Congratulations to the writers of #VolodymyrZelenskyy's excellent speech! While most people lionize now #Zelenskyy​, I do not think that another president of #Ukraine would have been much worse. /1 - THREAD
Imagine #VolodymyrZelenskiy​ had not entered the presidential race and there had been a different contest and election in early 2019. /2
If, for instance, #PetroPoroshenko​, #YuliiaTymoshenko​, #AnatolyyHrytsenko​, #VitaliKlitschko​, or another of the more feasible candidates had become Ukrainian president, this would have changed little in the subsequent course of events. /3
#Poroshenko and #Tymoshenko are also effective leaders -- in view of their long political experience, perhaps even more so than #Zelensky​ -- as well as good speakers. /4
There are also effective leaders, both male, and female, in the second rank of #Ukraine's current political elite including, for instance, #OleksiiReznikov​ or #IrynaVereshchuk​. While this was an outstanding performance, it is more about Ukraine than about its president. /END

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More from @UmlandAndreas

Dec 19
THREAD ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY: Every additional Russian missile or drone hitting Ukrainian civilian buildings or critical infrastrucure has wider implications for Europe and the world. /1
(Picture: Summer 2019 @vostoksos mission: Recording gunfire at the Donbas contact line.)
The March 2022 decision by #NATO to reject #Ukraine's request for a #NoFlyZone was taken quickly & resolutely. However, deeper repercussions of this seemingly clear-cut case have remained under the radar screen. What Kyiv wanted was not NATO's active participation in the war. /2
Instead of inviting an out-of-area mission comparable to NATO's bombing of Serbia in 1999, the Ukrainian request for a #NoFlyZone was about protection from rather than an attack on Russia. It would be a bilateral agreement between Brussels & Kyiv regarding Ukraine's territory. /3
Read 15 tweets
Dec 18
Как то многие #русские не поняли или не хотят признать простую вещь: кроме других народов, #чекитсы ради своей власти уничтожали 70 лет и русскую традицию, мысль, науку, культуру, веру, нацию. /1
fb.watch/hut-zGrhWT/
А теперь уничтожают ещё и российское государство - все под предлогом защиты и безопасности русских от капиталистов, троцкистов, террористов, сатанистов, неонацистов, гомосексуалистов... /2
Вспомните сентябрь 1999 года: Ваши жилые дома в Москве, Волгодонске и Буйнакске тогда также взрывались, как сегодня жилые дома "братских" украинцев. Все ради власти гебешной корпорации. Вы, простые русские, для ваших правителей такой же расходный материал как и другие народы. /3
Read 5 tweets
Dec 15
THREAD: Suppose one takes #JohnMearsheimer, the #RussianGovernment, @SWagenknecht, and similar analysts seriously. Since #Finland's #NATO application on 19 May 2022, we should be discussing every day how Helsinki is putting the future of humankind at risk. /1 @FansMearsheimer
@SWagenknecht @FansMearsheimer @Konflikt_Sicher @WeLoveNATO @UkraineToNato @TerekMedia @GSPSipo @FiS_Heidelberg @prarmyua @PromoteUkraine @DAGATAGermany @LiberaleModerne Once #Finland enters @NATO, the length of the border between the Western alliance and #Russia will approximately double. #NATO will be able to attack #Putin's hometown St. Petersburg from two sides, from Finland approx. 170 km away and from #Estonia approx. 140 km away. /2
@SWagenknecht @FansMearsheimer @Konflikt_Sicher @WeLoveNATO @UkraineToNato @TerekMedia @GSPSipo @FiS_Heidelberg @prarmyua @PromoteUkraine @DAGATAGermany @LiberaleModerne @NATO #Helsinki's reckless application, @NATO's positive response, and the almost complete ratification of #Finland's accession have brought us to the verge of #WorldWarIII. But somehow most foreign political TV shows today are about #Ukraine, and not about Finland. /3
Read 5 tweets
Dec 7
Most discussions of #Russia’s attack on #Ukraine are about one’s position within the #RussianUkrainianWar. Yet, the real question is: What stance do you take towards the #annihilation and #intimidation campaign of an army against millions of civilians? /1
defenseone.com/technology/202…
How best formulate "interests," "strategy" & "tactics" in the face of undisguised mass murder? What is "wise" & "unwise" to do vis-à-vis state terror? How calibrate your reaction when heavy weapons daily target infrastructure that keeps pensioners, patients & children alive? /2
What position and action does a European take regarding not so much a European war, but a state's daily, purposeful & demonstrative use, in Europe, of large cannons, missiles, bombers and warships to explode the homes and life support systems of families during winter time? /END
Read 4 tweets
Dec 2
An elaboration on Peter Dickinson's article for the @AtlanticCouncil: People around the world - not the least #Israelis - will now better understand why some "civilized" states did not help Jews in the 1930s and 1940s as much as they could & should have./1 atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
@AtlanticCouncil #Israel has today its own reasons to largely watch rather than substantially help prevent an almost live-streamed #genocide. Countries had eight decades ago their own reasons not to "overreact" to a looming #Holocaust that was still in the fog, at that time. /2
@AtlanticCouncil #Morality does not necessarily create behavioral imperatives even in the face of the possible suffering of millions -- as #Jews can now vividly learn from the behavior of their own state. /END
Read 4 tweets
Nov 24
Many Western observers assuming that #Ukraine can & should exchange land for peace underestimate neo-Soviet utilitarianism. #Russian leaders engage in #aggressions because they generate victories that are popular with many #Russians. /1
@SCEEUS_UI @Konflikt_Sicher @DGO_Berlin
Victories in #Moldova, #Chechnia, Georgia, #Crimea, Syria, and the Donbas did not satisfy Russia. They triggered appetite for more victories. If #Russia is provided with another victory, this will not bring peace but merely provide time to prepare for achieving more victories. /2
#Odesa, #Pavlodar, #Belarus, #Narva.... - you name it. Aggression works, both internationally and domestically. Obtained lands confirm the utility of aggression. Peace is necessary to prepare the next victory. Concessions feed aggressiveness & will not satisfy the appetite. /END
Read 4 tweets

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