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Jun 5 15 tweets 7 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
New Update | CrisisWatch

⚡ Four conflict risks in June

↘️ Twelve conflict deteriorations in May

❗ Country in focus: #Pakistan 🇵🇰

1/x
crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch
⚡ Conflict Risk Alert | #Sudan

Hostilities escalated between the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, notably in Darfur region, where the growing involvement of tribal militias and armed groups threatens all-out civil war.
⚡ Conflict Risk Alert | #Somaliland

Fighting between government forces and Dhulbahante clan militias spread in the Sool region.

As parties recruit new fighters, the conflict could ripple into other parts of Somaliland.
crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-af…
⚡ Conflict Risk Alert | Korean Peninsula

Large-scale military exercises conducted by the U.S. and South Korea to mark their alliance’s 70th anniversary and North Korea’s attempts to launch a satellite look set to contribute to a spike in tensions.
crisisgroup.org/asia/north-eas…
⚡ Conflict Risk Alert | #Russia

Ukraine-aligned Russian combatants staged a cross-border incursion and multiple drones targeted the capital, Moscow.

As the war in Ukraine continues, more subversive activities and attacks on Russian territory can be expected.
↘️ Deteriorated Situation | #Pakistan

Prime Minister Imran Khan’s arrest triggered deadly street clashes between his supporters and security forces, widening the breach with the government and straining Khan’s relations with the military
↘️ Deteriorated Situation | #India

Ethnic clashes in Manipur state in the north east killed scores of people and displaced tens of thousands, stoking the dormant separatist insurgency.
↘️ Deteriorated Situation | #Somalia

As military operations against Al-Shabaab’s Islamist insurgency reached a standstill, the group launched a major attack on an African Union military base, likely leaving dozens dead.
↘️ Deteriorated Situation | #Guinea

Changes in the military leadership revealed tensions at the highest levels of government, and deadly protests erupted following the failure of the mediation process between transitional military authorities and the opposition.
↘️ Deteriorated Situation | #Libya

Fighting between rival militias broke out in western Libya as moves to form a new executive heightened political tension, while also undermining a UN push to hold elections before the end of the year.
↘️ Deteriorated Situation | #Kosovo

Protests in Kosovo’s Serb-majority northern municipalities following tense April elections turned violent, injuring dozens of people, including NATO peacekeepers.
Unfortunately, CrisisWatch found no improved conflict situations ↗️ or conflict resolution opportunities 🕊️ for this month’s update.
Aside from the dozens of conflict situations we assess every month, we tracked significant developments in #Bahrain, #Benin, #Ecuador, #Guatemala, #Indonesia and #Senegal.
New Feature | Country in Focus: #Pakistan 🇵🇰

The government has opted for “all-out comprehensive operations” to root out the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which risks displacing thousands.
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More from @CrisisGroup

Jun 5
Our research on the links between climate, environment and conflict in #Somalia focuses on the impact of the devastating drought, compounded by conflict and Al-Shabaab’s harsh policies, on the displacement of millions.

🧵 for #WorldEnvironmentDay.
Deforestation in Somalia for wood burning and charcoal production leads to catastrophic consequences.

It exacerbates the effects of drought and floods and provides funding opportunities to the militant group Al-Shabaab.
According to @UNEP, deforestation threatens drought-tolerant trees like the Acacia.

For @HodderClimate, the regeneration of the environment is important for soil health and also to ease tensions over natural resource competition and reduce displacements.
unep.org/news-and-stori…
Read 10 tweets
May 15
The Spring update of @CrisisGroup's European Union Watch List is here.

Read on for recommendations from our analysts around the globe on how the EU can enhance prospects for peace in the #Sahel, #Kosovo and #Serbia, #Pakistan and #LatinAmerica: crisisgroup.org/global/watch-l…

🧵: 1/11 Image
The report starts with an introduction by @CrisisGroup CEO & President @EroComfort, where she highlights the role the EU can play in #Sudan, particularly by deterring outside actors from getting sucked into the fighting.
crisisgroup.org/global/preside…
.@EroComfort also writes about the EU's current top security priority: backing Ukraine to defend itself.

And even as the EU and member states continue supporting Ukraine, they should signal to Moscow that a path toward a negotiated settlement or ceasefire remains possible.
Read 11 tweets
Jan 6
In 2022, Russia’s war in Ukraine overshadowed much of global politics and other conflicts exacted a high toll, with the number of people fleeing violence reaching a new high.

But there’s also been good news!

Here are @CrisisGroup's 10 reasons to be hopeful in 2023 ⬇️ Image
1️⃣ The deal between 🇪🇹Ethiopia's government and Tigray leaders could end one of the world’s bloodiest conflicts and offer relief to millions in northern Ethiopia. Plenty could still go wrong, but any lull in the horrific violence is good news.

crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-af…
2️⃣ After 3 years of tension, 🇨🇴 Colombia and 🇻🇪Venezuela finally restored one of Latin America’s most important bilateral relations, providing opportunities to address ongoing security and humanitarian issues at the border.

crisisgroup.org/latin-america-…
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Jan 2
2022 was a year of horrible bloodshed for many countries.

For 2023, we compiled a list of 10 conflicts to watch – in partnership with @ForeignPolicy.

🧵 [1/12]
crisisgroup.org/global/10-conf…
1️⃣ #Ukraine 🇺🇦

After nearly a year of fighting, there is no end in sight for the war in Ukraine.

The West should continue its balancing act of backing Kyiv while avoiding a direct clash with Russia and keeping the door open to negotiations.
2️⃣ #NagornoKarabakh 🇦🇲- 🇦🇿

Neither Russian nor Western-sponsored talks have brought the sides closer to a sustainable agreement and clashes have continued.

The failure of talks could well result in renewed war.
Read 12 tweets
Dec 1, 2022
After a three-year rupture marked by vitriol, #Colombia and #Venezuela have resumed diplomatic relations.

Our newest report argues that, above all, the détente should generate significant benefits for citizens of both countries.

THREAD [1/6] 🧵👇
crisisgroup.org/latin-america-…
Rebuilding trust and redressing bilateral tensions will take time.

Coordination in health, security, trade, consular and other matters is vital to protecting public well-being, especially of #Venezuelan migrants and refugees in #Colombia. [2/6]
crisisgroup.org/latin-america-…
Negotiations with the #ELN, which restarted on 21 November, will depend to an extent on support from #Venezuela’s government, which is a guarantor and host of the talks but may be reluctant to terminate its partnership with the rebels. [3/6]
crisisgroup.org/latin-america-…
Read 6 tweets
Nov 30, 2022
🇭🇹1. The political crisis and gang violence in #Haiti are generating shortages and making basic products impossible to afford.

@ICGlatam is currently in #PortAuPrince and this is some of what it has seen of this escalating humanitarian crisis. 🧵👇
unicef.org/lac/en/press-r…
⛽️2. In mid-September, the G9 gang group blocked @TVarreux in #PortAuPrince, the country's main oil terminal. For 2 months, fuel could only be found in the informal market, where the price per gallon exceeded $30 USD (5,000 gourdes).
🚔3. On 3 November @PrimatureHT announced that @pnh_officiel had recovered @TVarreux. Although distribution to stations was restored days later, the gangs still control transportation routes and hinder the supply of fuel in the north and south of the country.
Read 8 tweets

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