As #Syria fatigue sets in & concerns over refugee flows increase, some states within the #EU have begun pushing hard for a softer stance towards #Assad's regime -- some are even engaging.

The #EU itself may not change its policy, but actions by member states could pull it apart.
Concern within & between core #EU member states has risen markedly in recent months -- it's why I wrote this @ForeignPolicy piece.

Arguing that #Ukraine will deter internal #EU division on #Syria is not just wrong -- it's being proven inaccurate almost daily in #Brussels.
@ForeignPolicy Again, the #EU is unlikely to change its long-established policy on #Syria anytime soon -- but actions taken by an increasingly long list of individual states is already beginning to undermine the credibility & practical value of the #EU's official position.

That's v. worrying.
@ForeignPolicy The #EU's internal 'red line' against engaging #Assad's regime has already been broken -- and attempts to bridge the prohibition against early recovery+ are underway. Once the #EU sanctions regime begins to weaken, so too does the credibility of the #CaesarAct.

Stakes are big.
@ForeignPolicy If established #Syria policy principles were ever going to weaken or change, that change was never going to a sudden, rapid reversal -- it would be the result of a slow, incremental erosion of the status quo from within the system that developed it.

That may be where we're at.
@ForeignPolicy The impetus for this @ForeignPolicy article was a series of high-level conversations with senior European officials working on #Syria & #MiddleEast policy.

They all raised it, individually & unprompted -- and their concern was clear and urgent.

foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/27/eu-…

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More from @Charles_Lister

Nov 1
In recent days, #Somalia has been all over international headlines -- why?

#AlShabab killed 120+ in a double car bomb attack outside the Education Ministry in #Mogadishu.

That's to be expected, of course. It was a massive attack & the deadliest there for 5yrs. ImageImageImage
BUT another #Somalia story of enormous significance has struggled to win the attention of international media:

- #Somalia is on the brink of the worst famine seen in 50+ years.

Aid experts say this imminent famine will be worse than the one in 2011 -- when 260,000 died. Image
#Somalia's impending famine has attracted occasional reporting, but nothing like the blanket coverage after a terror attack.

Reasons for why are disturbing.

Barring nuclear war in #Ukraine, there's nothing on earth that threatens to match the disaster approaching #Somalia. Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 10
Last decade, the #Obama admin chose diplomacy with #Russia, betraying #Syria's opposition & abandoning millions in favor of a hopeless mission.

To see those who defended that policy -- while slamming those of us who critiqued it -- now doing a 180 is galling, to say the least.
Whether in 2013 after 1,000 civilians were killed by nerve gas; or 2015 when #Russia intervened; or 2017 when we submitted to #Moscow's "de-escalation" ruse -- the #Obama admin line, across the board, was:

- 'You want WW3? Really?'
- 'Challenging #Russia is just impossible.'
The #Obama admin's appeasement of #Russia & repeated insistence that #Putin was a logical actor with whom we could reach peaceful compromise damned #Syria into intractable misery -- & contributed to much bigger knock-on effects:

Refugee waves & far right populism... & #Ukraine.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 8
#Putin’s put Gen. Sergey Surovikin in command of the whole #Ukraine campaign — he’s a brutal, calculated leader.

It was Surovikin who coordinated the unilateral violation of 3/4 of #Syria’s “de-escalation zones,” methodically crippling the opposition & sealing #Assad’s survival.
#Ukraine clearly presents a challenge of completely different proportions to #Syria — but seeing Surovikin promoted to lead in #Ukraine is yet more evidence of just how *central* #Putin’s war in #Syria has been to his wider international ambitions.

It all started with #Syria.
Surovikin’s command in #Syria also coincided with the Khan Sheikhoun Sarin nerve agent attack, which killed 90 civilians & injured 500+.

A little known fact — #Russian troops were present (within eyesight) at Shayrat Airbase as the Sarin was loaded onto Syrian aircraft.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 7
Inside the Biden admin’s plan to resolve the crisis of al-Hol (& al-Roj).

This is a good read by @ckubeNBC & @carolelee on an issue @MiddleEastInst & @ICSR_Centre have been working intensively on for months now, with USG (esp. @StateDeptCT) & 25 govts.

nbcnews.com/news/world/isi…
@ckubeNBC @carolelee @MiddleEastInst @ICSR_Centre @StateDeptCT The past 6 months has seen a tidal change in momentum on what we're calling 'the detainee dilemma' -- there's a growing consensus to repatriate women & kids, with 3+ European govts planning repatriation ops this month alone & #Australia doing a 180° shift to do so too.

Progress.
@ckubeNBC @carolelee @MiddleEastInst @ICSR_Centre @StateDeptCT In recent weeks, @ICRC announced an intent to appoint a "special coordinator" for the al-Hol & al-Roj crises in NE #Syria & the USG has formed a senior inter-agency working group to sustain focus on the issue.

USG is providing broad assistance to allies to facilitate returns.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 6
NEW - U.S. special forces launched a helicopter-borne raid in #Assad-controlled territory ~15km south of #Qamishli in NE #Syria overnight, killing a senior #ISIS leader & capturing several others alive.

That’s the 1st op in regime-held areas since Abu Ghadiya in Oct 2008.
Some local sources claim at least 2 of those captured alive were members of a local pro-#Assad militia — but that remains unconfirmed.

Not clear if the deconfliction line with #Russia was used. #Russian aircraft & personnel are stationed at #Qamishli airport, not far away.
The #Qamishli area is an old stomping ground for #ISIS since AQI days, where #Assad’s Military Intel ran a ‘clearing house’ for AQI foreign fighters heading to #Iraq & for a time, a paramilitary training base.

From ‘03-‘08, 1,000s of AQI foreign fighters passed through the area.
Read 13 tweets
Sep 21
#Putin's call for a "partial" mobilization is the clearest sign yet that his #Ukraine invasion has been a pitiful failure.

That flights from Russia to its immediate neighbors are now selling out at 100mph tells you everything you need to know.

We *must* keep the pressure on. Image
#Putin's nuclear threat, meanwhile, should be taken even less seriously than 6 months ago -- anyone who actually says "this isn't a bluff" has already lost his/her own credibility.

Following through on the threat would kill off his few remaining friendships -- chiefly #China.
On days like this, the "we must give #Putin an off ramp ASAP" camp will speak up -- but such a gut response only benefits #Putin & repeats our mistakes of the past.

If #Putin wants an out, he has to be the one to ask (or plead) for one. It's actually happened before, in #Syria.
Read 5 tweets

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