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Andreas Umland

@UmlandAndreas

Dec 19

@vostoksos

THREAD ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY: Every additional Russian missile or drone hitting Ukrainian civilian buildings or critical infrastrucure has wider implications for Europe and the world. /1
(Picture: Summer 2019 @vostoksos mission: Recording gunfire at the Donbas contact line.)

The March 2022 decision by #NATO to reject #Ukraine's request for a #NoFlyZone was taken quickly & resolutely. However, deeper repercussions of this seemingly clear-cut case have remained under the radar screen. What Kyiv wanted was not NATO's active participation in the war. /2

Instead of inviting an out-of-area mission comparable to NATO's bombing of Serbia in 1999, the Ukrainian request for a #NoFlyZone was about protection from rather than an attack on Russia. It would be a bilateral agreement between Brussels & Kyiv regarding Ukraine's territory. /3

Read 15 tweets

Andreas Umland

@UmlandAndreas

Dec 15

@SWagenknecht

THREAD: Suppose one takes #JohnMearsheimer, the #RussianGovernment, @SWagenknecht, and similar analysts seriously. Since #Finland's #NATO application on 19 May 2022, we should be discussing every day how Helsinki is putting the future of humankind at risk. /1 @FansMearsheimer

@SWagenknecht

@SWagenknecht @FansMearsheimer @Konflikt_Sicher @WeLoveNATO @UkraineToNato @TerekMedia @GSPSipo @FiS_Heidelberg @prarmyua @PromoteUkraine @DAGATAGermany @LiberaleModerne Once #Finland enters @NATO, the length of the border between the Western alliance and #Russia will approximately double. #NATO will be able to attack #Putin's hometown St. Petersburg from two sides, from Finland approx. 170 km away and from #Estonia approx. 140 km away. /2

@SWagenknecht

@SWagenknecht @FansMearsheimer @Konflikt_Sicher @WeLoveNATO @UkraineToNato @TerekMedia @GSPSipo @FiS_Heidelberg @prarmyua @PromoteUkraine @DAGATAGermany @LiberaleModerne @NATO #Helsinki's reckless application, @NATO's positive response, and the almost complete ratification of #Finland's accession have brought us to the verge of #WorldWarIII. But somehow most foreign political TV shows today are about #Ukraine, and not about Finland. /3

Read 5 tweets

Andreas Umland

@UmlandAndreas

Dec 7

Most discussions of #Russia’s attack on #Ukraine are about one’s position within the #RussianUkrainianWar. Yet, the real question is: What stance do you take towards the #annihilation and #intimidation campaign of an army against millions of civilians? /1
defenseone.com/technology/202…

How best formulate "interests," "strategy" & "tactics" in the face of undisguised mass murder? What is "wise" & "unwise" to do vis-à-vis state terror? How calibrate your reaction when heavy weapons daily target infrastructure that keeps pensioners, patients & children alive? /2

What position and action does a European take regarding not so much a European war, but a state's daily, purposeful & demonstrative use, in Europe, of large cannons, missiles, bombers and warships to explode the homes and life support systems of families during winter time? /END

Read 4 tweets

Andreas Umland

@UmlandAndreas

Dec 2

@AtlanticCouncil

An elaboration on Peter Dickinson's article for the @AtlanticCouncil: People around the world - not the least #Israelis - will now better understand why some "civilized" states did not help Jews in the 1930s and 1940s as much as they could & should have./1 atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…

@AtlanticCouncil

@AtlanticCouncil #Israel has today its own reasons to largely watch rather than substantially help prevent an almost live-streamed #genocide. Countries had eight decades ago their own reasons not to "overreact" to a looming #Holocaust that was still in the fog, at that time. /2

@AtlanticCouncil

@AtlanticCouncil #Morality does not necessarily create behavioral imperatives even in the face of the possible suffering of millions -- as #Jews can now vividly learn from the behavior of their own state. /END

Read 4 tweets

Andreas Umland

@UmlandAndreas

Nov 24

@SCEEUS_UI

Many Western observers assuming that #Ukraine can & should exchange land for peace underestimate neo-Soviet utilitarianism. #Russian leaders engage in #aggressions because they generate victories that are popular with many #Russians. /1
@SCEEUS_UI @Konflikt_Sicher @DGO_Berlin

Victories in #Moldova, #Chechnia, Georgia, #Crimea, Syria, and the Donbas did not satisfy Russia. They triggered appetite for more victories. If #Russia is provided with another victory, this will not bring peace but merely provide time to prepare for achieving more victories. /2

#Odesa, #Pavlodar, #Belarus, #Narva.... - you name it. Aggression works, both internationally and domestically. Obtained lands confirm the utility of aggression. Peace is necessary to prepare the next victory. Concessions feed aggressiveness & will not satisfy the appetite. /END

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Andreas Umland

@UmlandAndreas

Nov 19

Perhaps, the best strategy to help #Ukrainians now is to improve the transportation infrastructure between #Ukraine and the #EU. Many individuals, initiatives, and organizations ready to help and to take the risk will use new trains and roads to flexibly do what is necessary. /1

@Ukrzaliznytsia

One could imagine direct high speed @Ukrzaliznytsia trains from @rzeszow_airport & other EU airports near Ukraine's western border to Kyiv or even further east, and with direct flights to these airports from Berlin, Brussels, London, Paris, Stockholm, New York, Toronto, etc. /2

A strategy to enable Ukrainians to better help themselves as well as to ease the activities of thousands of governmental and non-governmental pro-Ukrainian structures can have cumulative & spill over effects going beyond what one can currently imagine./END

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