The Senate has 51 Republicans. To get a veto-proof bill, they would need to get at least 15 Democrats, but probably more like 19 or 20 to account for the tea party right wingers in the R caucus who would probably vote no at all costs and the cowardly flip-floppers who might bail.
That means they need a bill that gets more than the Joe Manchins and Heidi Heitkamps. They have to eat into the caucus that includes potential 2020 candidates. That would need to be a pretty generous bill.
What activists will do if they are smart is immediately move forward from the #TrumpShutdown. Let Republicans go on cable TV and pretend this worked out well for them, which is absurd. FOCUS ON WHAT WILL BE IN THAT BILL. Make Democrats cut a smart, good deal.
Civil rights activists fought like hell to get a solid civil rights bill... in 1957. They wound up with a half-bill. Then they went back on the battlefield and vote for a comprehensive civil and voting rights bill in 1963. JFK was taking too long so they marched on Washington.
After JFK's assassination, LBJ finally delivered a bipartisan civil rights bill in 1964, but with the teeth cut out of the voting rights section to get it past the insane right wing southern Democrats. Civil rights activists didn't sulk.
They went back on the battlefield in Selma and fought for a voting rights bill in 1965. Somebody ask @repjohnlewis about it. He'll tell you! Activism is long, hard work. The battles you win will seem small in the moment.
But the key is to not ever let the other side convince you they're winning when they are not. Compassionate Americans just won a small but important battle. The CHIP hostages are freed. There is a chance for an immigration bill.
Keep pushing the party that is the most open to your influence and keep fighting the other side like hell. Seriously, this is how this kind of a fight works. Just some advice from a history buff.
