2⃣0⃣2⃣2⃣ has so far been a turbulent year for #peacemaking and #peacemediation. A 🧵 to capture some trends & themes, drawing on work of colleagues @CrisisGroup
1/#Russia’s invasion of #Ukraine has major repercussions on #peacemaking: undermines basic norms, increases polarization, poses “the gravest threat to international peace and security in decades”, as @CrisisGroup president & CEO @EroComfort wrote crisisgroup.org/global/watch-l…
2/@atwoodr #HoldYourFire podcast captures the global fallout of the war in Ukraine, including on peace talks crisisgroup.org/hold-your-fire…
3/Beyond Ukraine, peace processes resting on cooperation between Russia and the West face difficulties: #Georgia, #Moldova, #Libya. Important to keep diplomatic channels open, as @mwhanna1 and @delaneysimon argued crisisgroup.org/united-states/…
4/In some places, the war in Ukraine changed dynamics in favor of peace talks, but without lasting effect. In #NagornoKarabakh, negotiations picked up thanks to #EU mediation in spring, but this was followed by military confrontation & escalation risks crisisgroup.org/europe-central…
5/Similar story in #Venezuela: a high-level US delegation visited in March and contacts in Caracas btw government and opposition resumed in May. But negotiations remain stuck and a settlement elusive, as @philgunson wrote worldpoliticsreview.com/maduro-venezue…
6/Impact of the war in Ukraine on the #UnitedNations: tensions in the #SecurityCouncil increased, unified support for #peacemaking has become more difficult. But as @RichardGowan1 wrote, it may also inspire (small) reform steps crisisgroup.org/global/ukraine…
7/The #UNSG has put his #GoodOffices to good use, dealing with the war’s global fallout. The UN-Türkiye-brokered Black Sea Grain Deal is a case in point crisisgroup.org/europe-central…
8/Russia’s invasion of Ukraine called into question the #OSCE, its founding principles & function as an east-west dialogue platform. 6 months later, the #OSCE fortunately still works, but it needs determined diplomacy, as @Olesya_vArt and I argued in March crisisgroup.org/europe-central…
9/Unrelated to Ukraine, some good news in terms of #peacemaking included…
10/…a truce in #Yemen crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…
11/…peace dialogue restarting in #Thailand crisisgroup.org/asia/south-eas…
12/…momentum for normalizing relations between #Colombia and #Venezuela following Gustavo Petro’s election foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/26/ven…
13/…a truce and steps towards peace talks in #Ethiopia – called into question, however, by last week’s resumption of fighting, which as @wdavison10 said “demonstrates the need for the two parties to arrange unconditional face-to-face negotiations” theguardian.com/world/2022/aug…
14/Other #peacemaking themes that came to the fore in 2022: multiple mediators with overlapping mandates and parties preferring different mediators pose a challenge, as I have previously argued in the article “Envoy Envy”
https://twitter.com/DLanz_PeaceMed/status/1402616095320723459
15/This plays out in #Ethiopia, contributing to the recent serious breach in a truce crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-af…
16/…and also in #Sudan, which has seen a flurry of mediation initiatives since the Oct 2021 coup, as @alanboswell explained crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-af…
17/Another theme: the need to ensure sanctions don’t undermine #dialogue, #peacemediation and #peacebuilding. Stay tuned for a @CrisisGroup report later in the year and see @delaneysimon's insightful threads on #Colombia 👇 and #DRC
https://twitter.com/delaneysimon/status/1511334233079533569
18/On sanctions & mediation, see also this recently published article in @GlobalGovJnl written by Tom Biersteker, Rebecca Brubaker and yours truly brill.com/view/journals/…
19/Final theme: the need to explore talks with proscribed actors, as military approaches have not proven effective and if talks promise to reduce violence and improve the situation for civilians, as this report on #Somalia argued crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-af…
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