Thread by @CrisisGroup

Ground realities continue to shift the #Israeli-#Palestinian conflict away from the two-state solution that the #EU has long pursued.

The 🇪🇺 badly needs to update its approach.

[Thread] 🧵👇
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Events in 2021 put Europe’s outdated policy in sharp relief:

The outbreak of violence, including the 11-day #Gaza war, showed how volatile the conflict remains.

Meanwhile, #Israel rejects a negotiated two-state solution & Palestinian leader #Abbas cancelled overdue elections.

Europe blindly hews to its modus operandi: bolstering a faltering #Palestinian Authority against the Islamist group #Hamas, while shying away from serious efforts to encourage change in #Israeli policy.

So while Europe is giving substantial humanitarian aid to Palestinians, it is failing to address the most important political problems.

Moreover, it’s increasingly clear that Europe’s no-contact policy toward #Hamas is a dead end.

At the very least, it hampers efforts to end the sixteen-year siege of #Gaza, making recurrent bouts of violence more likely.

In word, Europe supports a viable, democratic and contiguous Palestinian state.

In reality, it seems to have abandoned efforts to build such a state.

It attempts instead to manage an ever-worsening “status quo” to which it clings mainly because it sees no alternative.

The #EU's inertia is born from a calculation that the costs of change are too high and the benefits too uncertain.

This calculation is understandable, but mistaken.

The current status quo is unsustainable: violence is likely to erupt again while the conflict is not contained.

#Gaza will never be calm so long as it remains an open-air prison.

Europe must act.

Europe is not powerless.

It should not ignore violations of values it claims to uphold & that prominent human rights groups liken to #apartheid-type crimes.

If #EU member states can surmount their inertia, they have tools that might positively alter the conflict’s trajectory.

Europe could hold the PA accountable for its repression, and direct funds toward Palestinian civil society, particularly human rights watchdogs.

It could better support #Palestinian legislative elections in which #Hamas participates to allow for a Palestinian unity government.

The #EU should also begin by requesting that #Israel clarify its vision for resolving the conflict.

At the same time, the EU should change its tone toward Israel to account for the damage Israeli occupation policies are doing to prospects for a two-state solution.

Europeans could launch discussions about how to adapt cooperation and trade with #Israel in a way that would support the peaceful resolution of the conflict, as well as the protection of #Palestinian rights.

Finally, the #EU should make it clear that it will not support any political solution that fails to guarantee full equality for all those residing in the territory under #Israeli control.

More in-depth recommendations in our newly published report 👇
crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…