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This blog offers one scenario: unrelated political crisis leads to more pragmatic Brexit. (But maybe as big a chance it would harden Brexit)
Other things equal, more rightwing candidate has a 2/3 chance over more moderate/pragmatic candidate in *Cons party choice* of next PM
Those hoping for more moderate/pragmatic approach to emerge from a change of PM would need one or more of the following things to happen
(1) Disrupt those trying to make it Remain v Leave on 2016 choices . (That way the moderate 'Remain' candidate loses the membership ballot)
(2) How?Either run liberal Leaver as mod candidate.Or project coalitions of support eg Davis-Hammond & Gove-Davidson that say "its not 2016"
(3) And/or: Expand the electorate. Organised effort to get pragmatic not hyperpartisan C2015 voters to join. BUT this maybe difficult..
Difficult: must join 3 months before contest is on. And *both wings* can expand the electorate. (The right may do this better than centre)
