* Let me make this concretely clear:

Punitive sanctions on #Assad's regime have zero effect on the influx of aid into regime-held areas of #Syria.

Moreover, the x3 sanctioning entities (U.S., E.U. & #Canada) provide 90% of the ~$5bn aid program directed through #Damascus.
That UN aid program in #Damascus is an enormous effort -- & without Western funding, it'd vanish almost instantly.

Our governments continue to fund it to help those in need, in regime areas, *despite* the #Assad regime's systematic manipulation & diversion of the aid for 12yrs.
We continue to fund the UN's aid program in #Damascus, even despite the #Assad regime's policy of enforcing manipulated exchange rates upon its in-flows -- meaning that 51 cents of every single $1 sent in, is stolen by the regime.

Removing sanctions *only* benefits #Assad. Only.
In formal, policy terms, the #Biden admin has also made all humanitarian aid entirely exempt from any sanctions-related restrictions.

home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…

In other words, international aid -- 49% of which is paid for by the U.S. -- continues to go #Assad areas, unchallenged.

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More from @Charles_Lister

Feb 6
Northwestern #Syria#Idlib & #Aleppo in particular — have suffered 12yrs of brutal conflict. More than 65% of the basic infrastructure of the area is destroyed or heavily damaged.

Tonight’s earthquake couldn’t have hit a more vulnerable region.

An absolute disaster.
Utterly horrific reports coming from all across NW #Syria - every town I’ve heard from has dozens of buildings flattened. People stuck under the rubble.

Any many, many casualties — including children.

@SyriaCivilDefe will be heroes tonight, working amid heavy rain & sleet.
I’ve heard from x3 hospitals in #Idlib & N. #Aleppo — all are full, every bed taken by emergency cases following tonight’s earthquake.

As rescuers & civilians seek to extract people & belongings from rubble, there’s mass panic about aftershocks.

@SyriaCivilDefe stretched thin.
Read 34 tweets
Feb 3
According to recent leaks, #ISIS's evolved administrative structure is ruffling some internal feathers in the #MiddleEast.

The crux of internal tensions lies in the increasingly blurry lines of authority over operations, leadership succession & resource use in #Iraq & #Syria.
Leaks claim #ISIS's "Ardh al-Mubarakah" office manages operations in #Syria, #Lebanon & #Turkey, while the Bilad al-Rafidayn office runs #Iraq.

The latter was also running ops in #Iran -- until recently at least, when #Iran was folded into the #Afghanistan "Al-Siddique" office.
These recent leaks - from normally reliable sources - claim Abu al-Hassan's succession in March 2022 was decided by the Ardh al-Mubarakah office, without any consultation with the Bilad al-Rafidayn office in #Iraq.

He then risked locating to #Daraa, also without any consolation.
Read 7 tweets
Feb 3
أمر ما يجب أن نقدّمه لسوريا -- 13 عاما من الأزمة المستمرة تتجه نحو انهيار حتمي

- مقالتي الجديدة في @ForeignPolicy:

* whia.us/?p=9046 (عربي)

* foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/01/som… (الإنجليزي)
الأزمة #السورية ستدخل عامها الـ 13 في مارس/آذار القادم، ورغم أن مستوى العنف في جميع أنحاء البلاد منخفض الآن نسبيا مقارنة بالسنوات الماضية، فإن الأزمة ما زالت بعيدة جدا عن نهايتها، وفقا للأكاديمي تشارلز ليستر:

aja.me/9037gj
نشرت مجلة "فورين بوليسي" مقالا لمدير برامج #سوريا ومكافحة الإرهاب والتطرف في معهد الشرق الأوسط ،(@MiddleEastInst) تشارلز ليستر، قال فيه إن الوضع الراهن في البلاد غير مستدام على الإطلاق وسيتغير لا محالة.

arabi21.com/story/1491686/…
Read 4 tweets
Jan 26
Yesterday saw an intriguing incident outside al-Bab in northern #Aleppo:

- A prominent member of a pro-#HTS [semi-breakaway] wing of Ahrar al-Sham, Saddam al-Mousa (Abu Uday) was killed outside his home in what was described as a "drone strike."
Abu Uday had become notorious for facilitating #HTS's advance into northern #Aleppo in Oct 2022 -- & in its wake, he secured control of the valuable al-Hamran crossing (to #SDF areas) & agreed to share its revenue streams with #HTS.

He was also a known player in the arms trade.
Abu Day's stubborn refusal to back down & turn al-Hamran back to the Syrian National Army (SNA) had become a source of acute frustration for #Turkey -- both #TSK & MIT.

Numerous attempts were made to evict him, by force & negotiation & their failure was grating Turkey-SNA ties.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 30, 2022
NEW - #ISIS announce the death of leader Abu al-Hassan al-Qurashi -- "killed in action," but no details as to when or where.

His replacement is named as Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini.
Lots of rumor swirling re. #ISIS's leader's death.

- Some (linked to #SDF) say he was killed in a joint US-SDF raid in NE #Syria.

- Some (linked to opposition) say he was killed in #Idlib, either (a) Nov 19 during a reported #HTS SSG raid, or (b) Nov 26 in an unreported op.
- And still others (mostly observers) think this is all a ruse & #ISIS leader Abu al-Hassan is still alive.

As always with #Syria, it'll take time for reality to emerge. Time to do some digging.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 29, 2022
As with most things @BBCRosAtkins, this was good.

One thing — as @GaryLineker admits, the @BBC (& the West writ large) failed to hold #Russia to account in ‘18 (amid FAR worse crimes/abuse). Time to acknowledge there’s probably a reason why. Nobody’s willing to go there, though.
@BBCRosAtkins @GaryLineker @BBC A tale of double-standards:

2018, batting away criticism of #Russia:

- "Who are we to start getting judgmental on who should have the World Cup?"

2022, on #Qatar:

- "It’s the most controversial World Cup in history.. corruption.. migrant workers.. women's rights.. LGBTQ.."
@BBCRosAtkins @GaryLineker @BBC And now news that @GaryLineker was paid ~$2 million by #Qatar for coverage of the Champions League until 2012 -- including *after* #Qatar won the World Cup bid and before any of the reforms that followed.

Some consistency would be nice.

dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsne…
Read 5 tweets

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