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Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Oct 10

@criticalthreats

NEW | The attack on the #Kerch Strait Bridge is generating direct criticism of #Russian President Vladimir Putin and the #Kremlin from the Russian pro-war nationalist community. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…

#Ukrainian forces continued to advance east of the #Oskil River in the direction of #Luhansk Oblast and have entered #Stel’makhivka. Russian forces launched unsuccessful assaults on #Burdaka on the #Kharkiv Oblast-Russian border, and #Terny northeast of #Lyman.

#Russian sources reported that Russian forces attempted to attack in the direction of #Ternovi Pody. #Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces continued to target newly liberated settlements in northern #Kherson Oblast with artillery, MLRS, and aviation.

Read 4 tweets

Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Oct 10

Anti-regime #protests occurred in at least 18 cities in 15 different provinces in #Iran on October 9. 1/4 #مهسا_امینی

criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…

Iranian leadership may have ordered the IRGC Ground Forces to support the protest crackdown directly. The IRGC Ground Forces would likely use extreme force. Its deployment would indicate that the regime is alarmed by the protests and considers them a serious security threat. 2/4

Iran has built a multilayered security apparatus of different military and paramilitary institutions to impose social control. The IRGC Ground Forces is the regime’s last line of defense against internal unrest and the most prominent security layer after the LEC and Basij. 3/4

Read 4 tweets

Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Oct 6

@liam_karr

NEW #Africa File | #BurkinaFaso’s latest coup on Sep. 30 indicates that the governance and security crisis in West Africa’s #Sahel region continues to deepen. @liam_karr @brian_cartr @EmilyCEstelle criticalthreats.org/briefs/africa-… 1/5

Salafi-jihadi groups linked to #alQaeda and the #IslamicState have exploited cyclical violence and anti-government grievances to root themselves in local communities and steadily expand in the Sahel over the past decade. 2/5

The fallout from the Burkina Faso coup, like the 2020 and 2021 coups in Mali, will likely further reduce counterterrorism pressure and worsen the conditions that lead to Salafi-jihadi expansion. 3/5

Read 5 tweets

Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Oct 6

@TheStudyofWar

NEW | Increasing domestic critiques of #Russia’s “partial mobilization” are likely driving Putin to scapegoat the Russian Ministry of Defense and specifically Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…

The #Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in #Kharkiv Oblast has not yet culminated and is actively pushing into #Luhansk Oblast.

#Ukrainian troops likely consolidated positions and regrouped in northern #Kherson Oblast after making major gains over in the last 48 hours.

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Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Oct 5

@criticalthreats

Anti-regime protests in #Iran may have occurred in at least four cities in four provinces—a significant decrease from the previous day’s protest activity. Read the latest update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-… 1/4

Anti-regime outlet Iran International reported that #Iran is using orbit jamming to block the network’s satellite signal into Iran. 2/4

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (#IRGC) conducted an artillery strike on Sidekan in Iraqi Kurdistan for the tenth consecutive day. 3/4

Read 4 tweets

Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Oct 5

@criticalthreats

#Ukrainian forces continued to make significant gains in #Kherson Oblast while simultaneously continuing advances in #Kharkiv and #Luhansk Oblast. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… 1/4

#Ukrainian forces continued to make gains in eastern #Kharkiv Oblast west of #Svatove on October 4, pushing past the Oskil River and increasingly threatening #Russian positions in #Luhansk Oblast. 2/4

#Ukrainian forces continued to make substantial gains in northern #Kherson Oblast on October 4, beginning to collapse the sparsely-manned Russian lines in that area. 3/4

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