Thread by @ejmalrai

#Israel's Defence Minister is asking the army to be ready for a potential war: rubbish.
1. Israel has mobilised the forces for a month now
2. No official answers have been delivered to the Lebanese government
3. #Lebanon didn't respond to the Israeli not-yet-delivered reply.

4. #Israel's current government has decided from day one to postpone the negotiation and throw it in the arms of the forthcoming government, after the Knesset elections.
5. @yairlapid shall not agree on maritime demarcation in the last 20 days of his ruling

6. It will be up to the gov of #Lebanon or the President to announce the death of the indirect negotiation with #Israel. If that takes place, the #US & Israel will uphold the responsibility of war to the Lebanese government that insinuated to #Hezbollah to bomb the gas platforms.

7. #Hezbollah won't start bombing the gas platforms without a clear and official announcement from #Lebanon. This is not expected to happen because the US will put pressure on the officials.

Conclusion: No war between Hezbollah and Israel, for now.

#Israel can pump gas from the shore to Karish platform to test the pipeline,not vice-versa. Therefore,when the test starts,it doesn't mean that Israel has started the extraction. It is not excluded to find "technical failures" to postpone the extraction until after the elections.