@IMFNews’ ArtIV mission to #Lebanon concluded w this stark statement (in a presser no Lebanese official attended).
A last wake-up call before ultimate act of homicide this country’s mafiacracy is committing vs its people in order to save its a*s.. imf.org/en/News/Articl…
«#Lebanon is at a dangerous crossroads, & w/out rapid reforms will be mired in a never-ending crisis. A continuation of the status quo & additional delays in implementing reforms will keep the economy depressed, with irreversible consequences for the whole country.»
«W/out acknowledging & credibly addressing the large financial gap in the banking sector,banks will not be able to provide meaningful credit to support the economy,small depositors will continue to incur large losses,while medium/large deposits will remain indefinitely locked.»
«Informality of the econ will further increase,reducing scope for taxation & further depressing budgetary spending,while increasing risk of illicit activities entrenched in the economy. Emigration,particularly skilled labor, wld accelerate,further undermining growth prospects.»
«There is an alternative path leading to stability and growth:
This requires acknowledging & addressing upfront large losses incurred by the central bank & commercial banks,respecting the hierarchy of claims,protecting small depositors,& limiting recourse to the public sector.»
«Viable banks should be restructured & recapitalized under a timebound plan, & unviable banks should exit the market.
The effective implementation of the strategy requires amending the Banking Secrecy Law.»
#US airstrikes on facilities used by #Iran’s proxies came in retaliation to a drone strike in north-east #Syria that killed a US contractor & injured five American troops.
Strikes killed six fighters at an arms depot in the Harabesh neighbourhood in the city of #Deir_Ezzor.
Interesting:
“Diplomacy to de-escalate the crisis appeared immediately around the strikes. #Qatar reported a call between its foreign minister & Jake Sullivan, the #US national security adviser. Qatar’s foreign minister then spoke with the #Iranian FM Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.”
“#Syria & #Saudi_Arabia have agreed to reopen their embassies after cutting diplomatic ties more than a decade ago; a step that would mark a leap forward in Damascus's return to the Arab fold.” reuters.com/world/middle-e…
“The decision was the result of talks in #Saudi_Arabia with a senior #Syrian intelligence official.
A Gulf diplomat said a high-ranking Syrian intelligence official "stayed for days" in Riyadh & agreement was struck to reopen embassies "very soon".”
“One regional source identified the official as #Hussam_Louqa, who heads #Syria's #intelligence committee; talks included security on Syria's border w #Jordan & the smuggling of captagon to the Arab #Gulf, from Syria.”
The failed assassination attempt vs #IraqiPM#Kadhimi calls for several observations:
• 1st contextual element: Recent Iraqi elections were clear setback for #Iran (w/out really strengthening the PM’s own constituency; while strengthening #Muqtada_Sadr, a volatile actor).
(1)
(2) • This has triggered 2 opposite effects:
- need for #Iran & #PMF to reassert control & preeminence on #Iraqi scene (by use of violence among other means).
- (vs) temptation by rivals (mainly #Gulf) to (over?)read setback as a net advantage in their favor.
(3) • 2nd contextual element:
- Stalling of #Saudi/#Iran talks (#Yemen setback?), w clear #Gulf stiffening (#Lebanon?) as bargaining posture.
- soon new round of Iran/#US talks, w Vienna process becoming in final decisive phase.
“Without #Qatar’s mediation and involvement, the #US withdrawal would likely have been much more violent and bloody.
Years ago, Qatar was “chosen” by the #Taliban to be the liaison between them and the United States.”
“#Qatar became a key state in the #US’ relat w the Islamist group,& arranged the meeting bet @CIA chief #William_Burns & #Taliban. Qatar is now running negos w Taliban over safeguarding Kabul’s airport, which will enable Taliban to start rebuild #Afghanistan & forge int’l ties.”
Cet article d’@ishacdiwan fait partie d’une série plus exhaustive sur les ressorts et impacts de la crise #Libanaise globale, et que @ifi_aub publie sur plusieurs semaines en collaboration avec @LOrientLeJour et @lorienttoday.
“La cause immédiate du désastre #libanais est désormais claire: un pays qui a trop dépensé, à crédit, sans augmentation proportionnelle de la production, puis l’arrêt soudain des flux financiers lorsque la confiance en un atterrissage en douceur s’est évaporée.”