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Jan 10, 2023 β€’ 15 tweets β€’ 14 min read β€’ Read on X
1/13 The bussin LSD Narrative: Will Lido's share of ETH stake skyrocket after the Shanghai upgrade?

What will happen to the withdrawn ETH? 🧡
2/13
A quick mention to @ViktorDefi for pointing out this narrative! πŸ’ͺ

Give it a read if you haven't yet πŸ‘‡
3/13
ETH's staking ratio isn't too great compared to other chains and a few reasons include:

- High risk associated with the inability to withdraw stake
- Capital inefficiency of having >32ETH.
4/13
Ethereum's Shanghai upgrade launch timeline:
5/13
Before diving into the narrative of LSD protocols skyrocketing, let's take a look at the process leading up to it.

To understand that, we need to analyze the staking and withdrawing mechanism βš™
6/13
ETH validators have what's called an Effective Balance ("EB") used to calculate rewards/penalties:

- EB will never be >32ETH
- EB is a multiple of 1 (ie 29.5ETH = EB of 29)
- The "Hysteresis zone" indicates areas where EB never changes:
7/13
The EB means even if a validator has accumulated 50 ETH over the course of staking, he only gets 32 ETH worth of rewards - capital inefficient.

Data from Beaconchain (as at 10 Jan) indicates an average validator balance of 34ETH.
8/13
With 497K Validators, that's 994K ETH ($1.32B) worth of inefficient capital.

And that's what could potentially be pumped into LSD protocols πŸ˜‹
9/13
Each epoch supports 256 withdrawals -tinyurl.com/withdrawalsper…

An ETH epoch lasts 6.4mins which equates to ~225 epochs a day, or 57.6K withdrawals.

Logically, validators would withdraw the 2 excess ETH for better use, ie 57.6K x 2 = 115.2K ETH withdrawn a day.
10/13
Hence, it takes around 10 days for the full 994K of "inefficient ETH" to be withdrawn.
11/13
This 994K ETH could be re-staked into LSDs like Lido or Rocket Pool or sold in open markets, potentially leading to sell pressure across the 10 or more days.
12/13
While the narrative of Lido's 51% monopoly is possible, LidoDAO is contemplating limiting their max stake to a fixed % of total staked ETH to ensure decentralization.
13/13
I hope you've found this thread helpful.

Follow me @0xsurferboy for more threads on untapped crypto topics 😊

Like ❀/Retweet the first tweet below if you can πŸ™

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More from @0xsurferboy

Nov 7, 2023
The Gambling industry in the US is worth more than $261 billion

One of the most profitable web3 sectors is Gambling

5 GambleFi/ Gambling tokens I'm watching for TGE szn πŸ‘‡ Image
1/24
Remember the house always wins in the long run?

This is what makes GambleFi projects money printing machines

Before diving in, I'd kindly ask for you to engage with the first tweet - it helps a lot and encourages me to keep bringing free educational content to you :)
2/24
These projects utilize smart contracts to manage and execute bets, calculate winnings, and distribute them.

This removes the need for trust, as everything is implemented on a blockchain.
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Oct 14, 2023
1) What Happened

Ever seen a RUG to 0 of this scale?

Yea... that's my followers chart - My account was suspended at 24.1K.

Here's my thoughts on the very valid use case of Web3 Social

If You're reading this on Twitter, it already concerns YOU.

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1/17
As much as I want to provide insight into what happened and actionable steps for you to prevent your account from meeting the same fate, I didn't get much info from Twitter...

Apart from a User Report which single-handedly nuked my account on Monday. Image
2/17
What I can say is that YOU are at risk.

Not your keys, not your account,

and you CAN'T do anything about it - Welcome to Web2 Social. Image
Read 18 tweets
Jul 20, 2023
Crypto VC funding activity fell in Q2 2023,

but the industry as a whole is still teeming with OPPORTUNITY...

A dive into H1 2023 VC Activity and the projects that VCs are watching.

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1/17
Background statistics

QoQ - VC investments in Q2 2023 dropped by ~33% ($3.09B -> $2.04B)

H1 2022 saw ~$32B in crypto investments, H1 2023 saw ~$5B. Image
2/17
According to Binance's institutional crypto outlook report,

Infra, L1s, & L2s are still favored greatly by institutional money. (e.g. zk, eigenlayer, layerzero)

Sub-niches covered include wallet innovation (Account abstraction, I'm guessing, is the fan favorite) Image
Read 20 tweets
Jun 25, 2023
DeFi is overly complicated for the average Joe.

With hundreds of tools out there, how do you consolidate all that info?

When in fact, all you might need is this 1 tool.

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1/13
Using on-chain tools is essential to help you find alpha. The problem is there are too many tools out there to choose from.

I'm not saying those tools are bad, but what if you just want a quick glance of a token's on-chain statistics?
2/13
KyberSwap recently announced the launch of KyberAI.

This provides traders with:
β€’ Live on-chain data (Trading vol, whale tracking, CEX flows, etc.)
β€’ Funding rate info
β€’ CEX Liquidation info

Check it out here:
https://t.co/AK7JiGirHHkyberswap.com/KyberAI/About?…
Read 17 tweets
Jun 20, 2023
Fiat blockchains are the bridge between TradFi and DeFi.

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1/14
FiatFi refers to the bridging of TradFi money into DeFi.

Fiat blockchains like Stellar tokenize real-world currencies into digital assets or stables.

Users deposit fiat -> receive an equivalent amount of tokens, and can use them for blockchain transactions.
2/14
Normal on-ramping:
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FiatFi:
Fiat is directly tokenized within the platform and usable in DeFi. @pendulum_chain is building the foundation.
Read 15 tweets
Jun 14, 2023
Exit scams can be easily prevented with on-chain information.

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1/13
1️⃣ Bubblemaps (@bubblemaps)

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All you need to find is the token contract to analyze. Image
2/13
Let's take this token contract for example:
$ETHC - 0x6A798e9de5611251415212B213A2e8119DB99ba2

On the surface, this looks like an up-only token, but don't be fooled cus its a honeypot.

Bubblemaps will show how this scam was carried out. Image
Read 16 tweets

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