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Aug 23 13 tweets 7 min read
Ground realities continue to shift the #Israeli-#Palestinian conflict away from the two-state solution that the #EU has long pursued.

The 🇪🇺 badly needs to update its approach.

[Thread] 🧵👇…
Events in 2021 put Europe’s outdated policy in sharp relief:

The outbreak of violence, including the 11-day #Gaza war, showed how volatile the conflict remains.

Meanwhile, #Israel rejects a negotiated two-state solution & Palestinian leader #Abbas cancelled overdue elections.
Europe blindly hews to its modus operandi: bolstering a faltering #Palestinian Authority against the Islamist group #Hamas, while shying away from serious efforts to encourage change in #Israeli policy.
So while Europe is giving substantial humanitarian aid to Palestinians, it is failing to address the most important political problems.
Moreover, it’s increasingly clear that Europe’s no-contact policy toward #Hamas is a dead end.

At the very least, it hampers efforts to end the sixteen-year siege of #Gaza, making recurrent bouts of violence more likely.
In word, Europe supports a viable, democratic and contiguous Palestinian state.

In reality, it seems to have abandoned efforts to build such a state.

It attempts instead to manage an ever-worsening “status quo” to which it clings mainly because it sees no alternative.
The #EU's inertia is born from a calculation that the costs of change are too high and the benefits too uncertain.

This calculation is understandable, but mistaken.
The current status quo is unsustainable: violence is likely to erupt again while the conflict is not contained.

#Gaza will never be calm so long as it remains an open-air prison.

Europe must act.
Europe is not powerless.

It should not ignore violations of values it claims to uphold & that prominent human rights groups liken to #apartheid-type crimes.

If #EU member states can surmount their inertia, they have tools that might positively alter the conflict’s trajectory.
Europe could hold the PA accountable for its repression, and direct funds toward Palestinian civil society, particularly human rights watchdogs.

It could better support #Palestinian legislative elections in which #Hamas participates to allow for a Palestinian unity government.
The #EU should also begin by requesting that #Israel clarify its vision for resolving the conflict.

At the same time, the EU should change its tone toward Israel to account for the damage Israeli occupation policies are doing to prospects for a two-state solution.
Europeans could launch discussions about how to adapt cooperation and trade with #Israel in a way that would support the peaceful resolution of the conflict, as well as the protection of #Palestinian rights.
Finally, the #EU should make it clear that it will not support any political solution that fails to guarantee full equality for all those residing in the territory under #Israeli control.

More in-depth recommendations in our newly published report 👇…

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More from @CrisisGroup

Aug 25
East African leaders have agreed to assemble troops to combat armed groups in the eastern Democratic Republic of #Congo #DRC.

What is this joint force and what are its objectives?

@PMvandeWalle takes a close look in our latest Q&A.

[Thread] 🧵👇…
The East African Community (EAC) @jumuiya is composed of #DRCongo 🇨🇩, #Tanzania 🇹🇿, #Kenya 🇰🇪, #Burundi 🇧🇮, #Rwanda 🇷🇼, #SouthSudan 🇸🇸 & #Uganda 🇺🇬.

The EAC’s joint force was designed to respond to the rampant insecurity in eastern DRC, a serious concern for the entire region.
Cyclic violence, displacement and insecurity due to the presence of armed groups has been plaguing the region for almost 30 years.

Yet an actual deployment of a regional force is unprecedented.…
Read 15 tweets
Aug 24
#TCHAD - Qui sont les absents du Dialogue National Inclusif & Souverain? #DNIS

Suite à l'accord de paix signé le 8 août à #Doha entre le Conseil Militaire de Transition (CMT) et ≈ 40 groupes politico-militaires, le DNIS a débuté avec beaucoup de chaises vides.

Pourquoi ? 🧵👇
Le #DNIS a commencé le 20 août à N'Djamena.

Environ 1400 délégués ont pour mission la reconstitution du paysage politique tchadien.

⚠️ Fait important, le DNIS est souverain et ses résolutions sont exécutoires.…
Dès l’ouverture du #DNIS, les travaux ont été suspendus afin de convaincre les absents de rejoindre les débats, sous l’impulsion de @parfait_onanga, @AUC_MoussaFaki et @Macky_Sall.

Mais qui sont les absents ?…
Read 16 tweets
Aug 22
In 2017, a brutal military crackdown on #Rohingya Muslims in #Myanmar’s Rakhine State forced 730,000 people to flee into neighbouring #Bangladesh.

5 years later, conditions in the camps are dire and prospects for repatriation remain low.

[Thread] 🧵👇…
Nearly all of the #Rohingya who fled Myanmar in 2017 remain in sprawling refugee camps across #Bangladesh’s #CoxBazar.

To date, not a single refugee has returned to Rakhine State through the formal repatriation mechanism.
#Myanmar’s government has so far proven unable to provide the #Rohingya with sufficient guarantees around their security, access to citizenship and livelihood opportunities upon return.
Read 14 tweets
Apr 7
Ladakh, often referred to as the world’s highest battlefield, is one of India’s most vulnerable spots in its border dispute with China.

Praveen Donthi journeyed to this barren, frigid plateau to better understand the decades-old conflict 🧵…
In summer, Ladakh is bustling with well-off tourists in search of adventure on the Himalayan plateau.

But in the cold winter months, it is one of the most inhospitable places on earth.

It is also the site of simmering tensions between India and China.
But why is this region contested?

Ladakh’s fuzzy borders were created by colonial administrations.

A buffer zone between the two Asian giants vanished after China invaded Tibet and paved the way for the 1962 Sino-Indian war.
Read 14 tweets
Mar 30
The Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) is tightening its grip in north eastern Nigeria, following the death of Abubakar Shekau, the leader of its main rival jihadist group.

As ISWAP’s power grows, how should Abuja and its neighbours respond? 🧵…
2/ ISWAP, Boko Haram’s most powerful faction, has decimated its main rival Jama’tu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS), advanced into rural Borno and resumed military operations against the Nigerian military.

It benefits from the recognition and support of ISIS’ core.
3/ ISWAP’s consolidation of power represents a serious security threat, not only in Nigeria, but also for the region.

The group has consolidated a semblance of governance over the territory it controls and, left unchecked, will likely grow in strength and expand.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 29
Despite the eruption of violence last year, neither Israel nor any outside power has overhauled its approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

It’s business as usual & that is the problem.

Unless something changes, future escalation is guaranteed 🧵…
After PM Netanyahu’s ouster, Western capitals welcomed the new tone and narrative of the coalition government to ‘shrink the conflict’.

Yet this softer tack amounts to little and overall dynamics of occupation, institutionalised discrimination and denial of basic rights persist.
External actors stand by, doing little.

The US has little interest in confronting Israel, illustrated by its muted response to the designation of 6 Palestinian civil society orgs as ‘terrorist groups’.

No European state seems willing to invest political capital.
Read 9 tweets

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