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Sunder Katwala
@sundersays
, 7 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
This blog offers one scenario: unrelated political crisis leads to more pragmatic Brexit. (But maybe as big a chance it would harden Brexit)
Other things equal, more rightwing candidate has a 2/3 chance over more moderate/pragmatic candidate in *Cons party choice* of next PM
Those hoping for more moderate/pragmatic approach to emerge from a change of PM would need one or more of the following things to happen
(1) Disrupt those trying to make it Remain v Leave on 2016 choices . (That way the moderate 'Remain' candidate loses the membership ballot)
(2) How?Either run liberal Leaver as mod candidate.Or project coalitions of support eg Davis-Hammond & Gove-Davidson that say "its not 2016"
(3) And/or: Expand the electorate. Organised effort to get pragmatic not hyperpartisan C2015 voters to join. BUT this maybe difficult..
Difficult: must join 3 months before contest is on. And *both wings* can expand the electorate. (The right may do this better than centre)
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More from @sundersays see all

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Sunder Katwala
@sundersays
A scenario/theory: Britain to leave the European Union, with the Withdrawal Agreement deal, but slightly (about 4-6 weeks)
after the current March 29th 2019 deadline.

How this might happen ...
Jan 15th Commons vote proceeds. Government is defeated. Lets say its about 240 votes to 400 (majority 160). Opposition united against (bar a handful). Some opposition MPs explain they oppose both no deal & a referendum but are voting no with the Labour whip to this deal now.
PM says deal still in national interest: no alternatives to it. Labour calls for election: DUP says support govt on confidence. ERG declares confidence in gvt (calling for no deal). Pro-EU Cons confidence (call for referendum)
* Conf vote not put, or is survived. Majority 6-10.
Read 23 tweets
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Sunder Katwala
@sundersays
With the immigration white paper due to be published tomorrow, a thread of useful resources.

The government is responding to this Migration Advisory Committee report gov.uk/government/pub…

Summary of MAC recommendations
reuters.com/article/us-bri…
Immigration to the UK: facts from @migobs
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/brie…

There have been changes since the 2016 referendum, with a drop in net migration from the EU, with ONS reporting increased non-EU migration.
pbs.twimg.com/media/DtKhn0ZX…
Read 24 tweets
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Sunder Katwala
@sundersays
I think there are two (& only two) ways for an anti-no deal majority to "stop no deal"
(1) Vote for a deal (if not first time, then second time: maybe same deal or any variation/tweak)
(2) Persuade/"instruct" govt to seek extension/suspension of Article 50 (prob with EU consent)
(1) seems the more likely route: put the deal again. A deal ought to pass second time (in Dec/Jan), if efforts to call general election/referendum were voted on & fell short

(2) needs a reason/plan of what the agreed A50 extension is for: a referendum, or general election.
General election variant also needs to then turn into support for a withdrawal agreement deal, or a referendum (before extension expires, to prevent no deal)

(Or another agreed delay, before choosing a withdrawal deal or a referendum. Ad infinitum, but only if by mutual consent)
Read 12 tweets

Related threads

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
No10 says EU must decide if it will release a letter of assurances before the vote on Tuesday but EU sources tell me they are waiting for the go-ahead advice from Downing Street 1
The letter could have been released Saturday night ahead of No10 Sunday media blitz but wasn’t .. It could be released tonight or tomorrow ahead of vote .. OR EU/No10 may decide better not since 2
The EU letter will I’m told contain assurances/explanations of current deal and nothing new. The letter would come from Juncker/Tusk in Brussels and they can’t change the #Brexit deal without negotiation with and go ahead from 27 EU leaders 3
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
1) Pres Juncker just said on #Brexit "Don't force me to speculate, let me do what I can" (original in French: "laissez moi faire")
2) There’s talk of a Juncker/Tusk letter by Monday setting out EU reassurances on the backstop. This is not 100% confirmed
3) But Presidents Juncker and Tusk cannot unilaterally change the text or meaning of the #Brexit deal. It has been signed off by the 27 EU leaders and they need to be onboard and to agree to any changes
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Jack D 🌹| #GTTO | ✋🏽
@JackDunc1
#Brexit *Thread*

To clarify, I am remain, but I feel a 2nd ref is monumentally risky & perhaps dangerous:-

1. Polls haven't changed much, result could easily be the same
2. Another campaign of hate will embolden the far right
3. If remain win. Leavers will demand another vote
4. Chaos & unrest are likely whatever the result, possibly violence too

What happens if it's still 'Leave'? Picture the chaos, square one. You're simply allowing the Tories more time to fail to come up with a solution. Every day that continues people in this country will suffer
What if it's 'Remain'? Leavers will, with some justification, query why this vote is more valid than the first. This has the potential to cause a constitutional crisis.

People can say 'we know the facts now' all they like, that will not placate millions of angry voters.
Read 11 tweets
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Paul Chaplin #FBPE 🇪🇺
@CottlestonPie
I'm currently at this #Brexit conference in Copenhagen, where the British ambassador and several #DExEU officials will be on panels with representatives of Danish trade and security. It'll be very interesting to see what's said, especially in light of May's recent Munich speech.
And now that I'm not desperately trying to keep up with livetweeting it, I shall turn my mess of self-retweets into a proper thread. #Brexit #BrexitDK
acknowledges #Brexit will have challenges; emphasises no naïveté regarding "land of milk and honey". Refreshing sense of pragmatism; we'll see how #DExEU and DK reps present it.

#BrexitDK
Read 55 tweets
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Nina Schick
@NinaDSchick
'European Press Reaction,' to #Brexit thread time. It's been a while, always good get some perspective. (Will add more during the day). /1
Comment in @DLF, leads: "Britain's departure from the World Stage." - "Brexit is political idiocy. By today, every observer should have realised by now that the United Kingdom will not only leave the EU but, above all, leave the world stage."2/
.@DLF: "Brexit is the biggest political idiocy since the Roman Emperor Caligula decided to appoint his favorite horse Incitatus as consul. Anyone who needed further proof of this thesis has received it today." 3/
Read 18 tweets
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Nina Schick
@NinaDSchick
1. New round of #Brexit talks in Brussels today & #Prexit behind us, let's take stock of what EU papers are saying in Ep 100 of 'Nothing Has Changed.' (Thread.)
2. France's @LesEchos says TM is "increasingly fragile." Notes, "Clearly, chances that outstanding Brexit issues are resolved" in this round of talks "are close to nill." lesechos.fr/monde/europe/0…
3. @LesEchos: "The increasingly fragility of TM is a subject that's preoccupying the minds of EU leaders, who prefer to negotiate with a strong leader."
Read 21 tweets

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