Thread by @bctallis

#Germany’s first National Security Strategy was published today.

A short 🧵 of reflections on what is, overall, a disappointing document (even taking account of lower expectations) - but also has some interesting & positive points to work with.

nationalesicherheitsstrategie.de/en.html
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Many have summarised the content - but thats not my purpose here. For a summary - & also a quite different take, see @RikeFranke's thread here

https://twitter.com/RikeFranke/status/1668982920302800896?s=20

But, I want to draw attention to some other issues
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Even though there will be no national security council, this is clearly a strategy by committee - there are LOTS of very different items included [a fault of many other strategies too] but in this case there are competing worldviews trying to be squeezed into one document
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This is clearest in the unresolved tension on China - still referred to first as a partner but also as, increasingly a systemic rival and strategic competitor, which has also delayed the German govt's China strategy.

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It is also apparent in the presence of rhetoric of both bipolarity (& systemic rivalry, bloc formation) & multipolarity - & not quite finding a clear position for #Germany, certainly not one that would guide what to do if push comes to shove in Taiwan & sides must be taken
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This is indicative of a more general problem with the #NationaleSicherheitsstrategie
-as I told @washingtonpost earlier today
while it sees Germany doing more, it is more of the same approach that has seen the country fail to embrace its strategic position & remain reactive
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It also contains a lot of aspirations ... not least on 'properly equipping the Bundeswehr', but the 100bn special fund is nowhere near enough to do that, and the confusion over when & how the NATO 2% of GDP target will actually be reached doesn't help either.
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Yet the strategy repeatedly emphasises #Germany's "special responsibility" for European security -stemming from its history as well as size, economic weight & the commitment to liberal & democratic values it prioritises [of which more, later]
- But how will it live up to that?
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Beyond some nice language, there is not much that suggests how Germany will plug its very real capability and credibility gaps in security - and not much that would reassure allies in CEE that it will live up to its "special responsibility" for the European pillar of NATO
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Nor is there really much on how Germany will live up to its again stated "special responsibility" for security on NATO's Eastern Flank. CEE allies don't get mentioned and will not be reassured by being overlooked, especially when they have lead on Ukraine & securing NATO.
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There's also nothing on Ukrainian NATO membership.
BUT, and now we move onto the more positive aspects,
there is clear support for EU enlargement to Ukraine (& Moldova & Western Balkans) -even if it is hedged by the usual demands for treaty reform, which is going nowhere fast
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There is some very positive language, which has been pushed by the Greens & the Foreign Ministry, on values based policy & in a moment of #NeoIdealism the Strat notes that “It is in our fundamental interest to defend our values.” @ABaerbock doubled down on this in press con
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The best thing in the #NationaleSicherheitsstrategie IMO is the concept of "Integrated Security" - but this remains more potential than practice at this point and is undermined by the lack of clarity, competing objectives, unfunded aspirations & incredible promises in there
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Nonetheless, if it were substantiated & made consistent, this approach would be good. It makes useful links between economic security – in terms of livelihoods and peoples everyday needs, echoing the Biden administration’s ‘foreign policy for the middle class’ and ...
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It also makes meaningful connections in principle between the geopolitical, technological and ecological transitions. Were that to be combined with a more clear eyed view of systemic competition, why we need to win it, & the means to do so then it could be very effective.
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For now, however, while it contains a lot of admirable intentions the strategy is too much of a continuation of problematic tendencies in Germany's foreign and security policy - as well as giving space to endless quite obvious points that are repeated as mantra - on e.g. UN
/16

Overall, the strategy doesn’t a show a change of thinking commensurate with the challenge of the #Zeitenwende –but it does show that the fight to define what that change should be is ongoing between the parties of #Germany's coalition government.
nationalesicherheitsstrategie.de/en.html
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PS - This language was also refreshing & interesting to see - but needs backup
"We tackl[e] the challenges of our age with confidence and optimism ...
We want to shape our future together – in awareness of the risks, but with confidence and with every faith in our strengths."