Frustrating to see BBC journalists, Remainers & others believing/saying this £40bn is some additional bill for leaving.
It’s not. It’s settling costs we would’ve paid in EU anyway. Get it right.
BTW Brexit ‘dividend’ of 0.5% GDP is trivial compared to real Brexit costs [thread]
It’s not. It’s settling costs we would’ve paid in EU anyway. Get it right.
BTW Brexit ‘dividend’ of 0.5% GDP is trivial compared to real Brexit costs [thread]
Facts matter, people. You can’t just say “we’re paying £40bn for Brexit” as if we would not have paid this money if we voted Remain. It’s commitments we signed up to - and a chunk is for Single Market access, science, etc bringing considerable returns.
The supposed dividend of Brexit (£350m/week) was false. But let’s put it in easier terms:
All countries commit 1% of GDP to EU budget. With UK - about half of that is returned in obvious payments.
That means that if Brexit costs more than 0.5% GDP - it’s a money-loser.
All countries commit 1% of GDP to EU budget. With UK - about half of that is returned in obvious payments.
That means that if Brexit costs more than 0.5% GDP - it’s a money-loser.
So... just the recent Govt budget showed growth slashed by 0.5% year on year because of Brexit (and remember growth is cumulative).
That’s before you think about the £ devaluation, which adds £1bn/year on NHS purchases alone... now think of other Govt & UK biz purchases abroad.
That’s before you think about the £ devaluation, which adds £1bn/year on NHS purchases alone... now think of other Govt & UK biz purchases abroad.
Done? Good - now add in:
- Extra civ service/ consultant hiring x those salaries for 2 depts (DExEU, DIT)
- Opportunity cost of focus on Brexit to other national probs
- Loss of EMA, EBA & assoc infrastructure
- Replication of dozens of EU agencies...
-
- Extra civ service/ consultant hiring x those salaries for 2 depts (DExEU, DIT)
- Opportunity cost of focus on Brexit to other national probs
- Loss of EMA, EBA & assoc infrastructure
- Replication of dozens of EU agencies...
-
- Added difficulties in hiring EU staff across Unis, farming, tech, NHS, hospitality
- Sluggish FDI due to ongoing uncertainty
- new restructuring Home Office will need for new immigration scheme (and assoc help desks in unis & businesses)
- Sluggish FDI due to ongoing uncertainty
- new restructuring Home Office will need for new immigration scheme (and assoc help desks in unis & businesses)
And this is meant to “free” industries to deregulate, when those industries (pharma, chemical, manufacturing, services) actually want to remain aligned with EU standards...
... and do desperate trade deals with a market power of 65m instead of 510m & hefty experience.
... and do desperate trade deals with a market power of 65m instead of 510m & hefty experience.
That’s why Brexit is so expensive.... It’s a complete clusterfucking of our entire multifaceted economy for a chickenfeed 0.5% dividend and no extra money either from deregulation nor added trade deal opportunities... rather, any UK-US deal is likely to be very one way.
Oh- and the UK-EU trade deal is going to be lesser than what we have now... so... 🤦🏻♂️
