1) Detection tech could render submarines useless by 2050

If so, what does it mean for the #AUKUS nuclear sub pact?

If subs can be detected, they become easy targets: large, slow-moving and vulnerable to attack from the surface.
asiatimes.com/2023/03/detect…
2) Subs in the ocean are large, metallic anomalies that move in the upper portion of the water column.

As they pass through the water, they disturb it & change its physical, chemical & biological signatures. They even disturb Earth’s magnetic field & nuclear subs emit radiation.
3) We argue there is evidence submarines could dramatically reduce in effectiveness in the coming decades.

In other words, Australia risks investing in a nuclear ecosystem whose use-by date may be much earlier than we’d like. If we are to invest, we need to do so now.

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More from @IndoPac_Info

Sep 25, 2022
#BREAKING: #Chinese media said 2,296 delegates to the 20th Party Congress have been elected under the leadership of #XiJinping

Xi is expected to receive a 5-year-term in October, paving the way for his ascendence to Paramount Leader of the Party for life.
Sorry, No #chinacoup
2) Xinhua News Agency: Election of deputies to the 20th National Congress was completed.

Each electoral unit across China held party congresses or party representative meetings respectively & elected 2,296 deputies to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of #China
3) The National Party Congress of the Communist Party of China is held every five years.

The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will determine the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party for the next five years.
Read 4 tweets
Aug 4, 2022
#THREAD: 1) It seems to me that #China has chosen a phased approach of limited military measures to squeeze #Taiwan here & there, on & off, pressure & release tactics, coupled with long term economic retaliation.

Southern Okinawa Japanese islands are also in China's crosshairs. Image
2) Here, the Global Times talks about #PLA military drill areas becoming a threat to #Taiwan's ports & shipping lanes, forming a blockade as a step to achieve reunification by force in the future.

Also a good way to test a US response.

3) This would be a calibrated approach, designed to hurt enough, but not too much that can trigger a war or US intervention.

But...... If Taiwan fires on Chinese forces to stop the blockade, then China has the excuse to go with full force, or could take small Taiwanese islands. Image
Read 6 tweets
Aug 1, 2022
THREAD: 1) With His Weak Response to #China’s Threats, Biden May Just Have thrown #Taiwan under the Bus

Biden worked behind the scenes to stop Pelosi from visiting Taiwan.

Biden also seemed to sacrifice Taiwan’s defence on a phone call with Xi Jinping.
msn.com/en-in/news/opi…
2) In a a long phone call over 2 hours, a White House statement said that Biden “underscored that the United States policy has not changed and that the US strongly opposes unilateral efforts to change the status quo or undermine peace & stability across the Taiwan Strait”
3) According to the statement, Xi emphasised the Chinese claim over the island. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated, “Those who play with fire will perish by it.” The Ministry added, “It is hoped that the US will be clear-eyed about this.”
Read 4 tweets
Mar 8, 2022
1/ #Ukrainian Nationalist Volunteers Committing 'ISIS-Style' War Crimes: Amnesty International

Right-wing Ukrainian ultra nationalists are committing war crimes in rebel-held territories of Eastern #Ukraine, evidence of militias beheading their victims.
newsweek.com/evidence-war-c…
2/ Armed volunteers who refer to themselves as the Aidar battalion "have been involved in widespread abuses, including abductions, unlawful detention, ill-treatment, theft, extortion, and possible executions", Amnesty said.
3/ Kiev-based Pravilnoe TV reported that it had spoken with one of the mothers who confirmed her son was a rebel, captured during fighting in Donetsk.

She said she had received her son's head in a wooden box in the post, blaming nationalist volunteers for her son's death.
Read 29 tweets
Mar 7, 2022
1/ #Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 11:

It's likely #Russian forces will renew offensive operations in the next 24-48 hours with emphasis on continuing to encircle #Kyiv, attacking west of #Kharkiv & capturing #Mariupol. Via @JominiW

#Russia #Ukraine #Donbass
#UkraineRussiaWar
2/ Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart.

Key take away, both #Russian & #Ukrainian forces conducted limited probes throughout NW Kyiv.

Russian forces seem to be increasing targeting of known civilian exit routes, most likely to degrade morale. #KyivNow Via @JominiW
3/ Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart.

Key take away, #Russian forces are bringing thermobaric MLRSs to the Chernihiv area.

The Russian are also concentrating forces to east of #Kyiv. It's possible the #Ukrainians may counterattack east of Kyiv. Via @JominiW
Read 4 tweets
Mar 7, 2022
1/ How to interpret #Putin’s nuclear war threats

If #Russia's economy collapses & #Ukraine war fails, a limited nuclear strike to demonstrate resolve is not inconceivable.

I'd say very likely. Analysts & diplomats with good links to #Putin are worried.
asiatimes.com/2022/03/how-to…
2/ By alluding to a disproportionate nuclear escalation, Moscow wants to limit (or even reverse) western interference in Ukraine, in order to make the Russian war effort more sustainable. The West’s most powerful weapon at present is sanctions rather than military intervention.
3/ This carries its own risks. If such measures were really to cause the near-term “collapse of the Russian economy” & threaten the survival of the domestic order, the Russian elite might come to perceive that existential threat as making victory vital in Ukraine, at all costs.
Read 4 tweets

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