that Dugin is not a domestic power player, politically or ideologically, in the Kremlin.
Thread: 20 August 2022: Day 178 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: "only minimal changes" along the front line in the Donbas over "the last week", after some minor #Russian advances in early August. #Ukraine moving on Kherson, increasingly frequent strikes behind the lines in the south are "stressing Russian logistics".
Credit to #France's President Macron for this: strongly preparing the French population for a rough winter, necessary to defend their security and values.
A video "surfaced", as they say, yesterday, showing #Finland's Prime Minister, Marin Sanna, partying a few weeks ago in an evening she described as "pretty wild". This has caused some domestic criticism, but difficult to imagine this doing her any serious harm.
Thread: 18 August 2022: Day 176 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia has had "heavy attrition" of its tanks because of a "culture of poor" work with Explosive Reactive Armour (ERA) that "dates back to the First Chechen War in 1994". Failing to "enforce low-level battle discipline" of this kind has marked the war.
#pt: The Russian army, despite the so-called "modernisation", has precious little progress to show from nearly 30 years ago in Chechnya.
Thread: 17 August 2022: Day 175 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: notes the explosions on 16 August in Dzhankoi, home to one of two "most important Russian airfields in #Crimea" and "a key road and rail junction" supplying Russian forces in southern #Ukraine. "The cause ... is not yet clear" 😶
#Russia's state media is upset at the "repressions" of Donald Trump. In a strange segment, Vladimir Solovyov even wondered if "Teflon Don" might not be "[declared] a Russian spy" and if so would #Russia do a prisoner exchange "to bring Trump to Russia?". thedailybeast.com/russian-state-…
Thread: 16 August 2022: Day 174 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia's Black Sea Fleet is having to pursue an "extremely defensive posture", keeping vessels close to the Crimean coast after the loss of the flagship MOSKVA, a "significant proportion" of naval combat jets, and Snaks Island. Odesa out of reach.
More Nazis involved in Putin's denazification army